Jacobe Smith vs Seokhyeon Ko: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Jacobe Smith vs Seokhyeon Ko Fight Breakdown

Introduction

Get ready for an electrifying Welterweight showdown as Jacobe Smith takes on Seokhyeon Ko on Saturday, February 22, 2026. The bout kicks off at 9:00 p.m. ET (1:00 a.m. GMT on February 23) from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, headlining the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez. Both fighters bring contrasting styles, impressive finishes and distinct career trajectories into the octagon, setting the stage for an intriguing clash.

Event Details

• Date: February 22, 2026
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET / 6:00 p.m. PT
• Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
• Card Placement: Main Card, Welterweight Division

Betting Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

In the current market, Jacobe Smith is installed as the betting favorite across major sportsbooks.

• BetOnline.ag: Smith -118, Ko -102
• BetUS: Smith -120, Ko +100
• Bovada: Smith -122, Ko +102

Smith’s position on the moneyline reflects his undefeated record and ruthless finishing rate, whereas Seokhyeon Ko enters as the slight underdog despite owning a 13-2 professional ledger. Ko’s judo-based grappling pedigree and resilience make him a live dog, fetching positive odds (+100 to +102) in most lines.

Fighters’ Profiles

Jacobe Smith (11-0-0)

• Country: United States
• Age: 29
• Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling and striking
• Notable Stats:
  • 8 wins by knockout
  • 7 first-round finishes
  • 67% significant strike accuracy
  • 90% takedown accuracy

Smith burst onto the UFC scene in January 2025 with a thunderous 1:13 TKO over Preston Parsons. Since then, he’s showcased a blend of wrestling control and heavy hands, maintaining a perfect 11-0 record. Despite a setback in his preliminary debut against Niko Price (initially listed as a “loss”), he’s polished his game and returned to full force, making him the consensus pick heading into Houston.

Seokhyeon Ko (13-2-0)

• Country: South Korea
• Age: 32
• Fighting Style: Judo and ground control
• Notable Stats:
  • 6 wins by knockout
  • 4 first-round finishes
  • 59% significant strike defense
  • 63% takedown accuracy

Ko is no stranger to adversity or the bright lights of the UFC. He debuted in June 2025, rattling off back-to-back unanimous decision victories over rising prospects Philip Rowe and Oban Elliott. A skilled judoka with a sturdy chin, Ko thrives in scrambles and clinch exchanges. His experience and championship-level grit make him a threat to spoil Smith’s perfect slate.

What’s at Stake

With the Welterweight division stacked near the top, a dominant win here will catapult Smith toward the top 15 rankings, while Ko aims to cement himself as a legitimate contender in the deep 170-pound field. The clash of styles—Smith’s explosive wrestling striking hybrid versus Ko’s judo-driven groundwork—adds a tactical layer that fans and bettors alike must weigh.

Stay tuned as we delve deeper into each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses and tactical keys in our full fight analysis.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jacobe Smith vs Seokhyeon Ko can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Fight Overview

This Welterweight showdown pits two contrasting styles and career arcs against each other. On Saturday, February 22, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, Jacobe Smith (11-0-0) squares off with Seokhyeon Ko (13-2-0) on the UFC Fight Night main card. Smith enters as the slight favorite on most moneylines, leveraging his explosive finishing ability and perfect pro record. Ko arrives as a skilled judoka underdog, boasting championship-level grit and a background in high-level ground control.

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Jacobe Smith Profile

Age: 29
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling blended with heavy hands

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

• UFC Debut (Jan. 11, 2025): Win – TKO vs. Preston Parsons (Round 1, 1:13)
• Second UFC Bout (Jun. 28, 2025): Decision Loss vs. Niko Price (split controversy)
• Regional Run (2024–2025): 3 Wins (all stoppages) to enter UFC undefeated

Smith’s professional ledger reads an unblemished 11-0-0 with 8 knockouts and 7 first-round finishes.

Strengths:

• Finishing Power: 73% of his wins by KO/TKO, capable of ending fights within the opening minute.
• Striking Accuracy (67%): High conversion rate on significant strikes, punishing defensive lapses.
• Takedown Mastery (90% accuracy / 100% defense): Elite wrestling toolkit, both offensively and defensively.
• Pace & Pressure: Quick starts force opponents into survival mode.

Weaknesses:

• Strike Defense (47%): Below-average at avoiding incoming shots; vulnerable to counterstrikes from heavy hitters.
• Gas Tank Concerns: Average fight time of 6:04 suggests potential cardio decline if the bout extends beyond early rounds.
• Adaptation to Unorthodox Styles: Loss to Price exposed difficulties handling unpredictable, scrambling foes.

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Seokhyeon Ko Profile

Age: 32
Country: South Korea
Fighting Style: Judo-based clinch work and top-control grappling

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights):

• UFC Debut (Jun. 21, 2025): Win – UD vs. Oban Elliott (3 Rounds)
• Second UFC Bout (Nov. 1, 2025): Win – UD vs. Philip Rowe (3 Rounds)
• Regional Circuit (2023–2025): 2 Wins (including 1 KO/TKO)

Ko comes in on a 5-fight winning streak—2 inside the Octagon—and holds a professional record of 13-2-0.

Strengths:

• Grappling & Control: Leveraging a 63% takedown success rate and 75% takedown defense, he excels in clinch exchanges and ground positioning.
• Durability: Average fight time of 15:00 indicates he can maintain output and survive deep waters.
• Balanced Striking: 59% significant strike accuracy and defense make him a competent stand-up technician.
• Fight IQ: Smart transitions between judo throws, takedowns, and top-control to wear opponents down.

Weaknesses:

• Finishing Rate: Only 6 KOs and 0 submissions in 13 wins; lacks the consistent fight-ending power of Smith.
• Takedown Offense vs. Elite Wrestlers: While solid, his 63% accuracy may falter against Smith’s dominant 90% takedown success.
• Pace Under Pressure: Inability to finish early fights could allow Smith to dictate tempo and exploit cardio edges.

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In this clash, Smith’s rapid-fire wrestling and knockout prowess collide with Ko’s methodical judo and clinch supremacy. Betting hinges on whether Smith can land early, decisive blows or if Ko’s grappling durability will drag the favorite into deeper waters.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez, the Jacobe Smith vs Seokhyeon Ko clash presents a tight moneyline market:

• BetOnline.ag
  • Jacobe Smith: -118
  • Seokhyeon Ko: +102

• BetUS
  • Jacobe Smith: -120
  • Seokhyeon Ko: +100

• Bovada
  • Jacobe Smith: -122
  • Seokhyeon Ko: +102

Jacobe Smith is the clear favorite across all major books, priced between –118 and –122. Seokhyeon Ko sits just on the plus side (+100 to +102), making him the underdog. The narrow spread (only 18–22 cents) indicates oddsmakers see this as a finely balanced matchup—Smith’s wrestling power versus Ko’s judo grit.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• If you back the favorite (Smith), BetOnline.ag offers the juiciest line at –118, meaning less juice and better potential return.
• If you take Ko as your underdog play, Bovada at +102 yields the highest payout per dollar risked.

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Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the odds movement over the past week reveals some notable swings:

• Jacobe Smith (BetOnline.ag)
– Feb. 6: –115 → Feb. 7 midday: rose to –125 → Feb. 8 evening: settled at –120 → Feb. 9 morning: eased to –118

• Seokhyeon Ko (BetOnline.ag)
– Feb. 6: –105 (initial slight favorite) → Feb. 7: flipped to +105 → Feb. 8 evening: swung back to –110 → Feb. 9: landed at +102

• Bovada Lines (Ko)
– Feb. 8 morning: –112 → midday: moved through –105/–115 swings as bettors oscillated → Feb. 8 night: flipped to +102

These fluctuations reflect early smart money on Ko—shifting him briefly into favorite territory—and a reactive market once bettors recognized Smith’s wrestling edge. The biggest moves occurred on February 7–8, where each fighter oscillated roughly 10–12 cents on BetOnline.ag and Bovada, before stabilizing as more volume came in.

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Payout & Implied Probability

Here’s what a $1,000 wager would look like at the current lines:

• Jacobe Smith at –118 (BetOnline.ag)
– Payout: ~$1,847 total return ($847 profit + $1,000 stake)
– Implied Win Probability: ~54.8%

• Seokhyeon Ko at +102 (Bovada)
– Payout: ~$2,020 total return ($1,020 profit + $1,000 stake)
– Implied Win Probability: ~49.5%

If you believe Smith’s undefeated record and high finishing rate hold true, your best play is the lean favorite at –118. But if you trust Ko’s judo control and durability to weather early storms, the +102 on Bovada offers superior value and upside.