UFC 326: Garbrandt vs Xiao Long Odds & AI Pick

Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Sunday, March 8, 2026, fight fans will tune in for an intriguing bantamweight clash as Cody Garbrandt takes on Xiao Long on the Preliminary Card of UFC 326, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The bout is officially slated to kick off when the prelims go live—typically around 8:00 PM PT (03:00 AM UTC)—and promises fireworks as two proven finishers collide under the bright lights of Sin City. Although Garbrandt once held gold in the 135-pound division, tonight he enters as the underdog, with sportsbooks like DraftKings offering him +130 odds. Standing across the Octagon, Xiao Long has steadily climbed the ranks, betting markets peg him as the favorite (around –155 to –160 across Bovada, BetRivers, DraftKings and BetOnline.ag), a reflection of his three-fight UFC tenure highlighted by a third-round KO over Quang Le in November 2024.

Why This Fight Matters

• Both fighters share identical height and weight at 5'8" and 136 lbs, yet their styles could not be more contrasting—Garbrandt’s frenetic, high-octane freestyle striking versus Xiao Long’s measured, technical approach.
• Garbrandt (14-7-0, 11 KO victories) is hunting to reverse a two-fight skid, dropping unanimous decisions to Raoni Barcelos (June 2025) and a submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo (April 2024). His power, reflected in eight first-round finishes, remains elite, but he must find defensive answers to avoid Xiao Long’s counters.
• Xiao Long (27-10-0) brings a diverse arsenal of finishes—five by knockout and nine by submission—alongside a respectable 46% significant strike accuracy and 80% takedown defense. Despite a razor-close split decision loss to Chang Ho Lee in June 2024 and a unanimous decision setback versus Suyoung Yu (August 2025), he has showcased an ability to adapt and grind out results in deep waters.

Betting Implications

With Xiao Long opening as a –160 favorite at Bovada and Cody Garbrandt hovering around +135 on the same board, line shoppers will find small variations—BetRivers lists Xiao Long at –157, while Garbrandt checks in at +125—but the consensus firmly backs the Chinese striker. Oddsmakers reward Xiao Long’s undefeated status on UFC soil and his well-rounded toolkit, whereas Garbrandt’s best path to victory remains a violent early onslaught to keep the fight standing and prevent grappling exchanges.

As the prelim card unfolds beneath the T-Mobile Arena lights, bettors and fans alike should focus on how fast Garbrandt can impose his power versus whether Xiao Long can dictate the range, land clean counters and avoid danger. This fight promises to set the tone for UFC 326, making it a must-watch—and a must-bet—for anyone following the bantamweight division’s ever-evolving landscape.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Fighter Profiles

Cody Garbrandt (Red Corner)

• Age: 33
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Freestyle striker with wrestling pedigree
• Physical Attributes: Height 5’8” (68 in), Weight 136 lb, Reach 65.5 in (arm), 38 in (leg)
• UFC Record: 14–7–0
• Key Stats
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 40%
  • Significant Strike Defense: 60%
  • Takedown Accuracy: 28%
  • Takedown Defense: 84%
  • Average Fight Time: 10:02
  • Finishes: 11 KOs, 0 submissions, 8 first-round stoppages

Xiao Long (Blue Corner)

• Age: 27
• Country: China
• Fighting Style: Traditional striker with submission arsenal
• Physical Attributes: Height 5’8” (68 in), Weight 136 lb, Reach 70 in (arm), 37 in (leg)
• UFC Record: 27–10–0
• Key Stats
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 46%
  • Significant Strike Defense: 50%
  • Takedown Accuracy: 25%
  • Takedown Defense: 80%
  • Average Fight Time: 14:25
  • Finishes: 5 KOs, 9 submissions, 5 first-round stoppages

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Recent Form

Cody Garbrandt’s Last Five Bouts

1. Loss vs. Raoni Barcelos (Jun. 14, 2025) — Decision (Unanimous)
2. Loss vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Apr. 13, 2024) — Submission (R2, 4:02)
3. Win vs. Brian Kelleher (Dec. 16, 2023) — KO/TKO (R1, 3:42)
4. Win vs. Trevin Jones (Mar. 4, 2023) — Decision (Unanimous)
5. Loss vs. Kai Kara-France (Dec. 11, 2021) — KO/TKO (R1, 3:21)

Cody has alternated between explosive first-round finishes and tough setbacks. His last two UFC appearances ended in decision defeats, highlighting durability but exposing gaps in pace and grappling exchanges.

Xiao Long’s Last Three Bouts

1. Loss vs. Suyoung Yu (Aug. 23, 2025) — Decision (Unanimous)
2. Win vs. Quang Le (Nov. 23, 2024) — KO/TKO (R3, 1:28)
3. Loss vs. Chang Ho Lee (Jun. 22, 2024) — Decision (Split)

Xiao Long has split his past three outings, showcasing a potent late-round finishing kick in November 2024 but falling short on judges’ scorecards twice. His ability to mix submissions and striking under pressure has been on full display.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Cody Garbrandt

Strengths

• Power & Finishing: 79% of wins by KO, eight first-round stoppages.
• Defense: Solid significant strike defense (60%) and elite takedown defense (84%).
• Pace: Quick starter—average fight ends at 10:02—ideal for overwhelming opponents early.

Weaknesses

• Accuracy: At 40%, his significant strike accuracy trails Xiao Long’s, leading to wasted energy when missing.
• Cardio in Deep Rounds: Two outside decision losses highlight potential cardio gaps beyond Round 2.
• Grappling Offense: Takedown accuracy (28%) is only marginally better than Xiao Long’s, making wrestling exchanges risky.

Xiao Long

Strengths

• Versatility: Nine submission wins supplement five KOs—dangerous both standing and on the mat.
• Reach Advantage: +4.5 inches on Garbrandt, helping him control distance with jabs and kicks.
• Durability & Defense: Respectable strike defense (50%) and solid takedown defense (80%) keep him out of harm’s way.

Weaknesses

• Slow Starts: Two decision losses imply slow early rounds or difficulty imposing game plans immediately.
• Takedown Offense: Only 25% accuracy—struggles to force wrestling exchanges or sap opponents’ energy.
• Finishing Consistency: Five first-round finishes over 37 fights (14%) suggest fewer early stoppages than Garbrandt.

This stylistic and statistical breakdown sets the stage for a classic striker-vs-striker showdown. Watch for Garbrandt’s explosive openings against Xiao Long’s reach and technical precision—a clash that could pivot on the first major exchange.

Odds Breakdown and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Xiao Long firmly holds the favorite role across major sportsbooks. Here’s a snapshot of the top lines:

• Bovada: –160
• BetRivers: –157
• DraftKings: –155
• BetOnline.ag: –150

On the flip side, Cody Garbrandt sits as the clear underdog:

• Bovada: +135
• BetRivers: +125
• DraftKings: +130
• BetOnline.ag: +130

• Favorite vs. Underdog: Xiao Long’s negative-moneyline odds signal that he’s expected to win, while Garbrandt’s plus-moneyline figures indicate a powerful payout for those backing the former champion.

• Best Sportsbook to Back Each Fighter:
– For Xiao Long, BetOnline.ag at –150 offers the juiciest price (least vig), turning each $150 wager into a $100 win.
– For Cody Garbrandt, Bovada’s +135 is the top pick, rewarding a $100 bet with a $135 profit if the American scores the upset.

Odds History and Line Movement

A look at BetOnline.ag’s historical lines reveals substantial shifts that mirror market confidence swings:

Xiao Long (BetOnline.ag)

• Feb. 12, 17:49: –210
• Feb. 12, 18:11: –185
• Feb. 12, 19:40: –165
• Feb. 12, 21:20: –146
• Feb. 22, 11:10: –156
• Feb. 22, 14:20: –145
• Feb. 22, 15:00: –130
• Feb. 22, 18:20: –140
• Feb. 23, 08:11: –150

Cody Garbrandt (BetOnline.ag)

• Feb. 12, 17:49: +180
• Feb. 12, 18:11: +160
• Feb. 12, 19:40: +145
• Feb. 12, 21:20: +126
• Feb. 22, 11:10: +136
• Feb. 22, 14:20: +125
• Feb. 22, 15:00: +110
• Feb. 22, 18:20: +120
• Feb. 23, 08:11: +130

Key takeaways:

• Xiao Long opened as a heavy –210 favorite but has eased to around –150, suggesting serious money has come in on Garbrandt.
• Garbrandt’s line responded accordingly, moving from +180 all the way down to +130 before a small late drift back upwards.

Payouts and Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 on the line:

• Backing Xiao Long at the best –150 odds (BetOnline.ag) turns your wager into $1,666.67 total return (that’s $666.67 profit plus your $1,000 stake).
• Betting Cody Garbrandt at +135 (Bovada) would pay out $2,350 total (you’d net $1,350 profit plus the original $1,000).

In plain terms, the market suggests Xiao Long carries roughly a 60–63% chance to win, while Garbrandt sits near 42–44%—a cushion for bettors who believe the former champion can reclaim glory. Whether you fade the favorite for a bigger payday or back the market pick, these lines and their movements offer clear insight into public sentiment and value opportunities as UFC 326 draws near.