Fugitt vs Miller UFC 324: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, January 24, 2026, fight fans will tune in for one of the most intriguing matchups on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The welterweight bout between Adam Fugitt and Ty Miller promises to be a fascinating clash of styles and experience levels, as a seasoned UFC veteran squares off against a UFC newcomer making his debut on the sport’s biggest stage. With the action set to begin at 10:00 PM UTC (5:00 PM PT, 8:00 PM ET), this fight represents a pivotal opportunity for both men to further their careers and make an early statement at one of the most stacked events of the year.

Event Details

• Date: January 24, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC / 5:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Card Placement: Early Preliminary

Fighter Profiles

Ty Miller, the 22-year-old welterweight hailing from Phoenix, Arizona, will step into the Octagon for the first time under the UFC banner. Despite his 1-0 professional record, Miller has impressed matchmakers and oddsmakers alike with his size (6'2" height, 77.5" reach) and athletic potential. His statistical profile indicates a patient striking approach (34% significant strike accuracy, 70% defense), while his takedown defense sits at a respectable 50%. Bookmakers have installed Miller as a heavy favorite, with American odds hovering around –380 (implying nearly an 80% implied probability of victory).

Opposite him stands Adam Fugitt, a 36-year-old UFC veteran from Eugene, Oregon, looking to rebound from a 10-5 record inside the promotion. Known for his well-rounded skill set—4 knockouts, 3 submissions, and 3 first-round finishes—Fugitt brings a wealth of experience at this weight class. His UFC journey has seen highs and lows, most recently a loss by TKO to Islam Dulatov. Fugitt’s statistics paint the picture of a fighter who likes to press the action (46% striking accuracy, 25% takedown accuracy) and finish fights early (average fight time of 8:11). In sharp contrast to Miller, Fugitt enters the bout as the underdog with odds around +300, meaning a successful wager on him would triple the initial stake.

Betting Outlook

• Favorite: Ty Miller (–380)
• Underdog: Adam Fugitt (+300)

Oddsmakers have clearly backed the UFC debutant to continue his unblemished start, while Fugitt must rely on his veteran savvy and finishing pedigree to pull off the upset. As we build into the main card, keep an eye on the evolving odds and stylistic breakdowns—this clash of youth versus experience could easily produce fireworks on the feet or grappling exchanges that test each man’s durability and poise under pressure.

With a blend of promising upside and battle-tested toughness, Fugitt vs Miller is poised to deliver an early highlight for UFC 324. Stay tuned as we dive deeper into each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and tactical keys to victory in the full fight breakdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Adam Fugitt: The Veteran Finisher

Age: 36
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle
UFC Record: 10–5–0

Recent Form

Over his last five UFC appearances, Fugitt has alternated between highlight-reel finishes and setback losses:

• Jul. 19, 2025 – Loss vs. Islam Dulatov (KO/TKO, R1 4:06)
• Jun. 15, 2024 – Win vs. Josh Quinlan (Decision – Split)
• Jun. 10, 2023 – Loss vs. Mike Malott (Submission, R2 1:06)
• Feb. 05, 2023 – Win vs. Yusaku Kinoshita (KO/TKO, R1 4:36)
• Jul. 30, 2022 – Loss vs. Michael Morales (KO/TKO, R3 1:09)

That 2–3 run illustrates Fugitt’s “boom or bust” pattern: he either scores early finishes or runs into submission/striking holes.

Statistical Profile

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 46%
• Significant Strike Defense: 51%
• Takedown Accuracy: 25%
• Takedown Defense: 50%
• Average Fight Time: 8:11

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: 4 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions in 10 UFC wins; 3 first-round stoppages.
• Striking Precision: 46% accuracy signals crisp combinations and power shots.
• Early Aggression: Short average fight time reflects a “start fast” mentality, overwhelming opponents before they settle in.

Weaknesses

• Defensive Gaps: Only 51% significant strike defense; vulnerable to counters and volume strikers.
• Grappling Consistency: 25% takedown success and 50% defense suggest he can be out-wrestled or reversed by adept grapplers.
• Durability Questions: Three KO/TKO losses hint at a susceptibility when pressured or caught by heavy hitters.

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Ty Miller: The Rising Prospect

Age: 25
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Emerging well-rounded striker
Pro/UFC Record: 1–0–0

Recent Form

Miller makes his octagon debut after a perfect 1–0 start in regional competition. Though untested in the UFC, he enters with momentum and no professional losses.

Statistical Profile

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 34%
• Significant Strike Defense: 70%
• Takedown Accuracy: 0% (no attempts)
• Takedown Defense: 50%
• Average Fight Time: 15:00

Strengths

• Defensive Footwork: 70% strike defense indicates tight guard, lateral movement, and ability to avoid clean shots.
• Endurance: Two full rounds in his lone pro fight show solid cardio and composure under pressure.
• Physical Tools: At 6’2″ with a 77.5″ reach, he can manage distance and dictate striking ranges.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Deficit: No KOs or submissions in his resume; may lack one-punch power or grappling urgency.
• Offensive Output: 34% accuracy suggests hesitancy or inexperience in high-volume striking exchanges.
• Ground Game Unproven: Zero takedown attempts leave questions about his wrestling or submission ambitions.

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Head-to-Head Narrative

This bout pits Fugitt’s veteran aggression and finishing pedigree against Miller’s defensive savvy and physical upside. Fugitt must land early and often, exploiting his power and seizing position in scrambles before Miller’s cardio and movement dictate the pace. Conversely, Miller will aim to frustrate Fugitt with angles, evade the initial onslaught, and drag the fight into deeper waters where Fugitt’s pace may falter. Statistically, Fugitt leads in striking efficiency and finishing ability, while Miller excels in defense and reach management. The key questions: Can Fugitt overcome his defensive lapses long enough to impose his offense? Or will Miller’s rookie momentum and evasive tactics neutralize the veteran and force a decision or late-round surge?

Betting Odds and Market Movements

Current Betting Lines

As of January 12, 2026, the consensus odds for this welterweight tilt feature Ty Miller as a substantial favorite versus veteran Adam Fugitt as the clear underdog:

• Ty Miller: –380 (Caesars, Bovada), –370 (FanDuel), –360 (BetOnline), –355 (DraftKings), –425 (BetMGM)
• Adam Fugitt: +300 (Caesars), +290 (Bovada, BetMGM), +295 (BetOnline), +280 (DraftKings), +265 (FanDuel)

Miller’s odds cluster around –380, indicating strong public and sharp money backing the UFC newcomer. Fugitt sits at approximately +300 across the market, offering an attractive payout for anyone backing the veteran to spring an upset.

Best Sportsbooks to Shop

• For Miller bettors: DraftKings currently offers the softest favorite line at –355, maximizing your net return on the heavy favorite.
• For Fugitt supporters: Caesars stands out at +300, the juiciest underdog line available among major U.S. books.

Line Movement and Market Trends

Analyzing the line history reveals significant shifts driven by early action:

• Ty Miller:
  • Opened around –300 on January 1
  • Drifted to –320 by January 4
  • Pushed out to –360 on January 9
  • Landed at –380 by January 12

  Overall, Miller’s line moved 80 points toward the favorite, a clear sign of robust demand for the debuting prospect.

• Adam Fugitt:
  • Began at +215 on January 1
  • Climbed to +250 by January 4
  • Shifted to +280 on January 9
  • Settled at +300 on January 12

  Fugitt’s line slid 85 points through the same window, reflecting the opposite flow of money and growing consensus that he must overcome steep odds.

These swings underscore the sharp sportsbooks’ willingness to reward early bettors on Miller and to discourage one‐sided books as action poured in. If you believed in Fugitt early, odds have only grown more lucrative.

Hypothetical $1,000 Payouts

• Bet $1,000 on Ty Miller at –380:
  You would collect $1,263 back (your $1,000 stake plus $263 profit). Implied probability: ~79% chance to win.

• Bet $1,000 on Adam Fugitt at +300:
  You would collect $4,000 back (your $1,000 stake plus $3,000 profit). Implied probability: ~25% chance to win.

These figures highlight the stark risk/reward trade-off: backing the chalk offers modest returns in exchange for a high chance of victory, while siding with the underdog could yield four-times your money—provided the veteran execution beats the rising prospect on fight night.