Nurmagomedov vs Basharat: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat fight analysis

Event Overview

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira takes center stage on Saturday, February 7, 2026, at the state-of-the-art Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas, NV. The bantamweight showdown between Said Nurmagomedov and Javid Basharat is slated for the Preliminary Card, with the opening bell scheduled to ring at 11:00 PM ET (8:00 PM PT). This is a pivotal scrap early in the evening, setting the tone for what promises to be a night of explosive action.

Fighters on Paper

• Favorite: Javid Basharat
  • Betting Odds: -130 (BetOnline)
  • Professional Record: 14-2-0
  • Highlights: 5 KOs, 6 submissions, 8 first-round finishes, 54% significant strike accuracy, 41% takedown accuracy, 84% takedown defense

• Underdog: Said Nurmagomedov
  • Betting Odds: +110 (BetOnline)
  • Professional Record: 18-5-0
  • Highlights: 4 KOs, 6 submissions, 9 first-round finishes, 49% significant strike accuracy, 15% takedown accuracy, 63% takedown defense

Introduction

As the Octagon doors open at the Meta APEX this February, bantamweight contenders Javid Basharat and Said Nurmagomedov prepare to clash in a high-stakes, quick-strike affair on the preliminary portion of UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira. The contest marks a critical crossroads for both athletes—Basharat aims to rebound after three consecutive setbacks and reclaim momentum, while Nurmagomedov looks to halt a two-fight skid and reestablish himself among the division’s upper echelon.

Despite contrasting trajectories, both fighters bring a wealth of finishing prowess to the cage. At just 29 years old, Basharat has demonstrated a lethal blend of striking and grappling, finishing eight of his 14 career wins in Round 1 and showcasing an impressive 54% accuracy on significant strikes. His versatility extends to the mat, where he converts 41% of his takedown attempts and staunchly defends 84% of those foiled on him. Basharat’s well-rounded résumé and aggressive pace have earned him the slight edge on the betting boards, making him the -130 favorite.

Standing opposite is 33-year-old Said Nurmagomedov, a seasoned campaigner with 23 professional fights under his belt. Nurmagomedov’s finishing instincts are equally sharp—9 of his 18 victories have come inside the opening five minutes, and he mixes four knockouts with six submissions. While his takedown game is less pronounced (15% accuracy), his Octagon IQ and relentless pressure often compensate, as evidenced by his sub-minute submission of Muin Gafurov in October 2023. Nurmagomedov enters as a +110 underdog, banking on his iron chin, durable track record, and ability to grind opponents into deep waters.

Whether Basharat’s dynamic offense or Nurmagomedov’s veteran savvy prevails, this bantamweight bout is poised to steal early showtime. As bettors and fans tune in at 11:00 PM ET, all eyes will be on the opening contingency—an explosive confrontation that could reshape both fighter’s paths in a stacked 2026 bantamweight landscape.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Javid Basharat Profile

Age: 29
Country: Afghanistan (Born in Paktia)
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with heavy emphasis on first-round finishing

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Feb. 22, 2025: Loss – KO/TKO Rd 1 vs. Ricky Simon
• Mar. 2, 2024: Loss – Unanimous Decision vs. Aiemann Zahabi
• Oct. 21, 2023: Loss – Could Not Continue (Injury) Rd 2 vs. Victor Henry
• Jan. 14, 2023: Win – Unanimous Decision vs. Mateus Mendonca
• Sep. 17, 2022: Win – Unanimous Decision vs. Tony Gravely

Basharat enters this bout on a 2–3 run in his last five, having dropped three straight against top-10 foes. Prior to this skid, he showcased two consecutive decision victories, demonstrating improved cardio and control.

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: 8 of his 14 career victories come in Round 1, underlining elite explosiveness.
• Striking Accuracy (54%): Connects on over half of his significant strikes, suggesting pinpoint timing and heavy output.
• Takedown Defense (84%): Exceptional knack for stuffing level changes, stifling opponent grapplers.
• Versatility: Equally comfortable mixing power punches with scrambling for submissions—6 career subs.

Weaknesses

• Durability Under Pressure: Three recent losses include one TKO and one doctor stoppage, hinting at vulnerability when backed up.
• Late-Round Output: His avg. fight time (11:55) indicates he often goes deep, raising questions about gas tank if the early blitz fades.
• Takedown Offense (41%): While respectable, his wrestling isn’t elite; could struggle to dictate where the fight takes place if Nurmagomedov presses forward.

---

Said Nurmagomedov Profile

Age: 33
Country: Russia (Dagestan Republic)
Fighting Style: Pressure-based MMA with strong submission instincts

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jul. 26, 2025: Loss – Unanimous Decision vs. Bryce Mitchell
• Feb. 1, 2025: Loss – Unanimous Decision vs. Vinicius Oliveira
• Oct. 21, 2023: Win – Submission Rd 1 (1:13) vs. Muin Gafurov
• Mar. 11, 2023: Loss – Unanimous Decision vs. Jonathan Martinez
• Dec. 17, 2022: Win – Submission Rd 2 (3:50) vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Nurmagomedov is 2–3 in his last five, alternating wins by early submission with close decision defeats—signaling elite grappling but clear issues in tight striking duels.

Strengths

• Opening-Round Finisher: 9 of 18 wins come in Round 1, leveraging lightning-fast setups and smothering top control.
• Submission Arsenal: Six career subs; adept at chaining guillotines, chokes and armbars off both clinch and scramble.
• Cardio and Pace: Avg. fight time (9:28) reveals he often hunts a quick finish, leaving opponents little time to recover.
• Octagon IQ: veteran savvy allows him to exploit opponent mistakes, especially in wrestling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (15%): Rarely initiates or lands takedowns, potentially playing into Basharat’s preference to strike.
• Significant Strike Defense (56%): Below-average head movement and footwork have led to decision losses when unable to close distance.
• Durability vs. Power: Four career KO wins but also has been hurt in slam exchanges; could struggle under Basharat’s crisp counters.

---

Matchup Analysis:
This bout pits Basharat’s power and precision against Nurmagomedov’s grappling and early-fight urgency. If Basharat can weather the initial rush and enforce a striking range, he’ll capitalize on his superior accuracy and takedown defense. Conversely, Nurmagomedov must survive the first minute, force scrambles, and hunt for a quick choke before the Afghan finishes coalesce. Expect a frenetic opening stanza—control there may decide the fight.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Javid Basharat: –130 (favorite)
• Said Nurmagomedov: +110 (underdog)

As of the latest update from BetOnline.ag, Basharat is favored at –130, while Nurmagomedov carries +110 odds. That gap makes the Afghan competitor the slight favorite, with Nurmagomedov priced as the underdog. For bettors shopping around, BetOnline.ag currently offers the sharpest lines and the deepest liquidity on this bantamweight bout.

Line Movement Overview

Tracking odds shifts can reveal where sharp money and public sentiment land. Here’s how the BetOnline.ag numbers have moved since January 26:

Javid Basharat (–130)

• Jan 26 18:09 ET: –150
• Jan 26 18:19 ET: –115
• Jan 27 00:08 ET: –135
• Jan 27 08:29 ET: –130

Said Nurmagomedov (+110)

• Jan 26 18:09 ET: +130
• Jan 26 18:19 ET: –105
• Jan 27 00:08 ET: +115
• Jan 27 08:29 ET: +110

Key Swings

• Basharat opened as a stronger favorite at –150 before early bets pulled him back to –115. A steady influx of Nurmagomedov money later nudged Basharat back to the mid-130s.
• Nurmagomedov saw his line tumble into underdog territory, even dropping to –105 briefly, indicating sharp backing. He’s now settled at +110, suggesting balanced action on both sides.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

BetOnline.ag stands out for:

• Consistently updated odds and rapid line adjustments
• Competitive juice on both sides of the fight
• User-friendly interface and reliable payouts

Sharp bettors and UFC fans alike will find BetOnline.ag’s market the most responsive leading up to fight night.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you risk $1,000 on:

• Javid Basharat (–130): You’d collect $1,769.23 total (that’s $769.23 in profit).
• Said Nurmagomedov (+110): You’d collect $2,100 total (that’s $1,100 in profit).

Based on current odds, Basharat carries about a 57% chance of victory, while Nurmagomedov sits around 48%. Those percentages reflect the market’s view but leave plenty of room for an upset—especially if Nurmagomedov capitalizes on early grappling or Basharat’s late-round stamina dips.

Whether you lean toward the favorite’s precision striking or the underdog’s relentless submission game, understanding these odds movements and implied probabilities will help you make the most informed wager on this pivotal bantamweight clash.