UFC AI Pick & Betting Analysis: Montenegro vs Kareckaite

Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite Fight Analysis

When & Where:

• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Time: 22:00 UTC (4:00 PM CST Mexico City)
• Venue: Arena CDMX, México D.F., Mexico
• Card Placement: Preliminary Card (Event: UFC Fight Night – Moreno vs Kavanagh)

Overview
The women’s flyweight division welcomes a compelling clash as Ernesta Kareckaite takes on promotional newcomer Sofia Montenegro. This bout is scheduled for three five-minute rounds on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh at Arena CDMX. The event airs live from México D.F. on February 28, marking Montenegro’s debut and Kareckaite’s second outing of 2026.

The Favorite:
Ernesta Kareckaite arrives as the clear betting favorite, commanding odds around –340 across major books like DraftKings, BetUS, and BetRivers. The 26-year-old Lithuanian (6-1-1 UFC record) impressed fans with her wrestling pedigree and iron will when she rebounded from her UFC debut loss to Dione Barbosa by securing a split-decision win over Nicolle Caliari in January 2025. Kareckaite’s clinch work, combined with a 67% takedown accuracy and 83% takedown defense, makes her a formidable ground specialist. Her striking statistics—42% significant strike accuracy and 48% defense—underscore a balanced skill set that has produced two first-round finishes inside the octagon.

The Underdog:
Across the Octagon, Argentina’s Sofia Montenegro debuts in the UFC at +270 odds. Although she doesn’t yet have a pro record in the organization (0-1-0), her invitation to this high-profile preliminary bout signals the promotion’s belief in her potential. At age 26, Montenegro brings a fresh athletic profile to the 125-pound division. While her official UFC statistics are limited (40% striking accuracy, 49% defense, and 25% takedown accuracy), this fight represents a pivotal opportunity for her to announce herself before a global audience. A strong wrestling base or game-changing kickboxing display could transform Montenegro from underdog to instant contender territory.

Key Storylines to Watch:

• Kareckaite’s Ground Control: Will the Lithuanian’s takedown prowess and positional dominance carry her to a unanimous decision, or can she hunt for another early finish?
• Montenegro’s UFC Debut Pulse-Check: Can Argentina’s rising prospect withstand the pace and aggression of a proven flyweight, or will nerves derail her first Octagon appearance?
• Tactical Chess Match: Expect Kareckaite to mix takedowns with mid-range striking, while Montenegro must showcase footwork and find angles to keep the fight upright.

With contrasting resumes and styles, this bout promises to highlight the depth of the women’s flyweight division. Bettors and fans alike should note Kareckaite’s overwhelming favoritism—backed by comprehensive UFC experience—while Montenegro’s long odds speak to the high-risk, high-reward nature of backing a debutante. Whoever prevails will move a step closer to flyweight relevance, making this Saturday’s prelim a must-watch showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

This women’s flyweight showdown pits seasoned grappler Ernesta Kareckaite (6-1-1) against UFC newcomer Sofia Montenegro (0-1-0) on the prelim card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh. At 26 years old, both fighters share youth and ambition, but contrasting résumés and skill sets make for an intriguing stylistic clash. Kareckaite, the -340 betting favorite, will look to exploit her elite wrestling and takedown prowess, while +270 underdog Montenegro must leverage her takedown defense and stand-up to upset the Lithuanian.

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Ernesta Kareckaite Profile

• Age: 26
• Country: Lithuania
• Fighting Style: Wrestling-heavy MMA with steady striking
• UFC Record: 6-1-1 (2 KOs, 0 submissions)
• Last Two UFC Bouts:
  1. Split Decision win vs. Nicolle Caliari (Jan. 11, 2025)
  2. Unanimous Decision loss vs. Dione Barbosa (May 4, 2024)

Recent Form

• Kareckaite bounced back from her UFC debut loss by edging Caliari via split decision, showing improved pace and control.
• Prior to that, her loss to Barbosa exposed vulnerabilities in striking exchanges, forcing her to rely on wrestling.

Strengths

• Elite Takedown Game: 67% takedown accuracy and 83% takedown defense make her one of the division’s best wrestlers.
• Durable Gas Tank: Fights average a full 15:00 minutes; her cardio allows her to maintain pressure late.
• Balanced Striking: 42% significant strike accuracy and 48% defense keep her competitive on the feet.

Weaknesses

• Lacks Submission Finishes: With zero submission wins, she rarely capitalizes on grappling transitions.
• Strike Defense: A 48% sig-strike defense suggests she can be tagged by heavy hitters when she overcommits in scrambles.
• Limited KO Power: Only 2 knockouts indicate she may struggle to stop opponents standing.

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Sofia Montenegro Profile

• Age: 26
• Country: Argentina
• Fighting Style: Upright striker with strong defensive wrestling instincts
• UFC Record: Debuting Feb. 28, 2026 (pro record 0-1-0)

Recent Form

• Montenegro has yet to notch a professional win; her sole recorded loss came in her pro debut, underscoring her status as a true prospect.
• As a newcomer, she arrives with fresh legs and the unpredictability of an unknown commodity.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense: A perfect 100% takedown defense rate means Kareckaite’s primary weapon may be neutralized.
• Striking Defense: At 49% sig-strike defense, she avoids nearly half of significant strikes, enabling her to counter effectively.
• Youthful Upside: Debut jitters aside, her undeveloped skill set poses a scouting challenge for Kareckaite’s team.

Weaknesses

• Offensive Production: Just 40% striking accuracy and only 25% takedown accuracy point to slow starts and missed opportunities.
• Lack of Finishing Threat: Zero knockouts or submissions to date reveal limited fight-ending tools.
• Inexperience Under Pressure: No Octagon bouts means she’s untested in the high-stakes UFC environment.

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With Kareckaite’s proven wrestling and durability against Montenegro’s sterling takedown defense and defensive striking, this fight will be a chess match of grappling entries versus counter-striking. Kareckaite must avoid overcommitting on takedowns or getting caught by counters, while Montenegro needs to find her timing early, score on the feet, and survive the wrestling onslaught to pull off the upset.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

• Ernesta Kareckaite (Favorite): Across top sportsbooks, Kareckaite is priced between –330 (BetUS, BetOnline.ag) and –345 (BetRivers), with most books squarely at –340 (DraftKings, Bovada).
• Sofia Montenegro (Underdog): Montenegro’s odds range from +265 (BetRivers) up to +270 (DraftKings, BetOnline.ag, Bovada), making her a sizable long shot.

The 340‐to‐270 differential underscores the market’s confidence in Kareckaite’s wrestling pedigree and UFC experience, while Montenegro’s debut status and lack of professional wins leave her firmly in underdog territory.

Underdog vs. Favorite

• Favorite: Ernesta Kareckaite
  • Implied probability: ~77%
  • Minimal upside on the moneyline, but low-risk backing
• Underdog: Sofia Montenegro
  • Implied probability: ~27%
  • High-risk, high-reward proposition for bettors seeking value

Best Sportsbooks to Bet On

• For Kareckaite:
  • BetUS and BetOnline.ag both offer the best moneyline at –330, slightly more generous than BetRivers’ –345.
• For Montenegro:
  • DraftKings, Bovada, and BetOnline.ag all post +270, a nick above BetRivers’ +265.

If you want to maximize potential returns on either side, shop around: locking in –330 for Kareckaite or +270 for Montenegro yields the most favorable payout scenarios.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

• Ernesta Kareckaite:
  • Opened around –330 at DraftKings and BetUS on Feb. 16
  • Brief dip to –345 mid‐day on BetRivers
  • Settled at –340 across most books
  • Net movement: 15 cents in favor of the favorite—modest adjustment as sharp money trickled in.
• Sofia Montenegro:
  • Debuted at +265 on BetRivers, +267 on BetUS
  • Climbed to +270 at DraftKings and Bovada
  • Net movement: 5 cents toward the underdog, indicating a handful of bettors backing Montenegro into slightly longer odds.

No dramatic swings have occurred, but the slight expansion on both sides suggests balanced money flow—sharp bettors nibbling at both the favorite and underdog without forcing major line changes.

Payouts & Potential Returns

• Betting $1,000 on Kareckaite at –340:
  • Return: $1,294.12 (including your original $1,000 stake)
  • Profit: $294.12
• Betting $1,000 on Montenegro at +270:
  • Return: $3,700 (including your original $1,000 stake)
  • Profit: $2,700

With Kareckaite commanding roughly a 77% implied chance of victory, the favorite offers low upside but high probability. Montenegro, at about a 27% implied chance, carries steep risk yet the potential for a substantial payday.