Durden vs Tumendemberel Odds, Profiles & AI Pick | UFC 326

Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel fight analysis

Introduction

The flyweight clash between Cody Durden and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel is set to ignite the preliminary card at UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2, taking place on Sunday, March 8, 2026 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This three-round bout is scheduled to kick off the action under the bright lights of the MGM Resorts complex, with doors opening early and the televised prelims expected to begin in the late afternoon PT / early evening ET. Fans tuning in around the world can catch this pivotal flyweight matchup as the first official contest of the night, a pivotal opportunity for both men to build momentum heading into 2026.

Standing in the blue corner is Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (9-1-0, 27 years old), a rising star from Bayanbulag, Mongolia, who made his UFC debut just under two years ago. With a ground-heavy skill set boasting 6 submissions and 4 first-round finishes, Tumendemberel is the clear favorite heading into this encounter. DraftKings currently lists him at -148, Bovada at -150, and BetOnline at -140—a consensus that reflects his 39% takedown accuracy, 55% takedown defense, and solid 53% significant strike defense. After a split decision loss in his last outing against Carlos Hernandez, “Tumen” is highly motivated to prove that he belongs among the flyweight elite.

In the red corner stands seasoned veteran Cody Durden (17-9-1, 34 years old), hailing from the United States and known for his pressure-oriented striking and relentless pace. Durden, who debuted in the UFC in August 2020, brings 6 knockouts, 6 submissions, and a remarkable 9 first-round finishes to the Octagon. Despite dropping three of his last five fights—including a second-round submission defeat to Allan Nascimento—Durden remains a dangerous underdog at +124 on DraftKings, +130 on Bovada, and +120 on BetOnline. His 47% takedown accuracy and standout 75% takedown defense suggest he can both initiate grappling exchanges and thwart Tumendemberel’s ground attacks.

This matchup offers a classic striker-vs-grappler narrative. Durden’s potent boxing volume and improved takedown defense will clash with Tumendemberel’s submission pedigree and aggressive wrestling. Age and experience play a role too: Durden’s 34 years to Tumendemberel’s 27, Durden’s 26 professional fights to Tumendemberel’s 10. Oddsmakers have sided with the younger Mongolian but expect fireworks either way. With each man desperate for a win and a chance to climb the flyweight rankings, this opener promises fast-paced action, early takedown attempts, and potential submission scrambles.

As the first bout of UFC 326, Durden vs Tumendemberel not only sets the tone for the evening but could reshape the trajectory of both careers. Whether you’re backing the undefeated Mongolian favorite or riding with the battle-tested American underdog, this fight demands attention from start to finish. Don’t miss our full breakdown and best bet recommendations in the sections that follow.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2 can be found on the Holloway vs Oliveira 2 event page.

Fighter Profiles & Matchup Analysis

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel: The Mongolian Submission Specialist

Age: 27 • Country: Mongolia • Fighting Style: MMA (Grappling-Heavy)
Background & Recent Form:

• Professional record of 9-1-0, making her UFC debut on June 1, 2024.
• In her lone UFC outing, “Tumen” dropped a split-decision loss to Carlos Hernandez (Nov. 23, 2024), showcasing her durability and grappling exchanges over three hard-fought rounds.
• Prior to joining the UFC, she rattled off 9 straight wins—including six submissions and two knockouts—demonstrating a relentless ground game.

Strengths:

• Submission pedigree: 6 of her 9 career victories have come via submission. She boasts a 39% takedown accuracy, and once she locks her hooks in, her opponents are under constant threat of being choked or armbared.
• Takedown defense: A respectable 55% takedown defense means she can shrug off half of her opponents’ wrestling attempts, immediately scrambling back to a dominant top position.
• Significant strike defense: She defends 53% of significant strikes, allowing her to close distance and initiate clinch or single-leg entries with fewer damaged points.

Weaknesses:

• Striking output and accuracy: Landing only 39% of her significant strikes, Nyamjargal can struggle to keep aggressive strikers at bay. If stifled against the cage, she may accumulate damage before finding her takedown.
• Experience gap: With only 10 total pro fights, she has less ring time under pressure compared to veteran opponents.

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Cody Durden: The American Pressure Fighter

Age: 34 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: Striker / Pressure Wrestling
Background & Recent Form:

• UFC veteran since August 1, 2020, compiling a 17-9-1 pro record.
• Durden has gone 1-4 in his last five, most recently submitting Matt Schnell in 29 seconds (Sept. 7, 2024) but falling to Joshua Van (Dec. 7, 2024), Jose Ochoa (Jun. 14, 2025), and Allan Nascimento (Nov. 1, 2025).
• Despite the skid, he remains a high‐volume pressure fighter with nine first‐round finishes on his résumé.

Strengths:

• Takedown defense: A standout 75%, Durden will be tough to wrestle down and keep grounded—an immediate threat to neutralize Tumendemberel’s grappling attack.
• Striking accuracy and pace: Landing 45% of his significant strikes, Cody presses forward behind crisp boxing combinations, generated from tight angles and relentless pressure.
• Finishing instinct: With 9 first-round finishes, he often overwhelms opponents early before they can settle into rhythm.

Weaknesses:

• Submission defense: While he defends takedowns, Durden has been caught in submissions (e.g., losing to Nascimento via guillotine), suggesting lapses in scramble defense.
• Recent consistency: Four losses in five outings point to either stylistic mismatches or declining durability against top-10-to-20 flyweights.

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Matchup Breakdown

This fight offers a classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic:

• Durden’s pressure striking and superior takedown defense will test whether Tumendemberel can execute her wrestling game plan.
• Tumendemberel’s submission arsenal and ability to survive early storms put her one deep armhole or triangle away from a fight-ending sequence.
• Durden’s higher Sig. Strike Accuracy (45% vs. 39%) suggests he can land cleaner shots, but her Sig. Strike Defense (53% vs. 50%) evens the playing field for Nyamjargal.
• On the mat, Durden must avoid overextending on single-leg entries to prevent guillotine traps, while Tumendemberel has to chain her takedowns and submissions to catch him off guard.

Ultimately, this clash of contrasting styles will hinge on Durden’s ability to keep the fight upright and pressure his opponent, versus Tumendemberel’s resilience under fire and her hunt for submission openings once the pace slows. Expect a tactical chess match peppered with sudden bursts of explosive offense.

Odds & Betting Trends

Current Betting Lines

As of the latest update, the betting markets firmly favor Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden, though the margin is not overwhelming. Here’s a snapshot of the best available odds:

• Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: –140
  • DraftKings: –148
  • Bovada: –150

• Cody Durden (Underdog)

  • Bovada: +130
  • DraftKings: +124
  • BetOnline.ag: +120

The consensus lines place Tumendemberel between –140 and –150, making her a solid favorite. Durden, meanwhile, sits in the +120 to +130 range, attracting value-hunters who believe his tenacity and wrestling pedigree can offset his role as the underdog.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• For backing the favorite, BetOnline.ag’s –140 offers the highest possible return (lowest juice).
• For backing the underdog, Bovada’s +130 is the most generous line on Durden, yielding the biggest profit if he pulls off the upset.

Line Movement & Shifts

Examining the historical odds reveals moderate fluctuations as bettors have reacted to interviews, weigh-in results, and public betting percentages:

• Tumendemberel’s Bovada line opened around –145, dipped briefly to –150, then ticked back to –145 before settling at –150. Small adjustments reflect healthy support for her grappling advantage.
• Tumendemberel’s BetOnline.ag line swung from –130 up to –150 over two weeks, indicating rising confidence among sharps.
• Durden’s BetOnline.ag line began as high as +110, climbed to +130 after late money on the favorite, then stabilized at +120.

Overall, neither fighter has seen wild, sudden shifts of more than a touchdown in American odds—suggesting a steady market without significant injury scares or late-breaking intel.

Betting Payout & Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 on either competitor today, here’s how the payouts would look:

• $1,000 on Tumendemberel at –140 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Profit: $714
  • Total Return: $1,714

• $1,000 on Durden at +130 (Bovada):
  • Profit: $1,300
  • Total Return: $2,300

Based on these odds, Tumendemberel carries roughly a 60% implied chance of victory, while Durden represents about a 44% shot. These percentages reflect how oddsmakers and the betting public are splitting their faith.

Key Takeaways

• Tumendemberel is the clear favorite, but the line still offers value on Durden’s underdog price, especially at +130.
• BetOnline.ag provides the sharpest pricing for the favorite’s shorter line, whereas Bovada delivers the juiciest underdog payout.
• Line movement has been gradual, with no dramatic late-money swings, indicating a stable market consensus.

Whether you’re backing the grappling ace or the pressure-striking veteran, knowing where to shop for the best number—–140 at BetOnline.ag or +130 at Bovada—can maximize your return on fight night.