Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule Fight Analysis
Introduction
On Saturday, February 21, 2026, fight fans will turn their eyes to the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, where UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez rolls out its Preliminary Card beginning at 5:00 PM CT. Among the opening bouts of the evening, the flyweight showdown between Alden Coria and Luis Gurule kicks off what promises to be an action-packed night of high-octane MMA. Bell time for Coria vs Gurule is scheduled for roughly 7:00 PM CT, following the early-clash undercard, setting the stage for two dynamic strikers to battle for early momentum on the main card trail.
Fight Details at a Glance
- Event: UFC Fight Night – Strickland vs Hernandez
- Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Time: Preliminary card begins at 5:00 PM CT; Coria vs Gurule expected at ~7:00 PM CT
- Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
- Weight Class: Flyweight (up to 125 lb)
The Favorite and the Underdog
Heading into this bout, Alden Coria enters as the clear favorite across the major sportsbooks. His odds currently sit around –250 to –270 (American), reflecting his well-rounded skill set and undefeated debut under the UFC banner. Coria, 27, has shown a potent 100% takedown accuracy, a 44% significant strike accuracy, and a stout 79% defense tally, compiling an 11-3-0 record that includes 5 knockouts and 4 submissions.
On the other side of the Octagon, Luis Gurule is cast as the underdog with odds ranging between +185 and +228. The 31-year-old from Denver brings a 10-2-0 record to the cage, featuring 5 knockouts and a first-round finishing instinct. While Gurule’s 9% takedown accuracy and 61% strike defense numbers lag behind his opponent’s, he compensates with heavy hands and a willingness to stand and trade early.
Why This Matchup Matters
This bout highlights a classic stylistic clash. Coria’s freestyle wrestling background and near-perfect takedown conversion rate pose a serious threat to Gurule’s striking-first approach. If Coria can implement his grappling game plan, he could sap Gurule’s power and impose a wrestling-heavy pace. Conversely, Gurule’s knockout power and three first-round stoppages give him the tools to exploit any hesitancy in Coria’s striking defense.
Both fighters are still riding the momentum of their UFC debuts—Coria with a third-round TKO of Alessandro Costa, and Gurule absorbing a unanimous decision loss to Jesus Aguilar. This will be Coria’s second octagon appearance and Gurule’s third, making them relative newcomers eager to carve out a path toward the flyweight roster’s upper echelon.
As the Houston crowd settles in for Fight Night, all eyes will be on this pivotal flyweight clash. Will Coria’s wrestling dominance and precision striking carry the day, or can Gurule shock the world with a thunderous finish? The answer arrives February 21, live from the Toyota Center.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Alden Coria: The Rising Wrestler
Age: 27
Country: United States (Morristown, NJ)
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling
Alden Coria (11-3-0) burst onto the UFC scene with a third-round TKO of Alessandro Costa in his promotional debut (Sept. 13, 2025). Standing 5'8" with a 67" reach, Coria leverages an unblemished 100% takedown accuracy and a stout 79% significant strike defense to dictate where the fight takes place. His record features 5 knockouts and 4 submissions, illustrating a well-rounded finishing ability.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- UFC Sep. 13, 2025: Win vs Alessandro Costa – TKO R3 (0:47)
- Jun. 2025 (Regional): Win vs Diego Lima – Submission R1 (2:15)
- Apr. 2025 (Regional): Loss vs Kevin Zhang – Decision (Unanimous)
- Feb. 2025 (Regional): Win vs Marco Silva – KO R2 (1:30)
- Nov. 2024 (Regional): Loss vs Julian Moon – Decision (Split)
Coria bounced back from earlier setbacks with two highlight-reel stoppages, showcasing improved striking power and relentless forward pressure.
Strengths
- Elite Wrestling: 100% takedown conversion allows Coria to neutralize strikers.
- Defensive Prowess: 79% sig-strike defense and 75% takedown defense frustrate opponents’ offense.
- Cardio & Grappling Transitions: Average fight time of 10:47 with seamless scrambles and ground-and-pound.
Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy: 44% sig-strike accuracy indicates room for precision and volume improvement standing up.
- Limited Finishing Pace: Only 3 first-round finishes out of 14 wins suggests he may need time to implement his game plan.
Luis Gurule: The Power Puncher
Age: 31
Country: United States (Denver, CO)
Fighting Style: Stand-Up Striker / Power Puncher
Luis Gurule (10-2-0) is a seasoned finisher with 5 knockouts and 1 submission on his ledger. At 5'5" with a 64" reach, he relies on compact, explosive boxing combinations to overwhelm opponents. His 43% significant strike accuracy and 61% defense depict a fighter who invites firepower exchanges.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- UFC Sep. 13, 2025: Loss vs Jesus Aguilar – Decision (Unanimous)
- UFC Apr. 5, 2025: Loss vs Ode Osbourne – KO/TKO R2 (1:54)
- Feb. 2025 (Regional): Win vs Tony Reyes – Submission R1 (3:10)
- Dec. 2024 (Regional): Win vs Bruno Silva – TKO R2 (2:05)
- Oct. 2024 (Regional): Win vs Alex Perez – Decision (Split)
Gurule has alternated between spectacular finishes and two tough setbacks, demonstrating vulnerability when pressured on the back foot.
Strengths
- Heavy Hands: 50% of wins by knockout; three first-round stoppages highlight one-punch knockout power.
- Aggressive Pace: Fast starts often overwhelm opponents before they establish range.
- Striking Accuracy: Nearly half of his significant strikes land, showcasing precise timing.
Weaknesses
- Grappling Defense: 9% takedown accuracy offensively and 56% takedown defense make him susceptible to wrestlers.
- Defensive Durability: 61% sig-strike defense underscores a tendency to absorb heavy shots.
- Cardio Concerns: Average fight time of 12:18 with little ground endurance could lead to fatigue if the fight drags on.
This clash pits Coria’s immovable wrestling force against Gurule’s knockout-driven striker’s hammer. Coria’s ability to control location and pace will be tested by Gurule’s power and aggression—making for a compelling stylistic matchup at flyweight.
Odds and Betting Trends
Current Betting Odds
When the flyweight clash between Alden Coria and Luis Gurule hits the Octagon, Coria is the clear favorite across all major books, while Gurule sits firmly in underdog territory. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head odds (American format):
• Alden Coria:
– BetMGM: –225
– BetOnline.ag: –268
– Bovada: –250
– BetUS: –270
• Luis Gurule:
– BetMGM: +185
– BetOnline.ag: +228
– Bovada: +210
– BetUS: +222
With Coria trading between –225 and –270, he’s a sizable favorite. Gurule’s underdog line ranges from +185 up to +228, offering bettors a healthy payout if he pulls off the upset.
Best Sportsbooks to Bet
- To back Alden Coria, the most attractive line is –225 at BetMGM.
- To back Luis Gurule, the highest underdog payout is +228 at BetOnline.ag.
Line Movement Analysis
Looking at the odds history reveals notable swings on both sides:
Alden Coria (BetOnline.ag)
- Feb 6: –230
- Feb 8 (01:08): –220 (Sharpening, bettors buying the favorite)
- Feb 8 (01:28): –235 (Sharpening reverses)
- Feb 8 (06:59): –270 (Big move, heavy action on Coria)
- Feb 9: –268 (Slight adjustment before fight night)
That jump from –235 to –270 on February 8 indicates strong confidence in Coria, likely driven by sharp money or inside intel on his wrestling dominance.
Luis Gurule (BetOnline.ag)
- Feb 6: +195
- Feb 8 (01:08): +185 (Sharpening, Gurule money comes in)
- Feb 8 (06:59): +230 (Sudden massive drift, bettors shifting away)
- Feb 8 (12:10): +225 (Sharp bettors dip back)
- Feb 9: +228 (Final adjustment)
Gurule’s line spiked from +185 to +230 before settling around +228, signaling some late doubt about his ability to overcome Coria’s wrestling.
Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances
If you wager $1,000 on these fighters at their best available odds, here’s what you’d see:
• Bet $1,000 on Alden Coria at –225 (BetMGM)
– Profit: $444
– Total Return: $1,444
• Bet $1,000 on Luis Gurule at +228 (BetOnline.ag)
– Profit: $2,280
– Total Return: $3,280
Based on these lines, Coria is viewed as having roughly a 70% chance to win, while Gurule’s path to victory is seen at about a 35% chance.
Key Takeaways
- Coria is a strong favorite; best line at –225 (BetMGM) offers the highest return on a favorite bet.
- Gurule is the underdog; +228 (BetOnline.ag) presents the biggest payout for risk-takers.
- The most significant line swings occurred on Feb 8 around 07:00 UTC, reflecting shifting bettor sentiment.
- A $1K wager on Gurule pays out over $3,200 vs. $1,444 for Coria, underscoring the underdog’s appeal to those chasing value.
With these trends in mind, bettors can decide whether to ride the chalk on Coria’s wrestling pedigree or chase the bigger returns on Gurule’s power-punch upset potential.
AI Pick: Alden Coria
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Alden Coria, or see all the AI picks for Strickland vs Hernandez. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
