Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes: UFC Odds & Analysis

Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, March 1, 2026 (local time), the Flyweight division heats up at Arena CDMX in México D.F. as part of the UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh Main Card. This non-title bout between Edgar Chairez and Felipe Bunes is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM local time (1:00 AM UTC), and promises fireworks for flyweight fans in attendance and millions watching around the globe.

The Event

• Date: March 1, 2026
• Venue: Arena CDMX, México D.F., Mexico
• Card Placement: Main Card, third fight
• Weight Class: Flyweight (up to 125 lb)

Mexico City’s historic Arena CDMX will be a charged atmosphere as hometown hopeful Edgar Chairez looks to extend his four-fight UFC winning streak. On the opposite corner, Brazil’s submission specialist Felipe Bunes will aim to snap back into the win column after a unanimous decision loss in his most recent outing.

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

Edgar Chairez enters as the clear favorite across every major sportsbook. Current odds sit around -240 (BetRivers, Bovada) to -250 (FanDuel), reflecting Chairez’s well-rounded grappling pedigree and faster finishing rate. The 29-year-old Mexican boasts a 12–6–0 professional record, including 8 submission wins and 4 knockouts. His average fight time of 8:56 indicates he can both grind out decisions and finish early when the opportunity arises.

By contrast, Felipe Bunes is the underdog, priced between +188 (BetRivers) and +200 (DraftKings, Bovada). The 35-year-old Brazilian has a 14–8–0 record, with an impressive 9 first-round finishes—a testament to his dangerous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. However, Bunes has encountered inconsistent success in the Octagon, and his 22% takedown accuracy and 40% takedown defense leave questions about his ability to impose his grappling against the relentless pace of Chairez.

What’s At Stake

For Chairez, a victory in front of his home crowd would not only keep him on track toward the flyweight rankings but also bolster his growing reputation as a must-watch finisher. A knockout or submission would send a message to the division’s upper echelon.

For Bunes, a win here could revitalize his UFC career and prove that his elite submission game can overcome a wrestler-strong opponent. Upsetting Chairez would earn him invaluable momentum and potentially crack the top 15 in a crowded flyweight division.

As fight night approaches, bettors and fans alike will weigh Chairez’s home-field advantage and takedown prowess against Bunes’s dangerous ground game and finishing instincts. Stay tuned as we break down each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and key tactics in the sections to follow.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Edgar Chairez Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Mexico
• Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling–based grappler with slick submission transitions

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. C.J. Vergara (Submission, R1 – 2:30) – UFC Fight Night, Mar. 29, 2025
2. Loss vs. Joshua Van (Unanimous Decision) – UFC Fight Night, Sep. 14, 2024
3. Win vs. Daniel Da Silva (Submission, R1 – 2:17) – UFC Fight Night, Feb. 24, 2024
4. Overturned result vs. Daniel Da Silva (Originally loss, ruling changed) – UFC Fight Night, Sep. 16, 2023
5. Loss vs. Tatsuro Taira (Unanimous Decision) – UFC Fight Night, Jul. 8, 2023

Chairez enters this bout on the heels of a 2–2–1 stretch, with both victories coming via first-round submission. The overturned result reflects a rare officiating reversal rather than performance.

Strengths

• Submission Finisher: 8 career submission wins, 75% of UFC victories by tap out
• Early Pressure: 9 first-round finishes show his ability to impose fast-paced grappling
• Durable Chin: Only 6 career losses; has never been finished in the UFC

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: 0% takedown accuracy indicates he struggles to bring the fight to the mat on demand
• Takedown Defense: 33% takedown defense makes him vulnerable to strong wrestlers or savvy grapplers
• Striking Volume: 44% significant strike accuracy and 43% defense suggest he lands fewer strikes and absorbs a moderate volume

Felipe Bunes Profile

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with submission pedigree

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

1. Loss vs. Rafael Estevam (Unanimous Decision) – UFC Fight Night, Aug. 2, 2025
2. Win vs. Jose Johnson (Submission, R1 – 2:04) – UFC Fight Night, Jan. 11, 2025
3. Loss vs. Joshua Van (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:31) – UFC Fight Night, Jan. 13, 2024

Bunes carries a 1–2 mark in his last three outings. His lone win showcased his elite grappling, but he’s alternated between success and setback.

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal: 9 career submission victories, often hunting chokes and joint locks immediately
• Striking Efficiency: 51% significant strike accuracy allows him to land precise counters
• Early Finisher: 9 first-round finishes across his tenure, capitalizing quickly on openings

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: 40% defense rate means he’s susceptible to being controlled on the mat
• Cardio Concerns: At 35, maintaining pace beyond early rounds could become a factor
• Power Finishing: Only 2 KO victories; relies heavily on grappling and may lack one-punch knockout threat

Comparative Analysis

• Age & Experience: Bunes’s veteran savvy (35 years old) contrasts with Chairez’s youthful energy (29). Expect Bunes to lean on experience while Chairez presses hard early.
• Grappling vs. Grappling: Both fighters boast submission credentials, but Chairez struggles to secure takedowns, while Bunes must defend wrestling attacks to keep the fight standing or initiate his own ground game.
• Striking Dynamics: Bunes edges in accuracy (51% vs. 44%), but Chairez is more active and durable. If Chairez can force scrambles, he may neutralize Bunes’s precision striking.

This clash is a battle of contrasting grappling styles: Chairez’s relentless pace and tenacious scrambles versus Bunes’s slick jiu-jitsu and calculated striking. Their respective vulnerabilities—Chairez’s takedown struggles and Bunes’s takedown defense—will be the fulcrum on which this flyweight scrap pivots.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As fight night approaches, Edgar Chairez is heavily favored across the board, while Felipe Bunes sits firmly in the underdog role.

• Edgar Chairez (Favorite)
  • Best Odds: –235 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS)
  • Other Lines: –240 (BetRivers, Bovada), –245 (DraftKings), –250 (FanDuel)
• Felipe Bunes (Underdog)
  • Best Odds: +200 (DraftKings, Bovada)
  • Other Lines: +188 (BetRivers), +190 (FanDuel), +194 (BetUS)

Favorite vs. Underdog Difference

• Chairez’s average line hovers around –240, implying a roughly 70–71% chance of victory.
• Bunes’s average line sits around +195, implying roughly a 33% chance to pull off the upset.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• To back Bunes, DraftKings or Bovada at +200 offers the highest upside.
• To back Chairez, BetOnline.ag or BetUS at –235 provides the best return on risk.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking each fighter’s line over the past two weeks reveals minor shifts but no major upheavals:

• BetOnline.ag
  • Chairez: –250 (Feb. 12) → –235 (Feb. 16)
  • Bunes: +210 (Feb. 12) → +200 (Feb. 16)
• DraftKings, BetRivers, FanDuel, Bovada, BetUS: Odds have remained steady within a 5-cent window.

These modest movements suggest a balanced flow of money on both sides, with Chairez’s line softening slightly in response to some late support for Bunes. There are no dramatic shifts that would indicate a sudden wave of sharp money or insider information changing the dynamics.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager, here’s what your return and implied chances would look like:

• Betting $1,000 on Felipe Bunes at +200

  • Payout: $1,000 stake + $2,000 profit = $3,000 total
  • Implied Probability: ~33%

• Betting $1,000 on Edgar Chairez at –235

  • Payout: $1,000 stake + ~$425 profit = ~$1,425 total
  • Implied Probability: ~70%

Key Takeaways

• Underdog Upside: Bunes at +200 offers the biggest payday if you back the Brazilian grappler—ideal for bettors seeking a high-reward play.
• Sharp Favorite Value: Chairez at –235 (BetOnline.ag/BetUS) is the softest line on the favorite, giving you the highest return when wagering on the hometown wrestler.
• Stable Market: With only small line moves in mid-February, the market appears calm—suggesting no clear sharp-money angle has emerged to drastically shift the lines.

Whether you lean toward the hometown favorite’s grappling dominance or the Brazilian submission specialist’s upset potential, the current market offers value on both sides. Choose your angle and lock in your line at the sportsbook that maximizes your payout potential.