Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas Odds, Prediction & AI Pick

Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

The highly anticipated flyweight clash between Imanol Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas is set to take place on Sunday, March 1, 2026, as part of the Main Card at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh. The action kicks off at 9:00 PM local time (1:00 AM GMT) inside the historic Arena CDMX in México D.F., Mexico. Although this bout is not a title fight, it carries significant momentum for both competitors: Rodriguez aims to build on a spectacular UFC debut, while Borjas looks to rebound after an uneven introduction to the Octagon.

This matchup pits a bright young prospect against a seasoned finisher. On the blue corner, Kevin Borjas (10-4-0) from Lima, Peru brings a reputation as a heavy-handed striker who has earned 8 knockouts in his 10 professional wins. Across the Octagon in the red corner, Imanol Rodriguez (1-0-0) of Ensenada, Mexico makes his sophomore UFC appearance fresh off a unanimous decision victory in his impressive 2026 debut. Though Rodriguez has just one Octagon outing under his belt, his crisp boxing fundamentals and 59% significant strike accuracy have already caught the promotion’s attention.

Betting Lines and Key Storylines

The betting markets have quickly established Imanol Rodriguez as the clear favorite, with the best available line at -430 (FanDuel) and an average around -400 across top sportsbooks. His combination of precision striking and controlled pace makes him a perceived step up from his UFC debut opposition. Conversely, Kevin Borjas enters as the underdog, checking in at +300 (DraftKings, BetOnline.ag, FanDuel) and as high as +310 (BetRivers, BetUS). Borjas’ path to victory rests on landing his heavy down-the-pipe shots early or dragging the fight into deep waters where his power and finishing instinct can swing momentum.

Both men share similar physical profiles—standing around 5’5” with near-even reach—but their careers tell distinct stories. Borjas debuted in the UFC on November 11, 2023, and has since shown flashes of brilliance but also lapses in defense, allowing opponents like Alessandro Costa to overwhelm him with strikes. His takedown defense sits at a solid 71%, but he has yet to demonstrate a well-rounded ground game. Rodriguez, on the other hand, enters with a perfect 1-0 UFC record and an average fight time of just 2:12, indicating a willingness to press early and capitalize on openings. His defensive metrics (60% strike defense) suggest he’ll be difficult to tag cleanly.

With both fighters eager to climb the flyweight ladder, expect fireworks. Rodriguez will look to assert range control, mix in leg kicks, and avoid standing in front of Borjas’ power shots. Borjas must find the clinch or land his trademark overhand right to halt Rodriguez’s momentum. Whichever way you lean, this matchup promises an exciting clash of styles on Mexican soil.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

Imanol Rodriguez

Age: 25
Country: Mexico (Ensenada)
Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lb)
Style: Precision striker with a heavy boxing base and relentless forward pressure

Background & Recent Form

• Made his UFC debut on February 28, 2026, earning a unanimous decision victory over Francisco Figueroa.
• Professional record: 1–0–0 in the UFC; undefeated as a pro coming into the Octagon.
• Average fight time in UFC: 2:12, demonstrating his willingness to press the action early and overwhelm opponents before they settle in.

Although he’s yet to log a grappling exchange or finish via submission or knockout in the UFC, Rodriguez’s active jab and sharp combination punching have signaled a high ceiling. His high-volume striking unlocked openings that carried him to an early unanimous decision, and his 59% significant strike accuracy underlines the efficiency of his offense. On defense, he successfully avoids 60% of his opponents’ significant strikes.

Kevin Borjas

Age: 27
Country: Peru (Lima)
Weight Class: Flyweight (126 lb)
Style: Power puncher with a pure striking pedigree and first-round finishing instincts

Background & Recent Form

• UFC tenure began November 11, 2023; carries a 10–4–0 overall pro record.
• In his last four UFC outings:
  • Loss by unanimous decision to Sumudaerji (Aug. 2025)
  • Win by unanimous decision over Luis Rodriguez (Mar. 2025)
  • KO/TKO loss to Alessandro Costa (May 2024)
  • Unanimous decision loss to Joshua Van (Nov. 2023)
• Known for sudden violence: 8 of his 10 pro wins came by knockout, with 5 happening in the first round.

Borjas’s fights often ebb and flow—he trails on volume early but can flip momentum in a single exchange. His 44% significant strike accuracy isn’t elite, but his power means that every jab or overhand carries fight-ending risk. Defensively, he stops 50% of incoming strikes and boasts a solid 71% takedown defense, though he has never attempted a UFC takedown himself.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Imanol Rodriguez

Strengths

• High striking efficiency: 59% accuracy on significant strikes, indicating pinpoint timing and shot selection.
• Forward pressure: Controls distance with jab and leg kicks, dictating pace and positioning.
• Strike defense: Avoids 60% of incoming significant strikes, making him a difficult target.

Weaknesses

• Limited experience: Only one UFC fight on record; untested in later rounds or against top-tier grapplers.
• Lack of finishing pedigree: No UFC knockouts or submissions to date—may struggle to close the show if opponent weathers early storm.
• Grappling unknowns: No takedown attempts or defensive data beyond strike exchanges.

Kevin Borjas

Strengths

• One-punch power: Eight career knockouts, five of them in round one, give him a constant threat of sudden finish.
• Takedown defense: Stands at 71%, making it difficult for opponents to drag him into uncomfortable ground battles.
• Experience: Four UFC fights against varied styles; has shown resilience in adversity.

Weaknesses

• Striking defense: Only 50% significant strike defense allows clean shots from pressure fighters.
• Offensive grappling non-existent: 0% takedown accuracy—can’t force transitions to his preferred ground-and-pound or submission game.
• Cardio concerns: Average fight time of 13:19 suggests he tends to go the distance, and the longer the fight, the less dangerous his power becomes.

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Matchup Dynamics:
Rodriguez’s precision and work-rate clash with Borjas’s raw power. If Rodriguez maintains distance with jab-and-leg-kick combinations, he can neutralize Borjas’s two-punch knockout window. Conversely, Borjas must cut angles, land heavy overhands, and test Rodriguez’s chin before the Mexican striker finds his rhythm. This stylistic contrast—volume vs. power—will define a compelling flyweight duel in CDMX.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

• Imanol Rodriguez

  • DraftKings: -380
  • BetOnline.ag: -400
  • Bovada: -390
  • BetUS: -400
  • BetRivers: -420
  • FanDuel: -430

• Kevin Borjas

  • DraftKings: +300
  • BetOnline.ag: +300
  • Bovada: +295
  • BetUS: +309
  • BetRivers: +310
  • FanDuel: +300

Imanol Rodriguez is the clear favorite, with odds ranging from -380 to -430. The best price to back Rodriguez right now is -380 at DraftKings, but if you want maximum return on the favorite, Bovada’s -390 is the most favorable after DraftKings. Kevin Borjas is the underdog at roughly +300, and the top line for him is +310 at BetRivers (also available at BetUS for +309).

Line Movement & Market Stability

Reviewing the odds history from multiple sportsbooks shows remarkably stable lines over the past week. All recorded prices for both fighters date to Feb. 16, 2026, around 08:10 UTC, and there have been no major swings—only minor discrepancies of 10–20 cents on the dollar across different books. This stability suggests sharp money has come in early, establishing consensus expectation rather than reactive public betting. With no significant lineup changes, injuries, or late-breaking news, the market remains confident in Rodriguez’s role as a substantial favorite.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you place a $1,000 wager today:

• Betting Rodriguez at -400 (mid-range line)

  • You’d win $250 in profit, for a total payout of $1,250.
  • Implied probability: 80% that Rodriguez wins.

• Betting Borjas at +300 (common underdog line)

  • You’d win $3,000 in profit, for a total payout of $4,000.
  • Implied probability: 25% that Borjas pulls off the upset.

If you shop the best available lines, a $1,000 bet on Borjas at +310 (BetRivers) would return $4,100 total, and a $1,000 wager on Rodriguez at -380 (DraftKings) would return $1,263 total.

Summary & Best Books

• Favorite Value: DraftKings at -380 offers the best price on Rodriguez if you believe he’ll dominate.
• Underdog Value: BetRivers at +310 is the top line for Borjas if you’re chasing high upside.
• Market Confidence: The tight clustering of lines across six major books confirms consensus on Rodriguez’s heavy favorite status.
• Payout Comparison: Betting the underdog multiplies your stake by four, while backing the favorite cushions your risk with a modest return.

Whether you’re looking to lock in the safe play on Rodriguez or chase a big payday with Borjas, the odds are set—and they’ve held steady. Shop around to capture those extra ticks, and remember that even a small line swing can make a meaningful difference on a $1,000+ wager.