UFC 326: Borralho vs de Ridder Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder fight analysis

Event Overview

Get ready for a pivotal Middleweight showdown when Caio Borralho (#7) collides with Reinier de Ridder (#8) on the Main Card of UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2. The action goes down at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday, March 7, 2026, with the bell scheduled to ring at 8:00 PM PT / 11:00 PM ET. This clash carries significant divisional ramifications: a victory propels the winner toward title contention, while a loss could derail momentum in one of MMA’s most talent-packed weight classes.

Fighters to Watch

• Caio Borralho (17–2–0)
  • Age: 32 | Height: 6′1″ | Reach: 75″
  • Hailing from Maranhão, Brazil, Borralho has posted an impressive 17–2 UFC ledger—boasting 5 knockouts and 4 submissions. His 56% striking accuracy and 77% takedown defense make him both a potent offensive threat and a difficult puzzle to solve.

• Reinier de Ridder (21–3–0)
  • Age: 35 | Height: 6′4″ | Reach: 78″
  • The Dutch Jiu-Jitsu specialist holds a 21–3 professional record and has finished 13 opponents via submission. De Ridder’s 53% striking accuracy and willingness to push the pace for first-round finishes (11 total) underscore his finishing instincts.

Betting Odds & Stakes

As the betting markets have opened, Borralho is the clear favorite, trading between –250 and –285 across major sportsbooks (Bovada: –280; BetOnline.ag: –270; DraftKings: –250; FanDuel: –265). His combination of polished striking, elite takedown defense, and youth edge make him a -280 favorite at Bovada.
In contrast, Reinier de Ridder sits comfortably in underdog territory at +200 to +230 (Bovada: +230; BetOnline.ag: +230; DraftKings: +205; FanDuel: +200). Despite his grappling pedigree and finishing prowess, bettors remain skeptical about his ability to impose his game plan against a wrestler-savvy opponent with high-level takedown defense.

Why This Matters

This bout represents a critical crossroads for both men. A win over de Ridder would bolster Borralho’s case for a top-five matchup or even a title eliminator, keeping his championship hopes alive. Conversely, de Ridder can silence the doubters who view him as an undersized grappler by toppling a surging contender and showcasing his complete MMA arsenal. Whichever way the judges—or the referee—decide, UFC 326 promises a high-stakes encounter that could reshape the Middleweight hierarchy.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

1. Caio Borralho Profile

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a wrestling base

Borralho burst onto the UFC scene in April 2022 and has quickly climbed to No. 7 in the Middleweight division. Standing 6’1″ with a 75″ reach, he combines disciplined striking with strong takedown defense.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs Nassourdine Imavov (Decision – Unanimous) – Sep. 6, 2025
2. Win vs Jared Cannonier (Decision – Unanimous) – Aug. 24, 2024
3. Win vs Paul Craig (KO/TKO, R2 2:10) – May 4, 2024
4. Win vs Abus Magomedov (Decision – Unanimous) – Nov. 4, 2023
5. Win vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (Submission, R2 2:49) – Apr. 29, 2023

Borralho enters this bout riding a four-fight win streak, punctuated by crisp striking and dogged pace.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (56%) and Defense (60%): He lands over half his significant strikes and blocks 60% incoming strikes, making him a tough target.
• Takedown Defense (77%): Elite level prevents most wrestling attacks.
• Takedown Offense (48%): Nearly half of his shooting attempts are successful, allowing him to mix levels effectively.
• Submission Output (4 total): While competent, Borralho’s grappling is more control-oriented than finisher-oriented—he lacks de Ridder’s 13 submissions.
• First-Round Finishes (6) against Average Fight Time (14:04) suggest he can start fast but often grinds to decisions against top competition.

2. Reinier de Ridder Profile

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: Netherlands
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist

At 6’4″ with a 78″ reach, de Ridder leverages length and elite grappling to dominate opponents. He debuted in the UFC in November 2024 and is ranked No. 8.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Loss vs Brendan Allen (KO/TKO, R4 5:00) – Oct. 18, 2025
2. Win vs Robert Whittaker (Decision – Split) – Jul. 26, 2025
3. Win vs Bo Nickal (KO/TKO, R2 1:53) – May 3, 2025
4. Win vs Kevin Holland (Submission, R1 3:31) – Jan. 18, 2025
5. Win vs Gerald Meerschaert (Submission, R3 1:44) – Nov. 9, 2024

De Ridder’s four-fight win streak showcased his ability to finish fights on the feet and on the ground—until the Allen setback.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Submissions (13): His biggest weapon—he boasts more submission wins than anyone in the top 10.
• First-Round Finishes (11): Explosive starter with high fight-ending IQ early.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (53%): Solid but not elite—translates to effective ground-and-pound when he lands.
• Takedown Accuracy (30%) and Defense (50%): Vulnerable to wrestlers who can defend or mix levels. His 50% takedown defense leaves openings for high-pressure wrestlers like Borralho.
• Average Fight Time (13:26): Indicates he often pushes deep into later rounds, but recovery from the Allen loss may be a concern.

3. Comparative Analysis

• Striking Battle: Borralho holds the edge in both accuracy and defense, forcing de Ridder to either walk into counters or rely on his grappling.
• Grappling Exchange: De Ridder’s submission pedigree is unmatched, but Borralho’s 77% takedown defense could stifle early ground assaults.
• Cardio & Durability: Both athletes have proven gas tanks, yet de Ridder’s late-round vulnerability (as seen in the Allen bout) contrasts with Borralho’s consistent pace over 25 minutes.
• X-Factor: De Ridder’s length and guillotine entries versus Borralho’s capacity to stuff takedowns and punish over-reaching strikers.

This stylistic chess match pits Borralho’s all-around athleticism against de Ridder’s specialist grappling—setting the stage for a fascinating Middleweight clash.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

Heading into UFC 326, Caio Borralho is the clear favorite, while Reinier de Ridder occupies underdog status across the board:

• Caio Borralho (Favorite)

• Bovada: –280
• BetOnline.ag: –270
• BetRivers: –265
• DraftKings: –250
• FanDuel: –265

• Reinier de Ridder (Underdog)

• Bovada: +230
• BetOnline.ag: +230
• BetRivers: +205
• DraftKings: +205
• FanDuel: +200

The gap between favorite and underdog ranges from 450 to 515 points in American odds. Borralho’s shortest price is –280 (Bovada), while de Ridder’s longest is +230 (Bovada and BetOnline.ag).

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the opening lines and shifts reveals how money has flowed:

• Caio Borralho

• Bovada opened at –285, briefly drifted to –280, then oscillated back to –285 before settling at –280.
• BetOnline.ag started at –251, surged to –280 as substantial bets hit on Borralho, and has since stabilized around –270.

• Reinier de Ridder

• Bovada opened around +235 on Feb. 16, slid to +230 with moderate backers, and remains there.
• BetOnline.ag’s line moved dramatically from +211 up to +240 (as early contrarian money came in) before retracing to +230.

No single book has seen wild daily swings beyond 30–40 points, but BetOnline.ag’s early swing on de Ridder (+211 → +240) stands out as a betlisting anomaly. Overall, sharp action on Borralho trimmed his odds by about five to ten points across most sportsbooks, while underdog support on de Ridder briefly inflated his line before it normalized.

Betting Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 on either fighter at the best available line, here’s what you’d get back:

• Betting on Borralho at –250 (DraftKings)

• Payout: $1,400 total return (your $1,000 stake + $400 profit)
• Implied Win Probability: ~71%

• Betting on de Ridder at +230 (Bovada / BetOnline.ag)

• Payout: $3,300 total return (your $1,000 stake + $2,300 profit)
• Implied Win Probability: ~30%

Best Sportsbook Picks

• Favorite (Borralho): DraftKings at –250 offers the highest potential payout for a heavy favorite.
• Underdog (de Ridder): Bovada and BetOnline.ag at +230 deliver the biggest upside on the underdog.

Whether you back the surging Brazilian or bet on the grappling specialist to pull off the upset, the current lines and recent movement show where the smart money has gone—and where the best value still lies.