Zellhuber vs King Green: UFC Odds & Fight Analysis

Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green fight analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated Lightweight showdown between Daniel Zellhuber and King Green is set to headline the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh, airing live from Arena CDMX in México D.F. The bout is scheduled for March 1, 2026, with the official walk-out time slated at 1:00 AM UTC (local time evening of February 28). As the main event of UFC’s return to Mexico, this fight carries significant intrigue: a rising Mexican prospect taking on a seasoned American veteran.

Event Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh
• Venue: Arena CDMX, México D.F., CDMX, Mexico
• Date & Time: March 1, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
• Division: Lightweight (155 lb)
• Stage: Main Card, featured fight

This clash features 26-year-old Daniel Zellhuber (15–3–0) as the overwhelming favorite, carrying -500 odds across multiple sportsbooks, while 39-year-old King Green (33–17–1) enters as the underdog at +360 to +400. The disparity in odds underscores the narrative: a dynamic, long-limbed Mexican contender, on a mission to solidify his place among the lightweight elite, versus a battle-tested American striker known for explosive finishes and veteran savvy.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Home-Town Advantage: Zellhuber is a hometown favorite, boasting an imposing 73-inch reach and a style that blends slick grappling defense (95% takedown defense) with evolving striking power. Fighting in front of his countrymen adds extra motivation and a massive crowd behind him.
2. Veteran Experience: Green brings an overall record of 33 wins, including 11 first-round finishes, and has competed at the highest level since his UFC debut in 2012. While his recent run has been inconsistent (two wins, three losses over last five outings), his ability to land significant strikes (53% accuracy) and defend against takedowns (73%) makes him dangerous if he can weather Zellhuber’s youth and reach.
3. Title Picture Implications: For Zellhuber, a decisive victory could catapult him into the top-15 rankings, putting him within striking distance of marquee opponents. For Green, an upset would rejuvenate a veteran career and potentially extend his UFC tenure with a statement performance on foreign soil.

As fight week kicks off in Mexico City, all eyes will be on the clash of styles: Zellhuber’s long-range control and takedown defense versus Green’s power punching and veteran craft. The betting markets have spoken—Zellhuber is the prohibitive favorite, but in MMA, home crowd energy and veteran instincts can flip odds in a heartbeat. This Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green matchup promises fireworks, tactical chess, and the kind of high-stakes drama that defines UFC fight nights.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green: Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Daniel Zellhuber: The Mexican Freestyle Phenom

• Age & Origin: 26-year-old from Mexico City, Mexico
• Fighting Style: Freestyle—relies on range management, wrestling defense and gradual pressure
• Physical Attributes: 6'1" height, 77" arm reach, 43.5" leg reach
• UFC Record: 15-3-0

Recent Form

1. Jul. 19, 2025 – Loss (Unanimous Decision) vs Michael Johnson
2. Sep. 14, 2024 – Loss (Split Decision) vs Esteban Ribovics
3. Feb. 24, 2024 – Win (Unanimous Decision) vs Francisco Prado
4. Sep. 16, 2023 – Win (Submission, R2) vs Christos Giagos
5. Apr. 15, 2023 – Win (Unanimous Decision) vs Lando Vannata

Zellhuber started his UFC tenure with three straight victories, but consecutive defeats in 2024–25 exposed areas for improvement. He remains on an overall 3-2 run over his last five octagon outings.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (95%): Elite defensive wrestling neutralizes late-stage grapplers.
• Reach & Range Control: 77" reach allows him to dictate striking distance and frustrate shorter opponents.
• Cardio & Endurance: 14:04 average fight time suggests he maintains pace deep into championship rounds.
• Finishing Instincts: Five first-round finishes showcase the ability to capitalize on early openings.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (39%): Below-average significant strike connect rate can hamper output against high-volume strikers.
• Takedown Offense (25%): Limited wrestling initiation may force him to rely on defensive tactics rather than proactive grappling.
• Chin Durability: Two recent decision losses indicate vulnerability to pressure and power over multiple rounds.

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King Green: The Veteran American Finisher

• Age & Origin: 39-year-old from San Bernardino, United States
• Fighting Style: Traditional MMA—power striking blends with opportunistic grappling
• Physical Attributes: 5'10" height, 71" arm reach, 40" leg reach
• UFC Record: 33-17-1

Recent Form

1. Dec. 13, 2025 – Win (Split Decision) vs Lance Gibson Jr.
2. Mar. 8, 2025 – Loss (KO/TKO, R1) vs Mauricio Ruffy
3. Jul. 27, 2024 – Loss (Submission, R1) vs Paddy Pimblett
4. Apr. 13, 2024 – Win (Unanimous Decision) vs Jim Miller
5. Dec. 2, 2023 – Loss (Decision) vs Jalin Turner

Green enters the bout with a 2-3 skid in his last five, alternating wins and losses. His veteran savvy and finishing pedigree remain his calling cards.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (53%): Above-average connect rate fuels his power-punching style.
• Takedown Offense (40%): Mixes in wrestling attempts to keep opponents guessing.
• Finishing Rate: 11 first-round stoppages highlight his ability to end fights quickly.
• Significant Strike Defense (62%): Solid head movement and footwork reduce incoming damage.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (73%): Vulnerable to elite wrestlers—Zellhuber’s defensive prowess may neutralize this weapon.
• Age & Durability: At 39, deep cardio testing and speed exchanges could expose declining athleticism.
• Average Fight Time (10:59): Tends to favor early finishes; may struggle in drawn-out, methodical contests.

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Matchup Analysis

This bout pits Zellhuber’s size, takedown defense and durable cardio against Green’s power striking, veteran timing and finishing mentality. Zellhuber’s reach and wrestling wall should stifle Green’s early blitz, but if the veteran can land heavy counters or secure positional grappling, he could derail the younger man’s rhythm. Ultimately, the clash of youth versus experience, range control versus power, and endurance versus explosiveness will decide who emerges victorious in this defining lightweight encounter.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh, Daniel Zellhuber is the heavy favorite across every major sportsbook:

• BetOnline.ag: -500
• BetRivers: -500
• BetUS: -500
• Bovada: -510
• FanDuel: -520
• DraftKings: -535

By contrast, King Green is the clear underdog, with moneyline prices ranging from +350 at FanDuel to +400 at DraftKings:

• FanDuel: +350
• BetRivers: +360
• BetOnline.ag: +375
• Bovada: +370
• BetUS: +369
• DraftKings: +400

The gap between the two fighters is stark: Zellhuber’s odds imply he is heavily favored to win, while Green’s underdog number reflects the difficulty of an upset on Mexican soil against a younger, longer-reach opponent.

Best Sportsbook for Each Side

• If you believe in Zellhuber, the most generous pricing is available at BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, or BetUS where he’s -500.
• If you’re backing the underdog King Green, DraftKings offers the juiciest line at +400, maximizing your potential payout.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

Since the fight was opened on February 16, the moneylines have shown remarkable stability. All books published their initial odds within minutes of each other and, to date, there have been no significant shifts. The largest cross-book swing is only 35 cents on Zellhuber’s line (from –500 to –535) and 50 cents on Green’s (+350 to +400). This suggests either:

1. Balanced early action—sharp and casual bettors have bet both sides in similar proportions.
2. Lack of new news—no injuries, weight concerns, or public arguments have shifted sentiment.

With no major line swings, the market believes the established narrative—Zellhuber as the prohibitive favorite—will hold firm through fight week.

Implied Probabilities & Potential Payouts

Based on the current odds, the implied win probabilities (rounding to the nearest whole) are roughly:

• Daniel Zellhuber: 83% chance to win
• King Green: 20–22% chance to win

(Exact percentages vary slightly by sportsbook.)

If you wager $1,000:

• On Zellhuber at -500, you would profit $200, for a total return of $1,200.
• On King Green at +400, you would profit $4,000, for a total return of $5,000.

Summary

• Favorite: Daniel Zellhuber (–500 to –535)
• Underdog: King Green (+350 to +400)
• Best value on the favorite: BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS at -500
• Best value on the underdog: DraftKings at +400
• Line movement: Negligible; initial odds have held steady, signaling confidence in the projection of Zellhuber’s dominance.

Given the stability of the lines, the consensus is clear: Zellhuber is heavily favored to control the center of the Octagon with his size, takedown defense and cardio, while Green must land big early or risk fighting uphill in enemy territory.