Sumudaerji vs Aguilar Odds & AI Pick | UFC 326

## Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar Fight Analysis

As the **Early Preliminary Card** lights up the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on **March 7, 2026**, fight fans will be treated to a compelling **Flyweight** matchup between China’s rising striker **Su Mudaerji** and Mexico’s submission specialist **Jesus Santos Aguilar**. This bout is officially part of **UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2** and is slated to begin at **22:00 UTC** (approximately 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT), setting the stage for a high-pace clash on the T-Mobile Arena canvas.

Heading into this contest, **Su Mudaerji** enters as the **clear favorite**, with American sportsbooks listing him around **–240 to –250** in the head-to-head markets. The 29-year-old southpaw made an explosive UFC debut on December 31, 2025, and holds an **18-7-0** professional record, including **13 knockout victories** and **11 stoppages in Round 1**. Standing at 5’8″ with a 72″ reach, Mudaerji boasts a **52% significant strike accuracy** and a **61% defense rate**, making him one of the most technically polished strikers in the 125-pound division.

On the other side of the octagon, **Jesus Aguilar** is firmly cast as the **underdog**, with odds drifting between **+185** and **+210** across BetOnline.ag, DraftKings and Bovada. Aguilar (12-3-0) is a feared grappler who has finished 7 opponents by submission, including a slick triangle choke victory in his last outing against Stewart Nicoll. At 5’4″ with a 62.5″ reach, the 29-year-old Ensenada native compensates for his shorter frames with a **40% striking accuracy** and a **63% strike defense**, combining unorthodox freestyle wrestling with a nose for submissions in scrambles.

This matchup represents a stylistic crossroads: Mudaerji is likely to keep the fight at distance, leveraging his length and heavy leg kicks, whereas Aguilar will look to close the gap, drive Mudaerji to the fence and bring the fight to the mat. Oddsmakers clearly favor the Chinese striker’s powerful stand-up game—BetOnline.ag’s line has shifted from –215 on February 18 to –240 as of February 23—while DraftKings has Aguilar at +185, reflecting confidence in his ground-and-pound approach but acknowledging the uphill battle he faces against Mudaerji’s superior size and striking pedigree.

With both men aged 29 and eager to break into the Flyweight Top 15, this clash on the early prelims could prove pivotal for their UFC trajectories. Will Su Mudaerji’s knockout power and technical striking keep Aguilar at bay, or can Jesus Santos Aguilar smother the offense and secure a career-defining submission upset? The odds favor Mudaerji, but in the unpredictable world of MMA, one well-placed scramble or clinch exchange could turn the tide in Las Vegas.  

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

## Matchup and Fighter Profiles

### Su Mudaerji Profile

**Age:** 29  
**Country:** China  
**Fighting Style:** Striker / Southpaw  

**Background & Physical Tools**  
- Record: 18-7-0 (13 KOs, 0 submissions)  
- Height: 5’8″ (68 in) | Reach: 72″  
- UFC Debut: Dec. 31, 2025  

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):**  
1. Aug. 23, 2025 – **Win** vs. Kevin Borjas (Decision – Unanimous)  
2. Apr. 12, 2025 – **Win** vs. Mitch Raposo (Decision – Split)  
3. Oct. 19, 2024 – **Loss** vs. Charles Johnson (Decision – Unanimous)  
4. Dec. 9, 2023 – **Loss** vs. Tim Elliott (Submission – R1)  
5. Jul. 16, 2022 – **Loss** vs. Matt Schnell (Submission – R2)  

**Strengths**  
- **Power & Finishing Ability:** Su Mudaerji has converted 72% of his wins by knockout (13 of 18), often utilizing a punishing leg‐kick game and heavy counter‐punches.  
- **Striking Accuracy:** He lands 52% of his significant strikes, well above the Flyweight average, enabling him to pick his spots rather than brawl.  
- **Durability & Defense:** With a 61% significant strike defense rate, Mudaerji weathers volume and counters effectively, making opponents pay for mistakes.  
- **Cardio & Pressure:** Averaging a 10:42 fight time, he maintains a constant forward pace, using feints and angles to break opponent rhythm.  

**Weaknesses**  
- **Ground Vulnerability:** Two of his seven career losses have come via first‐or second‐round submission—Tim Elliott clipped him with an arm‐triangle choke and Matt Schnell secured a rear‐naked choke—highlighting inexperience in deep grappling exchanges.  
- **Takedown Offense:** His takedown accuracy sits at just 11%, so if he chooses to mix levels, he struggles to establish top control or ground-and-pound.  
- **Early Round Sharpness:** In his three recent decision wins, Mudaerji started cautiously, allowing competitors to find distance; Aguilar may exploit those early lapses.

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### Jesus Santos Aguilar Profile

**Age:** 29  
**Country:** Mexico  
**Fighting Style:** Freestyle Wrestler / Submission Specialist  

**Background & Physical Tools**  
- Record: 12-3-0 (1 KO, 7 submissions)  
- Height: 5’4″ (64 in) | Reach: 62.5″  
- UFC Debut: Feb. 4, 2023  

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):**  
1. Sep. 13, 2025 – **Win** vs. Luis Gurule (Decision – Unanimous)  
2. Feb. 15, 2025 – **Loss** vs. Rafael Estevam (Decision – Unanimous)  
3. Aug. 17, 2024 – **Win** vs. Stewart Nicoll (Submission – R1)  
4. Feb. 24, 2024 – **Win** vs. Mateus Mendonca (Decision – Split)  
5. Jul. 8, 2023 – **Win** vs. Shannon Ross (KO/TKO – R1)  

**Strengths**  
- **Elite Grappling & Submissions:** With 7 submission wins on his ledger, Aguilar thrives in scrambles and transitions—he finishes 58% of his victories by tap-out.  
- **Striking Defense:** He defends 63% of incoming significant strikes, making him tough to tag cleanly during takedown entries.  
- **Aggressive Opening:** Four first-round finishes in 12 wins indicate he can capitalize quickly on opponent miscues and secure early fight control.  
- **Cardio:** His fights average just over nine minutes, yet he demonstrates the gas tank to push pace and chain takedowns late in rounds.

**Weaknesses**  
- **Striking Offense & Power:** Aguilar’s striking accuracy is a modest 40%, and he has only one knockout win—he lacks the power to deter a heavy hitter like Mudaerji.  
- **Takedown Defense:** He defends just 49% of opponent takedown attempts, a critical liability against a striker who can dive for level changes or dirty-box in the clinch.  
- **Reach & Size Disadvantage:** At 5’4″ with a 62.5″ reach, he must close substantial distance vs. Mudaerji’s 72″ reach, risking strikes in the pocket.

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**Matchup Outlook**  
Su Mudaerji brings explosive striking, length and knockout instinct, while Jesus Aguilar counters with scrappy wrestling and submission craft. The key battle will be distance management and clinch exchanges: can Mudaerji keep Aguilar at bay with leg kicks and counters, or will Aguilar force grappling on the fence, sap the power and secure a ground‐and‐pound or submission? Each fighter’s statistical profile reveals a classic striker‐vs‐grappler chess match on the Flyweight scale.  

## Betting Odds & Line Movement

### Current Odds Snapshot  
- **Su Mudaerji (Favorite):**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **–240**  
  - DraftKings: **–225**  
  - Bovada: **–250**  
- **Jesus Santos Aguilar (Underdog):**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **+205**  
  - DraftKings: **+185**  
  - Bovada: **+210**  

At a glance, the Chinese striker Su Mudaerji commands heavy respect across the board, trading in the mid –200s, while Aguilar sits comfortably in the +185 to +210 range. That gap of roughly **435 to 460 points** underscores Mudaerji’s status as the clear betting favorite and Aguilar’s uphill journey as the underdog.  

If you’re looking for the **highest upside on the underdog**, Bovada’s **+210** offers the biggest payday. Conversely, DraftKings’ **–225** line on Mudaerji delivers the best value for those backing the favorite (risk your $1,000 to win about $444).

### Line Movement & Swing Analysis  
- **Su Mudaerji (BetOnline.ag):** opened at –215 on February 18, dipped to –250, spiked as low as –275 on February 22, then settled back to –240 by February 23.  
- **Jesus Aguilar (BetOnline.ag):** began at +185, climbed to +235, oscillated between +205 and +235, and closed at +205 on February 23.  

These fluctuations reveal a brief surge of sharp money on both sides—sharp support for Aguilar early on, followed by heavy backing of Mudaerji as bettors digested his striking credentials. The fact that both lines eventually gravitated toward their current midpoints suggests oddsmakers found their sweet spots after the initial ebb and flow.

### Payout Scenarios (Risk $1,000)  
- **Betting Su Mudaerji at –225 (DraftKings):**  
  - Potential return: ~$1,444 (includes your $1,000 stake)  
  - Implied win probability: Around **69%**  
- **Betting Jesus Aguilar at +210 (Bovada):**  
  - Potential return: ~$3,100 (includes your $1,000 stake)  
  - Implied win probability: Around **32%**  

### Best Sportsbook Picks  
- For **favorite value**, DraftKings’ **–225** line gives you the greatest upside on Mudaerji.  
- For **underdog upside**, Bovada’s **+210** line on Aguilar is the clear standout.

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Overall, the money has largely swung behind the technical striker, yet the wild early motion on Aguilar’s odds indicates there’s still faith in his ground game upsetting the chalk. Whether you lean into Mudaerji’s power striking or chase the long shot by backing Aguilar, understanding these line movements and shopping for the best odds is key to locking in maximum value.