Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira UFC Odds & AI Pick

Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira Fight Analysis

Introduction

Get ready for an explosive Bantamweight showdown when Mario Bautista clashes with Vinicius Oliveira on Saturday, February 7, 2026, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This pivotal bout is slated as part of the Main Card, with the octagon door officially opening at 10 p.m. ET (7 p.m. PT). Fight fans across the globe will tune in to witness two of the division’s most dynamic finishers lock horns in what promises to be a high‐octane affair.

Date & Time: Saturday, February 7, 2026 • Doors open at 10 p.m. ET
Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lb)
Fight Order: Main Card

The Favorite and the Underdog

In the betting markets, Mario Bautista enters as the clear favorite, listed around –200 with BetOnline.ag, reflecting bettor confidence in his well‐rounded skill set and relentless wrestling pedigree. Bautista (16–3–0) has earned his #9 divisional ranking by stringing together five wins in six UFC appearances, including a hard‐fought split decision over former champion José Aldo and a unanimous nod vs. Ricky Simon. The 32-year-old from Winnemucca, Nevada, combines a 49% significant strike accuracy and a 33% takedown success rate, boasting quick transitions to submissions with six career submission victories.

Opposite him stands the hungry underdog, Vinicius Oliveira, priced at +170, who has surged up the ranks through a 23–3–0 pro record and a reputation for explosive finishes. The 30-year-old Brazilian is riding a four-fight winning streak inside the octagon, all by stoppage or dominant decision, showcasing 16 knockout victories and an impressive 50% takedown conversion rate. Oliveira’s ability to threaten both on the feet and in transitions makes him a dangerous challenger capable of upsetting the odds.

What’s at Stake

This contest carries significant implications for the Bantamweight title picture. A victory for Bautista could propel him into the top-five conversation and earn him a crack at another ranked adversary or even a title eliminator. For Oliveira, toppling a surging contender like Bautista would cement his own top-ten status and set him on a rapid upward trajectory toward championship contention.

Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Bautista’s wrestling base and composure under pressure against Oliveira’s aggressive striking and high‐pace finishing instincts. With the Apex’s intimate setting and UFC’s global audience watching, every strike, takedown, and scramble could tip the scales in this must-see Bantamweight clash. Strap in for a five-round battle that has all the makings of a modern classic.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Individual Fighter Profiles

Mario Bautista – The Freestyle Submission Specialist

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling with slick submission transitions

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Oct. 25, 2025: Loss vs. Umar Nurmagomedov – Decision (Unanimous)
• June 7, 2025: Loss vs. Patrick Mix – Decision (Unanimous)
• Oct. 5, 2024: Win vs. José Aldo – Decision (Split)
• Jan. 13, 2024: Win vs. Ricky Simon – Decision (Unanimous)
• Aug. 19, 2023: Win vs. Damon Blackshear – Decision (Unanimous)

Bautista enters this bout riding a roller-coaster five-fight span in which his wrestling pedigree and grappling prowess have shone through, but recent back-to-back decision losses signal potential holes in his game plan.

Strengths

• Submission Threat: 6 career submission victories; constantly hunts chokes and armbars once he secures top position.
• Striking Accuracy: 49% significant strike accuracy, above the Bantamweight average; picks his shots well to set up takedowns.
• Cardio & Pressure: A 10:08 average fight time demonstrates ability to maintain pace across three rounds, suffocating opponents against the cage.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defence (55%): Allows nearly half of opponents’ takedown attempts, which can expose him to ground control and damage.
• Striking Defense (55%): Below‐average significant strike defense makes him susceptible to counters, especially from power punchers.
• Predictability: Relies heavily on wrestling entries; high‐level fighters have begun to anticipate his shots and nullify his offense.

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Vinicius Oliveira – The Brazilian Finishing Machine

Age: 30
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Aggressive striker with heavy hands and opportunistic grappling

Recent Form (Last 4 UFC Fights)

• July 19, 2025: Win vs. Kyler Phillips – Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb. 1, 2025: Win vs. Said Nurmagomedov – Decision (Unanimous)
• June 29, 2024: Win vs. Ricky Simon – Decision (Unanimous)
• Mar. 2, 2024: Win vs. Benardo Sopaj – KO/TKO (Round 3, 4:41)

Oliveira boasts a perfect 4–0 run in the UFC, showcasing both power and durability. His streak of stoppages and dominant decisions underlines a versatile finishing arsenal.

Strengths

• Explosive Power: 16 knockouts in 23 wins; carries knockout threat from the first bell.
• Takedown Defense (80%): One of the division’s best in stuffing takedowns, forcing opponents to stand and trade.
• Finishing Instincts: 14 first-round finishes indicate ability to capitalize on early openings and overwhelm opponents before they find a rhythm.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (43%): Tends to miss more than half of his significant strikes, which can lead to stamina depletion in later rounds.
• Submission Game (2 wins): While capable, he has fewer submission victories and may struggle against high-level grapplers if taken down.
• Late-Round Pace: Longer average fight time (12:33) combined with aggressive starts could translate into cardio issues if the bout drags into deep waters.

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Head-to-Head Outlook

This clash of contrasting styles pits Bautista’s wrestling and submission acumen against Oliveira’s knockout power and takedown defense. Bautista must overcome Oliveira’s striking and veteran savvy to impose his grappling; Oliveira needs to defend the takedowns and land heavy hands to keep Bautista honest on the feet. The dynamic interplay of strengths and weaknesses makes this Bantamweight matchup a high-stakes chess match with explosive potential in every exchange.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As we head into the Bantamweight attraction between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira, the consensus on BetOnline.ag has Bautista installed as the clear favorite at -200, while Oliveira sits on the plus‐money side at +170. That line difference reflects the market’s belief that Bautista carries a roughly two‐thirds chance to emerge victorious, whereas Oliveira is viewed as a live underdog with about a one‐in‐three shot.

• Mario Bautista (–200): Heavily backed for his wrestling base, submission prowess, and top‐10 ranking.
• Vinicius Oliveira (+170): Underdog status despite a perfect 4–0 run in the UFC, thanks to his knockout power and elite takedown defense.

Line Movement Analysis

Examining the odds history on BetOnline.ag reveals some moderate swings over the past 24 hours:

Mario Bautista:

• Jan. 26, 18:09 ET: –200
• Jan. 26, 18:19 ET: –180
• Jan. 26, 18:33 ET: –190
• Jan. 26, 19:28 ET: –175
• Jan. 27, 05:20 ET: –185
• Jan. 27, 07:49 ET: –200

Vinicius Oliveira:

• Jan. 26, 18:09 ET: +170
• Jan. 26, 18:19 ET: +155
• Jan. 26, 18:33 ET: +165
• Jan. 26, 19:28 ET: +150
• Jan. 27, 05:20 ET: +160
• Jan. 27, 07:49 ET: +170

Key observations:

• Both fighters saw their odds tighten and then loosen as early money came in on each side.
• Oliveira dipped from +170 down to +150—suggesting a flurry of bets driving the line in his favor—before sharp bettors circled back to take Bautista as the public money cooled off.
• Bautista’s line followed a mirror pattern, softening to –175 before drifting back to –200 as his supporters jumped back in.

These fluctuations signal active money on both sides, indicating an engaged betting public and potential late‐line value for sharp bettors willing to shop around.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager:

• Mario Bautista (–200): A winning bet returns $1,500 total (your $1,000 stake plus $500 profit).
• Vinicius Oliveira (+170): A winning bet returns $2,700 total (your $1,000 stake plus $1,700 profit).

In plain terms, the market assigns Bautista roughly a 67% chance of victory and Oliveira around 37%, making Oliveira an enticing long‐shot option for bettors seeking higher upside.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

While line shopping remains crucial, BetOnline.ag currently posts some of the most competitive moneylines for this matchup. Their odds history shows consistent liquidity and relatively tight spreads—ideal for bettors looking to enter and exit positions with minimal slippage. If you prefer exploring alternative markets (prop bets, round‐by‐round pricing, etc.), consider comparing BetOnline.ag’s lines against top-tier books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. However, for pure head-to-head pricing on this card, BetOnline.ag offers one of the cleanest, deepest markets.

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In a fight where stylistic contrasts collide, the betting line ebb and flow can be just as telling as the strike stats. Whether you side with the established favorite or chase the underdog’s upside, keep an eye on late‐breaking shifts—especially if sharp money starts to tilt the odds again in the hours leading up to fight time.