Spivac vs Delija Odds, Analysis & AI Pick | UFC Breakdown

## Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija fight analysis

### Fight Overview

The heavyweight clash between **Serghei Spivac** and **Ante Delija** headlines the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernández on **Sunday, February 22, 2026**, kicking off at **1:00 AM ET** from the **Toyota Center in Houston, Texas**. This pivotal matchup pits two of the division’s most dangerous finishers against each other: #7-ranked Spivac, a Sambo specialist with a 17-6-0 record, and #10-ranked Delija, a knockout artist carrying a 26-7-0 ledger into this bout. Fans tuning in will witness a classic stylistic battle—Spivac’s elite wrestling and grappling acumen versus Delija’s power striking and first‐round finishing prowess.

### Venue & Stakes

- **Event**: UFC Fight Night – Strickland vs Hernández  
- **Date & Time**: February 22, 2026 • 1:00 AM ET  
- **Location**: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas  
- **Division**: Heavyweight (265 lb limit)  
- **Card Position**: Main Card (Early feature bout)

Not only is this fight crucial for divisional positioning—with both men eager to crack the top five—it also carries significant betting implications. According to Caesars, Bovada, BetUS and BetOnline.ag, **Ante Delija** enters as the consensus favorite at approximately **-170** (American odds), while **Serghei Spivac** lines up as the underdog at **+143**. Those looking to back an upset will find value in Spivac’s superior takedown averages (62% TD accuracy, 64% TD defense) and his submission record (8 career wins via tapout), whereas bettors siding with Delija will bank on his thunderous power (13 knockouts, 15 first-round finishes).

### Spotlight on the Favorite and Underdog

**Ante Delija** (26-7-0)  
- Style: MMA striker  
- Knockout power (13 KO/TKO wins)  
- Average finish time: 3:01  
- UFC Debut: October 17, 2020  

**Serghei Spivac** (17-6-0)  
- Style: Sambo wrestler  
- Submission threat (8 submission wins)  
- Takedown accuracy: 62%  
- UFC Debut: May 4, 2019  

With both athletes in their physical primes—Delija at 35 and Spivac at 30—the clash promises fireworks. Delija’s striking volume (45% significant strike accuracy) and youth give him the edge on the feet, but Spivac’s three-inch reach equalization and grappling pedigree could turn the tide on the mat. This introduction sets the stage for an in‐depth breakdown of each fighter’s recent form, tactical approaches, and the pivotal moments that will decide who moves one step closer to heavyweight gold contention.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

## Matchup and Fighter Profiles

### Ante Delija – The Heavy Hitter

**Age:** 35 • **Country:** Croatia • **Fighting Style:** Power striker (MMA)  
**Height:** 75.5″ • **Reach:** 78″ • **UFC Debut:** Oct. 17, 2020  

**Recent Form (Last 3 UFC Bouts):**  
- Sep. 6, 2025 – **W** KO/TKO vs Marcin Tybura (R1, 2:03)  
- Nov. 1, 2025 – **L** KO/TKO vs Waldo Cortes Acosta (R1, 3:59)  
- *(Earlier UFC action and regional run have seen Delija amass 15 first-round finishes on his way to a 26-7-0 pro record.)*

**Strengths:**  
- **Explosive knockout power.** 13 of 26 career wins by KO/TKO, 15 total first-round stoppages.  
- **High strike output.** Lands 45% of significant strikes attempted, overwhelming opponents early.  
- **Finisher’s mentality.** Enters every scrap looking to end it in Round 1 or 2, forcing foes out of their rhythm.

**Weaknesses:**  
- **Grappling inexperience.** 0% takedown accuracy and defense in UFC bouts; vulnerable to wrestlers.  
- **Defensive lapses.** Concedes 38% of significant strikes thrown at him, leaving openings for counters.  
- **Cardio untested.** Average fight ends in 3:01 – his gas tank over three rounds remains a question mark.

---

### Serghei Spivac – The Sambo Specialist

**Age:** 30 • **Country:** Moldova • **Fighting Style:** Sambo wrestler  
**Height:** 75″ • **Reach:** 78″ • **UFC Debut:** May 4, 2019  

**Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts):**  
- Jun. 7, 2025 – **L** Decision (unanimous) vs Waldo Cortes Acosta (R3, 5:00)  
- Jan. 18, 2025 – **L** KO/TKO vs Jailton Almeida (R1, 4:53)  
- Aug. 10, 2024 – **W** Submission vs Marcin Tybura (R1, 1:44)  
- Sep. 2, 2023 – **L** KO/TKO vs Ciryl Gane (R2, 3:44)  
- Feb. 5, 2023 – **W** Submission vs Derrick Lewis (R1, 3:05)  

**Strengths:**  
- **Elite grappling pedigree.** 62% takedown accuracy, 64% takedown defense; consistently controls where the fight goes.  
- **Submission threat.** 8 career submission victories; 11 first-round stoppages.  
- **Balanced striking.** 48% significant strike accuracy with a 50% defense rate—capable in stand-up but comfortable on the mat.  
- **Durability and cardio.** Average fight time of 7:54 shows he can weather early storms and grind out decisions.

**Weaknesses:**  
- **Susceptible to power.** Three stoppage losses via strikes in his last five UFC fights—can be caught in the pocket.  
- **Inconsistent form.** A 2-3 run in his last five indicates lapses in game-planning against elite opponents.  
- **Less explosive.** Relies on attrition; slower starts can leave him behind on the scorecards early.

---

### Head-to-Head Styles Contrast

Delija comes in as the **consensus favorite** (≈ –170) based on his one-punch knockout ability and rapid finishes. Spivac, the **+143 underdog**, has the grappling tools to neutralize Delija’s power and exploit the Croatian’s 0% takedown defense. This clash of striker versus wrestler sets up a classic heavyweight puzzle: can Spivac drag this slugfest to the mat, or will Delija’s heavy hands keep it standing long enough for a one-punch finish?

## Betting Odds and Line Movement

### Current Odds Snapshot  
- **Ante Delija (Favorite):**  
  - Caesars: –170  
  - BetUS: –165  
  - Bovada: –172  
  - BetOnline.ag: –163  
- **Serghei Spivac (Underdog):**  
  - Caesars: +143  
  - BetUS: +138  
  - Bovada: +147  
  - BetOnline.ag: +143  

As it stands, **Delija** is the consensus favorite at roughly **–170**, while **Spivac** carries the underdog tag at around **+143**. The widest gap between these lines (over 300 “pocket points”) underscores a significant perceived advantage for Delija, but savvy bettors will note that line shopping can yield extra value on either side.

### Line Movement & Key Swings  
- **Ante Delija:**  
  - Opened as low as –140 (BetOnline.ag), dove to –190 at peak heavy betting support, then eased back to the mid –160s as of Feb. 9.  
  - On Bovada, Delija oscillated between –175 and –180 for several days before briefly softening to –172.  
  - Overall swing: 50 points from opener to peak, then gradual correction.  
- **Serghei Spivac:**  
  - Debuted at +120 (BetOnline.ag), climbed to +165 amid early underdog bets, then settled around +143–+147 across major books.  
  - Bovada’s Spivac line bounced between +150 and +155 before dipping to +147.  
  - Total movement: 45 points from initial +120 to +165, retracting towards current mid +140s.

These shifts reflect bettors’ early confidence in Spivac’s grappling threat, then a resurgence of money on Delija’s knockout upside. The most dramatic swings occurred on BetOnline.ag, indicating that sharp bettors aggressively pursued the best available lines there.

### Best Sportsbook to Bet On  
- **Favorite (Delija):** BetOnline.ag at –163 offers the best return among major U.S. books.  
- **Underdog (Spivac):** Bovada at +147 provides the juiciest payout for Spivac backers.

### Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities  
- **$1,000 on Ante Delija (–163 at BetOnline.ag):**  
  - Payout: $1,613 (your $1,000 stake + $613 profit)  
  - Implied win probability: ~62%  
- **$1,000 on Serghei Spivac (+147 at Bovada):**  
  - Payout: $2,470 (your $1,000 stake + $1,470 profit)  
  - Implied win probability: ~40%  

While Delija’s line suggests a better than 6-in-10 chance to win, Spivac’s +147 underdog odds offer a substantial payout if he successfully executes his wrestling and ground-control game plan.  

### Key Takeaways for Bettors  
- Shop lines across Caesars, BetUS, Bovada, and BetOnline.ag to maximize value—small shifts of a few points can change your expected return by hundreds of dollars on a large stake.  
- Early swings indicate heavy betting on both men: opportunistic bettors pushed Spivac’s odds up, then the sharp money realigned Delija closer to –170.  
- If you believe Spivac’s wrestling can neutralize Delija’s power, locking in +147 at Bovada is the clear choice for underdog value. Conversely, if you trust Delija’s first-round stopping ability, –163 at BetOnline.ag is the most profitable favorite line.