Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey fight analysis
Get ready for an all-Australian lightweight showdown as rising star Quillan Salkilld takes on veteran Jamie Mullarkey on the main card of UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2. This clash goes down on Sunday, February 1, 2026, at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Olympic Park, NSW, and is set to begin at 02:00 GMT (local time).
Fight Details at a Glance
- Event: UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
- Date & Time: February 1, 2026 • 02:00 GMT
- Venue: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, Australia
- Card Position: Main Card, Lightweight Division
The Favorite: Quillan Salkilld
At just 25 years old, Queensland native Quillan Salkilld has stormed through the UFC’s lightweight ranks with an unblemished 3–0 promotional record and a 10–1 overall ledger. Salkilld boasts:
- Striking Accuracy: 58% significant strike accuracy
- Finishing Ability: 4 KOs, 3 submissions, and 5 first-round stoppages
- Average Fight Time: 8:12 (quick finishes and relentless pressure)
Bookmakers have him installed as a heavy favorite, sitting around –800 to –850 on the American odds board. Since debuting in February 2025, Salkilld has showcased a powerful striking base and flawless takedown defense (100%), making him a tough puzzle for opponents at 155 lbs.
The Underdog: Jamie Mullarkey
On the opposite side of the Octagon stands the experienced 31-year-old Aussie veteran Jamie Mullarkey. With an 18–8 pro record and five UFC appearances, Mullarkey offers:
- Balanced Skill Set: 10 KOs, 3 submissions, and 7 first-round finishes
- Striking Defense: 55% significant strike defense
- Durability: 79% takedown defense, proven cardio over three five-minute rounds
Despite his grit and veteran savvy, Mullarkey is an underdog at +500 to +575, reflecting the uphill battle he faces against Salkilld’s power and precision. Nevertheless, his ability to weather storms and land heavy counter-shots makes him a dangerous foe capable of spoiling the young phenom’s perfect UFC run.
Why You Can’t Miss It
This matchup promises high-octane action as two Australian standouts collide on home soil. Will Salkilld’s rising momentum and lightning-fast finishes continue, or can Mullarkey’s experience and brawling style pull off a monumental upset? Tune in to UFC 325 to witness a defining chapter in both fighters’ lightweight journeys.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 can be found on the Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 event page.
Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles
As two Australian lightweights prepare to clash at UFC 325, let’s dive into their backgrounds, recent form, and the stats-driven strengths and weaknesses that will shape this pivotal contest.
Quillan Salkilld Profile
- Age: 25
- Country: Australia (Pinjarra, WA)
- Fighting Style: MMA—well-rounded with a striking emphasis
- UFC Debut: Feb. 8, 2025
Recent Form (3–0 in UFC)
- Win vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Oct. 25, 2025) • KO/TKO R1 (2:30)
- Win vs. Yanal Ashmouz (June 7, 2025) • Decision – Unanimous
- Win vs. Anshul Jubli (Feb. 8, 2025) • KO/TKO R1 (0:19)
Strengths
- Elite Striking Accuracy (58%): Salkilld lands nearly 6 out of every 10 significant strikes, pressuring opponents with pinpoint combinations.
- Finishing Instincts: With 4 KOs and 3 submissions in 10 wins—and 5 first-round stoppages—he overwhelms foes early.
- Takedown Defense (100%): He’s never been taken down in UFC competition, forcing fights to stay upright where his precision shines.
- Youth & Pace: At 25, his gas tank carries a relentless forward march, averaging just 8:12 per outing.
Weaknesses
- Strike Defense (44%): He absorbs over half of opponents’ significant attempts, leaving him susceptible to counters.
- Wrestling Offense (35% TD Accuracy): Moderate takedown success suggests he may struggle to change levels against strong grapplers.
Jamie Mullarkey Profile
- Age: 31
- Country: Australia (Gosford, NSW)
- Fighting Style: Freestyle striker with opportunistic grappling
- UFC Debut: Oct. 5, 2019
Recent Form (2–3 in Last 5)
- Win vs. Rolando Bedoya (Sept. 27, 2025) • Decision – Unanimous
- Loss vs. Mauricio Ruffy (May 4, 2024) • KO/TKO R1 (4:42)
- Loss vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Dec. 9, 2023) • KO/TKO R1 (1:44)
- Win vs. John Makdessi (Sept. 9, 2023) • Decision – Unanimous
- Loss vs. Muhammad Naimov (June 3, 2023) • KO/TKO R2 (2:59)
Strengths
- Durable Chin & Defense: 55% significant strike defense and 79% takedown defense reflect his ability to minimize damage and stay upright.
- Balanced Offense: 10 KOs and 3 submissions showcase versatility—he can brawl on the feet or threaten on the ground.
- Experience & Cardio: With nearly 10 minutes average fight time and five UFC outings, he’s battle-tested in three-round wars.
Weaknesses
- Inconsistent Finishing: Only 7 first-round finishes in 18 wins; his power can be neutralized by elite strikers.
- Strike Accuracy (47%): Below-average precision may lead to wasted energy and leave openings against a counter-puncher like Salkilld.
- Questionable Chin: Three KO losses in his last five bouts hint at vulnerability when pressured by heavy hitters.
Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis
This bout pits Salkilld’s youth-driven precision and finishing blitz against Mullarkey’s veteran resilience and well-rounded toolkit. Expect Salkilld to dictate distance with crisp jabs and leg kicks, while Mullarkey will look for counter-strikes and takedown opportunities to slow the pace. Salkilld’s perfect takedown defense forces Mullarkey to rely on stand-up exchanges, where his 31-year-old durability will be tested by the newcomer’s relentless offense. In grappling, Mullarkey must mix levels effectively—his 30% TD accuracy against Salkilld’s flawless defense will be a critical battleground. This clash of styles—precision vs. experience—promises fireworks under the Sydney lights.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
As fight night approaches, the betting market has firmly installed Quillan Salkilld as the heavy favorite while Jamie Mullarkey remains the underdog. Below is a comprehensive look at the current odds, their recent movement, the best sportsbook to lock in your wager, and what a $1,000 bet would yield on either fighter.
Current Odds Snapshot
- Quillan Salkilld
- FanDuel: -850
- BetOnline.ag: -800
- Jamie Mullarkey
- FanDuel: +500
- BetOnline.ag: +575
With Salkilld priced between –800 and –850, he holds an implied win probability of roughly 88–89%, while Mullarkey’s +500 to +575 line implies about a 15–17% chance to pull off the upset.
Underdog vs. Favorite
- Favorite (Salkilld): A dominant 10–1 pro record and flawless 100% takedown defense has sportsbooks moving his line deeper into favorite territory.
- Underdog (Mullarkey): Despite a proven chin and veteran savvy, his inconsistency in recent fights pushes him to +500 or higher, making him a long shot on most boards.
Line Movement & Market Action
- Salkilld
- FanDuel: Moved from –770 → –850
- BetOnline.ag: Moved from –700 → –800
- Interpretation: Heavy early money on Salkilld drove his line shorter, signaling strong bettor confidence in his striking and finishing power.
- Mullarkey
- FanDuel: Drifted from +470 → +500
- BetOnline.ag: Drifted from +525 → +575
- Interpretation: Slim action on Mullarkey has lengthened his line, suggesting bettors view him as a significant underdog against the rising prospect.
The most pronounced swing is on FanDuel, where Salkilld went from –770 to –850, a sizable 80-cent shift in two days. Mullarkey’s biggest drift was +50 cents on BetOnline.ag, reflecting muted support for the veteran.
Best Sportsbook to Bet On
- For Quillan Salkilld, BetOnline.ag’s –800 line is superior to FanDuel’s –850, minimizing the risk needed to win $100.
- For Jamie Mullarkey, BetOnline.ag’s +575 offers the highest return on a long-shot wager.
Overall, BetOnline.ag presents the most attractive odds for both camps.
Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payouts
- $1,000 on Salkilld at –800
- Total Return: $1,125 (including $125 profit)
- Implied Win Probability: ~89%
- $1,000 on Mullarkey at +575
- Total Return: $6,750 (including $5,750 profit)
- Implied Win Probability: ~15%
Whether you’re laying heavy juice on the favorite or chasing the high-risk, high-reward underdog, these payouts underscore the stark contrast between the two fighters’ market valuations.
Key Takeaways
- Sharp Action on Salkilld: Strong money has pushed his odds deeper into blowout territory.
- Underdog Drift: Mullarkey’s line is sliding, reflecting low confidence but high upside.
- Best Value at BetOnline.ag: Get the juiciest lines on both sides.
- Risk vs. Reward: A $1,000 wager on Mullarkey could transform into a life-changing payout, while a safe $1,000 on Salkilld locks in near-certainty profits.
Use this odds breakdown to inform your pick and maximize your potential return on fight night. Good luck!
AI Pick: Quillan Salkilld
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Quillan Salkilld, or see all the AI picks for Volkanovski vs Lopes 2. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
