Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat fight analysis
Introduction
The highly anticipated bantamweight clash between Jean Matsumoto and Farid Basharat headlines the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira, set for Saturday, February 7, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action kicks off at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT (2:00 AM GMT on February 8), when these two talented young contenders step into the Octagon looking to make a statement on one of the most stacked Fight Nights in recent memory.
Farid Basharat arrives as the clear favorite at –235 (American odds, BetOnline.ag), carrying an unblemished 14-0 professional record. Since debuting in the UFC on March 4, 2023, the 28-year-old Paktia, Afghanistan native has showcased world-class grappling, boasting 6 submission victories and a 48% takedown accuracy rate. He’s defended 73% of his opponents’ takedown attempts, absorbed just enough strikes thanks to a 60% significant strike defense, and averaged 13:13 of fight time per outing—proving he can control both position and pace deep into the championship rounds. Recent unanimous decision wins over Taylor Lapilus, Victor Hugo and Chris Gutierrez have solidified his reputation as one of the top rising stars in the bantamweight division.
Opposite him stands Jean Matsumoto, the 25-year-old Muay Thai specialist from the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Listed as the underdog at +200, Matsumoto carries a 17-1 record, including 3 knockouts and 6 submissions—evidence of a well-rounded toolset. A 41% significant strike accuracy and 54% takedown defense complement his sharp Muay Thai arsenal: punishing leg kicks, crisp teeps and punishing clinch knees. Although he suffered a narrow split-decision loss to Rob Font in February 2025, he bounced back emphatically with a split-decision victory over Miles Johns last August, demonstrating improved cardio, strategic adaptability and mental toughness.
This contest represents a pivotal crossroads. A win for Basharat would cement his status as a future top-10 bantamweight, moving him ever closer to a potential showdown with established contenders. For Matsumoto, toppling an undefeated grappler of Basharat’s caliber would catapult him into the conversation for a high-profile matchup against division elites. Fans can expect a fascinating tactical battle: Matsumoto will look to keep the fight standing—using distance management and Muay Thai counters—while Basharat seeks early level changes to drag the Brazilian into deep submission territory.
As the lights shine bright in Las Vegas and the Octagon cage rises center stage, the stakes couldn’t be higher. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each fighter’s strengths, examine key statistical advantages and outline potential pathways to victory for both Jean Matsumoto and Farid Basharat.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Farid Basharat Profile
Age: 28
Country: Afghanistan
Fighting Style: MMA (Wrestling/BJJ base)
Professional Record: 14-0-0
UFC Debut: March 4, 2023
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win vs. Chris Gutierrez – Decision (Unanimous), UFC Fight Night, Oct. 4, 2025
- Win vs. Victor Hugo – Decision (Unanimous), UFC Fight Night, Oct. 26, 2024
- Win vs. Taylor Lapilus – Decision (Unanimous), UFC Fight Night, Jan. 13, 2024
- Win vs. Kleidison Rodrigues – Submission (Arm-Triangle), Sep. 2, 2023
- Win vs. Damon Blackshear – Decision, Mar. 4, 2023
Over his five most recent outings, Basharat has shown elite grappling control and cardio, grinding down opponents over fifteen minutes. He’s yet to be tested in the championship rounds but has displayed a calm, methodical pace, leaning on top control and submissions once takedowns are secured.
Statistical Breakdown
- Significant Strike Accuracy: 52%
- Significant Strike Defense: 60%
- Takedown Accuracy: 48%
- Takedown Defense: 73%
- Average Fight Time: 13:13
Strengths:
- Elite takedown defense (73%) makes him difficult to keep standing.
- Well-rounded grappler: 6 submission wins.
- High striking accuracy for a wrestler, landing over half his attempted power shots.
- Composed fight IQ—rarely rushes, minimizes mistakes.
Weaknesses:
- Low knockout output (1 KO in 14 wins) suggests limited one-punch power.
- Can be out-struck if forced to remain on the feet by a superior striker.
- A longer fight pace might play into Matsumoto’s cardio strengths late.
Jean Matsumoto Profile
Age: 25
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Muay Thai
Professional Record: 17-1-0
UFC Debut: Apr. 6, 2024
Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)
- Win vs. Miles Johns – Decision (Split), UFC Fight Night, Aug. 9, 2025
- Loss vs. Rob Font – Decision (Split), UFC Fight Night, Feb. 22, 2025
- Win vs. Brad Katona – Decision (Unanimous), UFC Fight Night, Oct. 19, 2024
- Win vs. Daniel Argueta – Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Apr. 6, 2024
Matsumoto has alternated between dominant striking performances and slick submission finishes. His only career loss came in a razor-thin split decision against Rob Font, where he showed heart but was out-paced on the feet.
Statistical Breakdown
- Significant Strike Accuracy: 41%
- Significant Strike Defense: 48%
- Takedown Accuracy: 42%
- Takedown Defense: 54%
- Average Fight Time: 14:00
Strengths:
- Diverse finishing arsenal: 3 KOs, 6 submissions.
- Strong Muay Thai base—sharp leg kicks, teeps and clinch work.
- Good endurance, averaging the full three rounds (14:00).
- Unwavering pressure in the pocket forces opponents to react.
Weaknesses:
- Below-average takedown defense (54%) makes him vulnerable to wrestlers.
- Striking defense is a concern (needs to improve the 48% absorption rate).
- Striking output can drop in deep grappling exchanges—longer scrambles favor grapplers.
Comparative Analysis
This matchup is a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic. Basharat’s superior takedown defense (73% vs. 54%) and grappling acumen give him the edge in ground control. Meanwhile, Matsumoto must leverage his Muay Thai precision and cardio to keep the fight upright, capitalizing on his opponent’s relative lack of knockout power. The key questions: Can Matsumoto fend off early level changes? Will Basharat need more than takedowns to secure a stoppage? Their contrasting statistical profiles set the stage for a compelling chess match inside the Octagon.
Odds and Betting Trends
Current Betting Odds
As fight night approaches, Farid Basharat stands as the clear favorite at –235 (American odds) on BetOnline.ag, while Jean Matsumoto is positioned as the underdog at +200. That means you must risk $235 to win $100 backing Basharat, whereas a $100 wager on Matsumoto would yield $200 in profit. The spread between these two fighters reflects the market’s confidence in Basharat’s undefeated grappling prowess and Matsumoto’s long odds as a Muay Thai stylist facing an elite wrestler.
Best Sportsbook to Bet On:
BetOnline.ag currently offers the most competitive lines for this matchup. Both fighters’ odds are consistently updated on this platform, and you’ll find the deepest liquidity and swift line adjustments here compared to other major books.
Line Movement Analysis
Tracking the line movement over the past 24 hours reveals significant swings for both athletes, underscoring sharp money flowing on either side:
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Farid Basharat (–190 → –240 → –235):
• Jan. 26, 18:09 ET: –190
• Jan. 26, 18:19 ET: –205
• Jan. 26, 19:01 ET: –210
• Jan. 26, 20:28 ET: –240 (peak favorite)
• Jan. 27, 08:29 ET: –235 (current)Basharat opened as a moderate favorite at –190, then quickly shortened to –240 by late evening, fueled by early sharp bets and expert projections. A slight pullback to –235 suggests some counteraction from Matsumoto backers, but the consensus remains heavily tilted toward the Afghan wrestler.
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Jean Matsumoto (+165 → +205 → +200):
• Jan. 26, 18:09 ET: +165
• Jan. 26, 18:19 ET: +175
• Jan. 26, 19:01 ET: +180
• Jan. 26, 20:28 ET: +205 (worst underdog position)
• Jan. 27, 08:29 ET: +200 (current)Matsumoto initially garnered respectable +165 odds, only to shift deeper into underdog territory at +205 before settling at +200. That movement signals both hesitation in her backers and confidence from wagers on Basharat. The swing from +165 to +205 marks a notable 40-point move, illustrating how public perception hardened against the Brazilian as more data and expert picks emerged.
Betting Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager:
- Betting $1,000 on Farid Basharat at –235 would return $1,425 (your $1,000 stake plus $425 profit).
- Betting $1,000 on Jean Matsumoto at +200 would return $3,000 (your $1,000 stake plus $2,000 profit).
These payouts reflect the market-implied likelihood of each outcome. Basharat’s odds suggest he’s perceived as significantly more likely to win, while Matsumoto’s return on investment compensates for her uphill battle against a dominant grappler.
Whether you’re a value seeker eyeing the underdog’s upside or a risk-averse bettor siding with an undefeated prospect, understanding these odds, line swings and potential payouts is essential. Keep an eye on BetOnline.ag for any late shifts—especially in the hours leading up to fighter weigh-ins—when sharp money can drive last-minute line moves.
AI Pick: Farid Basharat
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Farid Basharat, or see all the AI picks for Bautista vs Oliveira. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
