UFC Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa Odds & Fight Analysis

Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa Fight Analysis

The featherweight clash between Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa is set to ignite the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, on Saturday, February 21, 2026 (local time), when the UFC Fight Night main card officially begins at 8:00 pm ET (01:00 UTC on February 22). This non–title bout will feature two fighters with contrasting career trajectories, divergent styles and very different positions on the odds boards—making it one of the most intriguing undercard showdowns of the evening.

Fight Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Strickland vs. Hernandez
• Date & Time: Saturday, February 21, 2026, 8:00 pm ET (01:00 UTC, February 22)
• Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, United States
• Division: Featherweight (145 lb)
• Card Placement: Main Card

The Betting Line: Favorite vs. Underdog

• Melquizael Costa (Brazil)
  • Odds: –210 (Caesars), –200 (Bovada), –220 (BetOnline.ag/BetUS)
  • Undisputed betting favorite entering on a five-fight UFC win streak
• Dan Ige (#14, United States)
  • Odds: +175 (Caesars), +170 (Bovada), +185 (BetOnline.ag)
  • The underdog looking to snap a two–bout skid

Costa’s status as the betting favorite is backed by his red-hot momentum—he has reeled off five consecutive victories since his UFC debut in January 2023, including a highlight–reel first-round knockout of Morgan Charriere and submission wins over veterans like Andre Fili. His all-around skill set (50% significant striking accuracy, 38% takedown accuracy, and 58% takedown defense) combined with a 25–7 professional record makes him a formidable test for anyone in the division.

Meanwhile, Dan Ige arrives with a 19–10 record and a pedigree built on gritty performances, slick Jiu-Jitsu and knockout power (7 KOs, 5 submissions). The 34-year-old Californian is riding the roller-coaster of recent UFC results—most recently delivering a third-round KO of Sean Woodson but suffering unanimous decision losses to Lerone Murphy and Diego Lopes. Ige’s 45% striking accuracy and 26% takedown success rate lag behind Costa’s, but his veteran savvy (UFC debut in July 2017) and durability (56% significant strike defense, 57% takedown defense) keep him very much in the mix.

What’s at Stake

For Costa, a sixth straight victory would propel him into the featherweight’s top 15 conversation and signal that his late-replacement debut run was no fluke. For Ige, a win over an unbeaten streaking opponent would arrest his recent slide and reinforce his status as a perennial Z-list threat. Both men bring finishing instincts—Costa with eight career submissions and ten first–round stoppages; Ige with seven first–round finishes of his own—setting the stage for fireworks in Houston.

In this fight breakdown, we’ll dive deeper into each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze their recent performances, and weigh the betting value to help you decide where to place your wager. Whether you back the surging Brazilian phenom or the battle-hardened American vet, this scrap promises to deliver high-octane action and a clear picture of who belongs in the featherweight hierarchy.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Melquizael Costa Profile

Age: 29
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with heavy submission and knockout pedigree
UFC Debut: Jan. 21, 2023

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Dec 13, 2025: Win vs. Morgan Charrière – KO/TKO (R1, 1:14)
• May 17, 2025: Win vs. Julian Erosa – Decision (Unanimous)
• Mar 29, 2025: Win vs. Christian Rodríguez – Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb 22, 2025: Win vs. Andre Fili – Submission (R1, 4:30)
• Jun 15, 2024: Win vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – Submission (R3, 1:50)

Costa arrives riding a five-fight UFC win streak, showcasing a balanced finish rate: 7 knockouts, 8 submissions, and 10 first-round stoppages in a 25-7 pro career.

Strengths:

• Finishing Instincts: 18 of 25 wins by stoppage; 40% of fights ended in Round 1.
• Striking Accuracy (50%): Lands half of all significant strikes attempted, constantly pressuring opponents.
• Takedown Defense (58%): Rarely taken down, allowing him to dictate where the fight goes.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Offense (38%): While competent, he can struggle to secure repeated level changes against elite wrestlers.
• Average Fight Time (10:55): Tends to slow down in championship-length exchanges; late-round cardio could be tested.

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Dan Ige Profile

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Jiu-Jitsu-based MMA with heavy hands
UFC Debut: July 25, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Jul 19, 2025: Loss vs. Patrício “Pitbull” Freire – Decision (Unanimous)
• Apr 12, 2025: Win vs. Sean Woodson – KO/TKO (R3, 1:12)
• Oct 26, 2024: Loss vs. Lerone Murphy – Decision (Unanimous)
• Jun 29, 2024: Loss vs. Diego Lopes – Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb 10, 2024: Win vs. Andre Fili – KO/TKO (R1, 2:43)

Ige’s 19-10 ledger includes 7 knockouts and 5 submissions. Though he boasts veteran savvy, he has alternated wins and losses in four of his last five bouts.

Strengths:

• Durability: Sig. Strike Defense (56%) and Takedown Defense (57%) keep him competitive even when under fire.
• Late-Round Power: Has secured finishes as late as Round 3, wearing down opponents with relentless pressure.
• Experience: Nearly eight years in the Octagon gives him high-level fight IQ against rising prospects.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy (45%): Trails Costa in precision, potentially leaving him open to counter-strikes.
• Takedown Offense (26%): Occasionally fails to follow up initial takedown attempts, limiting his ground-control upside.
• Age & Wear: At 34, back-to-back decision losses suggest he may struggle with younger, more dynamic foes.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Dynamics

• Pace & Pressure: Costa’s 50% striking accuracy and constant forward movement clash with Ige’s counter-striking and grappling defense.
• Finishing Versus Survival: Costa looks to end the fight early; Ige aims to weather the storm, drag the fight into deeper waters and exploit late-round openings.
• Clinch & Ground Exchanges: Costa’s superior takedown defense neutralizes Ige’s wrestling, but Ige’s jiu-jitsu on the mat could become a factor if he secures a single successful takedown.

This clash of styles—explosive Brazilian finisher versus battle-tested American grappler—will determine who rises in the featherweight ranks and who must recalibrate after a pivotal cage test in Houston.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Lines

• Melquizael Costa (Favorite)
  • Caesars: –210
  • Bovada: –200
  • BetOnline.ag: –220
  • BetUS: –220
  • BetMGM: –190 ← Best value for backing Costa
• Dan Ige (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +175
  • Bovada: +170
  • BetOnline.ag: +185 ← Best value for backing Ige
  • BetUS: +182
  • BetMGM: +155

Costa’s odds across the board confirm him as the clear favorite, while Ige offers bettors the higher return as the underdog. For sharp value, BetMGM’s –190 line on Costa and BetOnline.ag’s +185 on Ige represent the most attractive prices.

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Line Movement & Key Swings

Melquizael Costa

• BetOnline.ag opened at –180 (Feb 6) and spiked to –225 on Feb 8 before settling at –220.
• Bovada fluctuated between –205 and –198 over 24 hours leading into fight week.

These swings suggest heavy early support for Costa at BetOnline.ag, followed by bookmakers adjusting juice to balance action. Bovada’s smaller moves point to balanced interest among casual bettors.

Dan Ige

• BetOnline.ag opened at +155, rose to +190 (Feb 8), then tightened back to +185.
• Bovada oscillated narrowly between +168 and +173 before closing at +170.

The wider BetOnline.ag swings imply sharp bettors briefly saw more value on Ige, forcing lines up, then bookmakers corrected. Bovada’s stable line indicates moderate, consistent demand.

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Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

• $1,000 on Melquizael Costa at –190 (BetMGM):
  • Payout ≈ $1,526 total ($526 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied probability: roughly two-thirds chance to win
• $1,000 on Dan Ige at +185 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Payout ≈ $2,850 total ($1,850 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied probability: about a one-in-three shot

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Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite Play (Costa): BetMGM at –190 for the largest profit on a winning $1,000 wager.
• Underdog Play (Ige): BetOnline.ag at +185 for the highest upside on a $1,000 bet.

Whether you believe Costa’s five-fight streak and finishing acumen make him a near-lock, or you back Ige’s veteran grit and knockout power to engineer an upset, positioning your wager at the right sportsbook can boost your return. Keep an eye on any late line shifts—should significant money pour in on either side, the odds could move again as fight night approaches.