UFC Gafurov vs Wiklacz: Fight Analysis & Betting Odds

Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On Sunday, February 7, 2026, two of the UFC’s most exciting bantamweights will square off at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, when Muin Gafurov meets Jakub Wiklacz on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira. This bout is scheduled for three five-minute rounds and will kick off at approximately 3:00 PM PT (23:00 UTC), setting the stage for an intense grappling and striking showcase before the main card.

With both men hovering around the same weight and bringing contrasting skill sets into the Octagon, fans can expect a tactical chess match. Betting markets have already opened, with Wiklacz listed as a slight favorite at -115 (BetOnline.ag) and Gafurov as the underdog at -105. Despite the narrow margin, these odds reflect the fine line between two fighters whose professional resumes suggest this could go either way.

Key Storylines

• Grappling vs. Sambo: Poland’s Jakub Wiklacz (17-3-2, 10 submissions) enters on the strength of a 100% takedown defense record inside the UFC and a reputation as a relentless submission specialist. In contrast, Tajikistan’s Muin Gafurov (20-6-0, 10 knockouts) is a decorated sambo champion whose powerful striking and world-class first-round finishing rate (70% of his wins) could neutralize Wiklacz’s ground game.
• Experience Under the Lights: Wiklacz made his UFC debut just last October, edging out veteran Patrick Mix via split decision in a grueling three-round battle. Gafurov, meanwhile, debuted in mid-2023 and has since gone 2–2, with wins over Rinya Nakamura and Kyung Ho Kang but setbacks against Said Nurmagomedov and John Castaneda.
• Styles and Stats:
  • Wiklacz: 55% significant strike accuracy, 36% defense, 0% takedown accuracy (prefers submissions off scrambles), 29% takedown defense.
  • Gafurov: 46% striking accuracy, 53% defense, 26% takedown accuracy, and an imposing 70% takedown defense rate.

Why This Fight Matters

As two of the division’s hungriest athletes, Gafurov and Wiklacz will be fighting not only for victory in Las Vegas, but for momentum toward a potential top-15 ranking in one of the UFC’s deepest weight classes. A win here could vault the victor into the conversation for a main-card spot and tougher matchups down the line.

Whether you lean toward Wiklacz’s submission prowess or Gafurov’s explosive offensive bursts, this preliminary showdown promises significant action. With the betting odds nearly even, expect both men to push the pace, test each other in every phase, and leave it all on the canvas as they battle for bantamweight bragging rights on February 7th.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Muin Gafurov

Age: 28 • Country: Tajikistan • Fighting Style: Sambo
Professional Record: 20-6-0 (10 KOs, 7 Submissions)
UFC Tenure: Debuted June 3, 2023

Recent Form

• Jan. 18, 2025: Win vs. Rinya Nakamura (Decision – Unanimous)
• June 22, 2024: Win vs. Kyung Ho Kang (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 21, 2023: Loss vs. Said Nurmagomedov (Submission, R1 1:13)
• June 3, 2023: Loss vs. John Castaneda (Decision – Unanimous)

Gafurov is coming off back-to-back unanimous-decision victories after a pair of setbacks in his UFC debut year. He has re-established momentum with crisp striking and relentless pressure, showing improved pacing and defensive discipline.

Jakub Wiklacz

Age: 29 • Country: Poland • Fighting Style: Grappler
Professional Record: 17-3-2 (10 Submissions, 0 KOs)
UFC Tenure: Debuted Oct. 4, 2025

Recent Form

• Oct. 4, 2025: Win vs. Patrick Mix (Decision – Split)

Wiklacz’s Oct. 2025 debut showcased his transition from the regional scene to the world stage. A veteran of multiple European circuits, he brings 10 career submission victories—including 7 first-round finishes—and exceptional scrambling ability.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Muin Gafurov

Strengths

• Explosive Striking: 46% significant strike accuracy and 53% defense allow him to land powerful combinations while minimizing incoming damage.
• Finishing Instincts: 14 first-round finishes (70% of wins) demonstrate his ability to close distance and end fights early.
• Takedown Defense: 70% success in fending off takedown attempts keeps the fight standing where he holds the advantage.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: At 26% accuracy, his wrestling entries can be predictable and stall out against strong grapplers.
• Cardio Over Distance: Average fight time of 12:15 suggests fatigue may set in during high-pace, late-round exchanges.
• Decision Battles: Two recent decision wins hint that he can struggle to finish higher-level foes who weather his early storms.

Jakub Wiklacz

Strengths

• Submission Craft: 10 career submissions and 29% takedown defense point to elite grappling control once the fight hits the mat.
• Durability & Heart: Zero knockout wins in 17 victories shows he can withstand pressure and impose his game plan over three rounds.
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 55% landing rate reflects efficient striking—often used to set up his takedowns and clinch entries.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 36% significant strike defense makes him susceptible to clean counters from heavy hitters.
• Takedown Volume: 0% recorded takedown accuracy in the UFC suggests he needs to refine his entries against world-class wrestlers.
• Limited Octagon Experience: One UFC bout means he has yet to prove his adaptability under pressure against multiple stylistic threats.

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This clash of Gafurov’s explosive Sambo-based offense vs. Wiklacz’s relentless submission acumen sets up a classic striker-versus-grappler puzzle. Each fighter brings elite strengths and exploitable gaps, making this bantamweight tilt a compelling study in styles and in-cage strategy.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Moneyline Odds

As of the latest update, the odds at BetOnline.ag sit nearly dead-even:

• Jakub Wiklacz: –115 (favorite)
• Muin Gafurov: –105 (underdog)

With only a 10-cent gap on the moneyline, this fight is priced like a virtual pick’em. Wiklacz holds a slight edge in closing odds, but Gafurov’s underdog status at –105 still offers value for bettors confident in his Sambo-driven power game.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the shifts in this matchup reveals an ebb and flow of sharp and public money:

• Jan. 26, 18:09 ET
– Wiklacz +100, Gafurov –120
(Gafurov opened as a moderate favorite.)

• Jan. 26, 18:19 ET
– Wiklacz –120, Gafurov +100
(Sharp action flipped the line in Wiklacz’s favor within ten minutes.)

• Jan. 26, 20:28 ET
– Wiklacz –105, Gafurov –115
(Both sides tightened, signaling balanced money on each fighter.)

• Jan. 27, 08:29 ET
– Wiklacz –115, Gafurov –105
(Final movement gave Wiklacz a slim nod as the favorite.)

These swings show early respect for Gafurov’s knockout upside, a mid-evening influx of backing for Wiklacz’s grappling, then late momentum favoring Poland’s submission ace.

Payouts and Implied Chances

If you wager $1,000 on either fighter, here’s what you’d walk away with:

• Betting $1,000 on Jakub Wiklacz at –115
– Approximate total return: $1,870

• Betting $1,000 on Muin Gafurov at –105
– Approximate total return: $1,950

These payouts reflect the narrow edge the bookmakers see between them. In plain terms, Wiklacz’s line suggests he has just over a fifty-fifty chance to win, while Gafurov’s number implies only a hair less.

Best Sportsbook Recommendation

BetOnline.ag currently offers the tightest lines and deepest liquidity on this bout, making it the top choice for bettors looking to maximize value. Whether you back the grappling prowess of Wiklacz or the Sambo-powered striking of Gafurov, locking in these close moneylines at BetOnline.ag ensures you’ll secure the best possible payout on fight night.