UFC 326: Rodrigues vs Ferreira Odds & Betting Analysis

Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira Fight Analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated Middleweight clash between Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira is set to electrify the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 7, 2026, as part of the main card at UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2. This pivotal bout is scheduled to begin at approximately 7:00 PM PT (10:00 PM ET) and will be broadcast live worldwide. Although not a title fight, this matchup carries significant implications for both men’s trajectories in the #13 vs #15 divisional rankings.

As fight night approaches, the oddsmakers have installed Gregory Rodrigues as the clear favorite, currently priced around –190 to –205 on major books such as Bovada, BetOnline.ag, and DraftKings. Rodrigues (18-6-0) brings a potent mix of wrestling and ground-and-pound, boasting a 75% takedown defense and a 52% striking accuracy. The 33-year-old Brazilian has finished 11 of his 18 wins inside the distance, including eight first-round stoppages, and enters this bout riding the momentum of a unanimous decision victory over Roman Kopylov in November 2025.

On the other side of the Octagon stands Brunno Ferreira, the underdog at +163 to +170, who carries a 15-2-0 record highlighted by nine knockouts and five submissions. Ferreira’s toolkit revolves around explosive grappling and heavy hands; he averages a finish every 6 minutes and 27 seconds inside the cage and has secured 11 first-round stoppages in his career. Riding the wave of a unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori in December 2025, Ferreira will look to exploit any opportunities to take this bout to the mat, where his 61% takedown defense and 24% takedown accuracy could come into play.

Both fighters hail from Brazil, share the same age (33), and employ a grappler’s mindset, creating a tantalizing stylistic matchup. Rodrigues stands at 75 inches tall with a 75-inch reach, while Ferreira measures 70 inches with a 72-inch reach, setting the stage for potential striking pitfalls and clinch exchanges. With the main event being a grudge rematch headlined by two former champions, all eyes will also be on this pivotal middleweight showdown to see which contender can separate himself as a legitimate future title challenger.

In this fight breakdown, we’ll delve deeper into each athlete’s recent performances, key strengths and vulnerabilities, historical head-to-head trends, and how the betting markets are shifting as fight night approaches. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a UFC enthusiast, this analysis will equip you with the essential insights to understand the dynamics at play when Gregory Rodrigues faces off against Brunno Ferreira under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Gregory Rodrigues Profile

Age: 33 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Grappler
Record: 18–6–0
UFC Tenure: Debuted June 5, 2021
Physical Attributes: 75″ height, 75″ reach, 185.8 lb

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Nov. 15, 2025: Win vs. Roman Kopylov – Decision (Unanimous)
• June 28, 2025: Loss vs. Jack Hermansson – Decision
• Feb. 15, 2025: Loss vs. Jared Cannonier – KO/TKO (R4, 0:21)
• July 27, 2024: Win vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Decision (Unanimous)
• Feb. 10, 2024: Win vs. Brad Tavares – KO/TKO (R3, 0:55)

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (75%): Among the elite in the division, Rodrigues consistently keeps the fight standing if he chooses, neutralizing wrestling specialists.
• Finishing Ability: 11 of 18 wins by KO, 8 first-round stoppages. Big power and a diverse ground-and-pound arsenal make him dangerous at any moment.
• Reach Advantage: A 75″ reach over Ferreira’s 72″ allows Rodrigues to dictate range with jabs and front kicks.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (35%): Moderate success securing trips against top-level wrestlers; may struggle to impose his grappling on elite takedown-defense opponents.
• Striking Defense (51%): Vulnerable to high-volume strikers; conceding half of opponents’ significant strikes can lead to rough exchanges.
• Inconsistency in Decision Fights: Two of his last three decisions were losses—Rodrigues must avoid prolonged striking battles where pace and cardio become factors.

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Brunno Ferreira Profile

Age: 33 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Grappler
Record: 15–2–0
UFC Tenure: Debuted Jan. 21, 2023
Physical Attributes: 70″ height, 72″ reach, 189 lb

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Dec. 6, 2025: Win vs. Marvin Vettori – Decision (Unanimous)
• July 19, 2025: Win vs. Jackson Mcvey – Submission (R1, 3:35)
• March 8, 2025: Win vs. Armen Petrosyan – Submission (R2, 4:27)
• Oct. 26, 2024: Loss vs. Abus Magomedov – Submission (R3, 3:14)
• June 8, 2024: Win vs. Dustin Stoltzfus – KO/TKO (R1, 4:51)

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: Nine knockouts and five submissions; averages a finish every 6:27, making him one of the most dangerous early-fight threats at 185 lb.
• Submission Offense: 24% takedown accuracy supplements slick top-control and a solid guard game; Ferreira can capitalize on scrambles more efficiently than most.
• Strike Defense (52%): Slightly above average in middleweight, allowing him to counter effectively during clinch and takedown entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (61%): More porous than Rodrigues’, potentially exposing him to sustained grappling pressure and top-control.
• Striking Accuracy (51%): Good but not elite; may struggle against Rodrigues’ longer reach to land signature power shots.
• Cardio in Deep Waters: Three of his five career losses came by decision or late-fight submissions, hinting at potential gas tank issues if unable to finish early.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

Both fighters share a 33-year-old Brazilian grappler identity, but stylistic nuances separate them. Rodrigues will look to use his length and powerful wrestling defense to keep the fight in pocket striking or grind on the mat when advantageous. Ferreira’s path to victory lies in explosive entries, quick submissions, and heavy counters to exploit Rodrigues’ 51% striking defense. The battle of takedown offense vs. takedown defense—35% vs. 75%—will be the defining statistic, while each man’s finishing instincts promise fireworks. Whether Rodrigues can impose his pace or Ferreira can snatch an early submission will determine who climbs the divisional ladder and who falls further behind.

Odds and Betting History

Current Odds Snapshot

• Gregory Rodrigues (Favorite):
  • Bovada: –190 • BetOnline.ag: –190 • DraftKings: –205
• Brunno Ferreira (Underdog):
  • Bovada: +163 • BetOnline.ag: +165 • DraftKings: +170

Rodrigues is firmly established as the betting favorite across all major books, trading around –190 to –205, while Ferreira sits in underdog territory at +163 to +170. The widest spread is on DraftKings, where you can back Ferreira at +170 (the best value for his camp) or Rodrigues at –205 (the least attractive line for the favorite).

Line Movement & Large Swings

A quick glance at the odds history reveals some notable fluctuations:

• Brunno Ferreira (BetOnline.ag): opened as high as +195, dipped to +146, then settled around +165. That 49-point swing suggests sharp money came in on Rodrigues at one point, only for Ferreira support to rebound late.
• Gregory Rodrigues (BetOnline.ag): initially posted at –171, spiked out to –230 after early betting, then settled back near –190 as his stock normalized.

Across Bovada, Rodrigues’ line has oscillated between –198 and –190, while Ferreira’s has danced between +163 and +168—small tweaks driven by public betting patterns. The more dramatic back-and-forth on BetOnline.ag indicates both sides have found advocates at different stages.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Underdog Play (Ferreira): DraftKings’ +170 offers the highest upside.
• Favorite Play (Rodrigues): Bovada or BetOnline.ag at –190 is superior to DraftKings’ –205, maximizing your potential return on the favorite.

$1,000 Wager Payouts & Implied Probabilities

• Betting $1,000 on Brunno Ferreira at +170
  • Total Payout: $2,700 (your $1,000 stake + $1,700 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~37%
• Betting $1,000 on Gregory Rodrigues at –190
  • Total Payout: $1,526 (your $1,000 stake + $526 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~66%

What This Means for Bettors

• Risk vs. Reward: Ferreira represents the classic underdog swing—you risk $1,000 to gain $1,700 if he scores the upset, but his implied 37% chance means he’ll need solid value to attract wise money.
• Line Oscillations: The biggest swings on BetOnline.ag signal “sharp” activity; watching these line moves in real time can indicate where the smart money is flowing.
• Shop Around: Always compare odds across multiple books. A few points difference on underdog moneylines (e.g., +163 vs. +170) can substantially boost your long-term profitability.

Whether you lean toward Rodrigues’ consistent grappling base or Ferreira’s explosive finishing upside, understanding these odds dynamics—and placing your $1,000 on the most favorable line—will ensure you get the best return on your wager.