Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle Fight Analysis

Introduction

The featherweight clash between Jordan Leavitt and Yadier del Valle is set to headline the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez on Saturday, February 21, 2026, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The bout is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM GMT (4:00 PM local time) and will feature two dynamic grapplers looking to earn a springboard into higher-profile matchups on the UFC roster.

At the betting window, Cuban standout Yadier del Valle enters as a heavy favorite with moneyline odds around –380, reflective of his perfect 10–0–0 professional record and impressive finishing ability—four submissions and two knockouts to his name. The 29-year-old uses a calculated wrestling base, boasting a 43% takedown accuracy and 75% takedown defense, and has averaged just 7:12 of octagon time per fight. Since making his UFC debut on May 17, 2025, del Valle has showcased fast starts, securing back-to-back first-round submissions against Isaac Dulgarian and Connor Matthews.

On the other side, Jordan Leavitt is a sizable underdog at approximately +290, bringing a 12–3–0 record and relentless pace to the cage. The 30-year-old Las Vegas native relies on high-volume striking (landing 61% of his significant strikes) and slick jiu-jitsu—evidenced by seven submission victories and six first-round finishes in his career. Despite a 31% takedown accuracy and only 30% takedown defense, Leavitt’s average fight time of 6:17 demonstrates his willingness to push forward, mix levels, and force opponents into uncomfortable grappling exchanges.

This matchup pits del Valle’s technically sound wrestling and submission prowess against Leavitt’s non-stop pressure and crafty scrambling. Del Valle’s 67% significant strike accuracy and measured approach contrast sharply with Leavitt’s aggressive freestyle style, creating an intriguing chess match both on the feet and in the clinch. The question is whether Leavitt can survive early takedown attempts and turn del Valle’s offense into fatigue or whether del Valle will impose his dominant top game, chase a third straight first-round finish, and maintain his undefeated streak.

With UFC sportsbooks installing del Valle as a clear favorite and Leavitt as a live underdog, bettors will weigh the Cuban’s wrestling pedigree and finishing upside against the American’s relentless aggression and submission creativity. As one of the marquee opening-card bouts, Leavitt vs del Valle promises fireworks early in the evening and sets the tone for a night of high-stakes action in Houston.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Jordan Leavitt Profile

Name: Jordan Leavitt
Age: 30
Country: United States (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling / High-Volume Striking

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

• May 31, 2025 – Defeated Kurt Holobaugh via Submission (Arm-Triangle), Round 1 (1:39) ✔
• Nov 18, 2023 – Lost to Chase Hooper via Submission (Ankle Lock), Round 1 (2:58) ✘
• Feb 25, 2023 – Defeated Victor Martinez via KO/TKO (Punches), Round 1 (2:27) ✔
• Jul 23, 2022 – Lost to Paddy Pimblett via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Round 2 (2:46) ✘
• Apr 16, 2022 – Defeated Trey Ogden via Split Decision (5:00) ✔

Leavitt enters on a 3-2 run, alternating wins and losses. His victories showcase explosive power and slick jiu-jitsu, while both defeats came by submission against slick grapplers.

Strengths

• Submission Finisher: 7 of his 12 career wins by submission; regularly hunts chokes and armbars as the fight extends.
• High Output Striker: Lands 61% of significant strikes attempted, often overwhelming opponents with volume.
• First-Round Specialist: 6 of his 12 wins ended in Round 1, demonstrating aggressive starts.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 6:17 indicates willingness to push the pace and pressure opponents.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (30%): Struggles to stop heavy wrestlers, leaving him vulnerable to top control and ground-and-pound.
• Wrestling Under Duress: Opponents with strong sprawl-and-brawl can neutralize his offense.
• Submission Defense: Two losses via submission expose potential gaps when on his back.

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Yadier del Valle Profile

Name: Yadier del Valle
Age: 29
Country: Cuba
Fighting Style: Wrestling-Based MMA / Submission Grappling

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

• Nov 1, 2025 – Defeated Isaac Dulgarian via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Round 1 (3:41) ✔
• May 17, 2025 – Defeated Connor Matthews via Submission (Arm-Triangle), Round 1 (2:54) ✔
• (Prior to UFC) – Undefeated at 8-0 on regional circuit with multiple first-round finishes (TKO/Submissions)*

Del Valle is on a 10-0 tear, 100% finish rate, including back-to-back UFC submissions. His pace for early stoppages is relentless.

Strengths

• Elite Takedown Defense (75%): Shuts down opponents’ wrestling attempts, allowing him to dictate territory.
• Takedown Offense (43%): Initiates trips and double-legs with technical precision, often landing in dominant position.
• Submission Prowess: 4 submission wins highlight a deep grappling arsenal and control on the mat.
• Striking Efficiency: Lands 67% of significant strikes, picking shots carefully to set up level changes.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense (53%): Allows nearly half of opponents’ strikes, which could be exploited by high-output strikers.
• Limited UFC Sample Size: Only two UFC fights; level-step against Leavitt’s veteran presence is untested.
• Pacing in Deep Rounds: No fight has gone past midway through Round 1 in UFC, raising questions about his endurance in later rounds.

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Head-to-Head Synopsis

• Wrestling vs. Wrestling: Del Valle’s 75% takedown defense vs. Leavitt’s 30% defense – key battle for top control.
• Submission Threat: Both fighters thrive off their backs; scramble exchanges could produce early taps.
• Striking Contrast: Leavitt’s high-volume output (61% accuracy) vs. del Valle’s pinpoint efficiency (67%).

This matchup pits Leavitt’s relentless pace and submission creativity against del Valle’s technical wrestling base and finishing acumen. Each fighter’s statistical profile reveals clear advantages—del Valle in takedown exchanges, Leavitt in fight tempo and volume striking—setting the stage for a compelling chess match in the featherweight division.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Yadier del Valle is a heavy favorite across the board at roughly –380 on the moneyline, while Jordan Leavitt sits firmly in underdog territory at about +290. Here’s how the three major sportsbooks stack up:

• Bovada:
  • Yadier del Valle: –380
  • Jordan Leavitt: +290

• BetUS:
  • Yadier del Valle: –375
  • Jordan Leavitt: +294

• BetOnline.ag:
  • Yadier del Valle: –375
  • Jordan Leavitt: +310

The gap between favorite and underdog is substantial: Del Valle is viewed as a roughly 80% chance to win, while Leavitt’s upset odds translate into an underdog probability of around 25%. The consensus among bettors is clear: backing the Cuban wrestler is the safer play, but Leavitt’s live underdog status offers massive upside.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On
For underdog value, BetOnline.ag stands out with Leavitt at +310—the highest payout among the three. Meanwhile, those firmly backing del Valle will find near-identical lines at Bovada and BetOnline.ag, but can shop for small edge at BetUS (–375 vs. –380 elsewhere).

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Line Movement & Market Activity

A review of the odds history reveals moderate swings, driven by early money on the favorite and some counteraction from underdog backers:

• Yadier del Valle shifted between –350 and –390 from February 8 to early February 9. The line opened around –350, dipped as low as –390 when heavy action poured in, then settled back at –380.
• Jordan Leavitt mirrored that movement in reverse, oscillating between +275 and +295 on Bovada, before peaking at +310 on BetOnline.ag.

Largest swings occurred late on February 8, when del Valle briefly surged to –390 and Leavitt dipped to +275, signaling sharp money on the Cuban wrestler. However, a small late push on the American juggernaut pulled Leavitt back to +290/+294 at most books.

Overall, the market shows respect for del Valle’s undefeated record and elite wrestling. Yet Leavitt’s reputation for early finishes and scrappy submissions has drawn enough underdog bets to temper the line slightly.

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Potential Payout & Implied Probability

If you were to wager $1,000 today, here’s what you’d get back:

• Yadier del Valle (–380)
  • Profit: $263.16
  • Total Payout: $1,263.16

• Jordan Leavitt (+290) at Bovada/BetUS
  • Profit: $2,900
  • Total Payout: $3,900

• Jordan Leavitt (+310) at BetOnline.ag
  • Profit: $3,100
  • Total Payout: $4,100

Those numbers reflect the current lines without accounting for juice changes or small differences in bet sizing.

• Del Valle’s odds imply roughly an 80% chance to win.
• Leavitt’s odds imply around a 25% chance.

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Key Takeaways

• Favorite vs. Underdog: Del Valle is the strong favorite (–380) with dominant wrestling stats. Leavitt is the high-upside underdog (+290–+310) with submission grit.
• Line Movement: Moderate swings between –350/–390 and +275/+310, reflecting early heavy action on del Valle and a late underdog push.
• Best Value: For risk-tolerant bettors seeking a big payday, BetOnline.ag’s +310 line on Leavitt offers the most upside. For conservative action, Bovada and BetUS have near-identical del Valle lines and are equally solid.

Whether you prioritize likelihood or payout, this fight offers a clear favorite with a rock-solid wrestling base and a scrappy underdog whose submission game could flip the script in an instant.