Almeida vs Kuniev UFC Fight Analysis & Betting Odds

Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

The much-anticipated heavyweight clash between Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev is set to light up the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of the main card of UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira. Scheduled for Saturday, February 7, 2026, the main card officially kicks off at 10:00 PM ET (7:00 PM PT), with Almeida vs Kuniev slated to hit the Octagon shortly thereafter. This non-title bout pits the streaking Brazilian grappler against the surging Russian striker, delivering a classic stylistic showdown that fans and bettors alike have circled on their calendars.

Venue & Date

• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Event: UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira
• Date & Time: Saturday, February 7, 2026 – Main Card begins at 10:00 PM ET (7:00 PM PT)
• Card Placement: Main Card (following the prelims and the opening bout of the main show)

The UFC Apex has become a hotbed for high-octane matchups, and this heavyweight showdown promises fireworks under the bright lights of the Octagon. Whether you’re attending in person or tuning in via pay-per-view, Almeida vs Kuniev represents a clash between two of the division’s most dynamic prospects.

Betting Odds & The Favorite

According to BetOnline.ag and DraftKings, Jailton Almeida enters as the favorite, with American-style odds of –140 (BetOnline) and –142 (DraftKings). His superior grappling pedigree, relentless top-game pressure and blistering submission arsenal make him a daunting test for any heavyweight challenger. Almeida’s UFC resume (22-4-0) includes 13 submission victories and 16 first-round finishes, cementing his reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous ground specialists.

On the opposite side, Rizvan Kuniev is the underdog, listed at +120 on both major North American sportsbooks. The Russian newcomer holds a 12-3-1 professional record, boasting six knockouts and a 75% takedown accuracy. Kuniev’s combination of power striking and opportunistic wrestling has earned him a rapid ascent through the heavyweight ranks since his UFC debut in February 2025. His sole UFC appearance—a hard-fought split decision loss to Curtis Blaydes—showcased his toughness and ring IQ against world-class opposition.

Why This Fight Matters

• Stylistic Contrast: Almeida’s world-class grappling versus Kuniev’s striking pedigree.
• Divisional Implications: A win for Almeida keeps him on trajectory toward a Top 5 ranking; a victory for Kuniev would catapult him into serious title contention discussions.
• Betting Value: Almeida’s odds opened as the favorite, but Kuniev’s downward odds trend suggests sharp money is coming in on the Russian’s upset potential.

As fight night approaches, bettors and analysts will pore over striking statistics, takedown defense percentages and recent form. Almeida’s 66% significant strike accuracy and 63% takedown success rate clash with Kuniev’s 58% striking efficiency and 90% takedown defense, setting the stage for a chess match that could end anywhere from a first-round submission to a late-round stoppage.

Stay tuned for a full fight breakdown—complete with technique analysis, matchup strengths and expert picks—to help you make the most informed wager on this high-stakes heavyweight duel.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Bautista vs Oliveira can be found on the Bautista vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup Analysis and Fighter Profiles

Jailton Almeida: The Brazilian Grappling Specialist

Age: 34 • Country: Brazil • Fighting Style: Wrestler
Height: 75 in • Reach: 79 in • Record: 22-4-0 (UFC #6 seeded)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Oct. 25, 2025: Split-decision loss to Alexander Volkov (UFC Fight Night)
• Jan. 18, 2025: TKO win over Serghei Spivac (Round 1, 4:53)
• Jun. 1, 2024: Submission win over Alexandr Romanov (Round 1, 2:27)
• Mar. 9, 2024: KO/TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes (Round 2, 0:36)
• Nov. 4, 2023: Unanimous-decision win over Derrick Lewis (5 rounds)

Strengths

• Elite Grappling: 63% takedown accuracy and 60% takedown defense, combined with 13 submission victories, make Almeida a constant threat once the fight hits the mat.
• Finishing Instinct: Sixteen first-round finishes and a swift 7:35 average fight time show his ability to close out opponents quickly.
• Striking Efficiency: A 66% significant-strike accuracy gives him the edge in short-range exchanges when he elects to stand and trade.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: His 36% significant-strike defense indicates vulnerability in striking exchanges, especially early before takedown entries.
• Heavy Hitters: KO losses to Blaydes and Volkov expose potential susceptibility to high-caliber power strikers.

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Rizvan Kuniev: The Russian Powerhouse

Age: 33 • Country: Russia • Fighting Style: Versatile Striker/Wrestler
Height: 76 in • Reach: 76 in • Record: 12-3-1

Recent Form (Key Highlights)

• Jun. 21, 2025: Split-decision loss to Curtis Blaydes (UFC debut)
• Prior to UFC: Four straight wins (3 KOs, 1 Submission) in regional circuits
• Overall: Six knockouts, two submissions, four first-round finishes demonstrate finishing ability

Strengths

• Striking Power & Accuracy: Boasts a 58% significant-strike accuracy with six career knockouts, making his strikes count.
• Takedown Defense: An elite 90% takedown-defense rate negates many wrestlers’ attempts, forcing opponents into prolonged striking battles.
• Durability & Cardio: A 10:20 average fight time and only one stoppage loss showcase his ability to withstand pressure deep into fights.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Offense: With just a 75% takedown accuracy and only two submission victories, Kuniev may struggle against top-level wrestlers who can mix levels.
• Elite Competition: His only UFC appearance ended in a loss, raising questions about adjustments against high-caliber opponents.

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Styles Clash & Keys to Victory

• Almeida’s Roadmap: Close distance early, secure takedowns and establish top control. Mix overhand rights with level changes and hunt submissions to exploit Kuniev’s lower grappling output.
• Kuniev’s Blueprint: Keep the fight standing, utilize jab-kick combinations to maintain range, and defend takedowns at the fence. Capitalize on striking exchanges where his power can deter Almeida’s entries.
• Statistical Edge: Almeida owns the grappling metrics (63% TD accuracy vs. 75% defense; 13 subs vs. 2 subs), while Kuniev holds the striking durability edge (90% TD defense; longer avg. fight time).

This heavyweight showdown boils down to grappling versus striking, with Almeida aiming to drag the bout to the mat and Kuniev striving to keep it upright. Bettors should weigh Almeida’s submission pedigree against Kuniev’s takedown defense and knockout power when assessing value.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Jailton Almeida: –140 (BetOnline.ag), –142 (DraftKings)
• Rizvan Kuniev: +120 (BetOnline.ag), +120 (DraftKings)

As it stands, Jailton Almeida is the clear favorite across major U.S. sportsbooks, while Rizvan Kuniev sits firmly in the underdog role. The difference in odds reflects how Almeida’s proven grappling pedigree and top-five divisional ranking have inspired greater confidence among bettors. Kuniev’s +120 line still offers solid value, however, as his elite takedown defense (90%) and knockout power can pose serious problems for any grappler.

Best Sportsbook to Use

• For betting Almeida, BetOnline.ag currently posts the slightly better line (–140 vs. –142 at DraftKings).
• For betting Kuniev, both BetOnline.ag and DraftKings are dead-even at +120, so your choice can depend on deposit bonuses, user interface or live-in-play features.

Line Movement & Key Swings

Tracking the odds history provides insight into where sharp money has shifted. Below are the most significant swings from BetOnline.ag:

• Jan. 26 (18:09 ET): Almeida opened at –160; Kuniev began at +140.
• Jan. 29 (12:40 ET): Almeida peaked as a heavy favorite at –220, while Kuniev rose to +185.
• Feb. 1 (02:40 ET): Sharp adjustment saw Almeida dip to –135 and Kuniev tighten dramatically to +115.
• Feb. 1 (07:49 ET): The market cooled off, settling on –140 for Almeida and +120 for Kuniev.

These swings suggest early money was heavy on Almeida, then some contrarian action backed Kuniev as his line ticked down. Late adjustments pushed both lines back toward their current numbers as the betting window closed.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager on either fighter right now:

• Bet $1,000 on Almeida at –140: You would win $714.29 in profit, for a total return of $1,714.29 (your stake plus winnings).
• Bet $1,000 on Kuniev at +120: You would win $1,200 in profit, for a total return of $2,200 (your stake plus winnings).

Implied Probabilities (no deep math explanation, but reflecting market sentiment):

• Almeida (–140): Roughly a 58% chance to win.
• Kuniev (+120): Roughly a 45% chance to win.

What This Means for Bettors

• Value Play on Kuniev? Despite being the underdog, Kuniev’s +120 line has crept lower during peak public action. If you believe his wrestling defense and striking power can neutralize Almeida’s top game, this is the spot to strike.
• Lean on Almeida’s Grappling: Almeida’s odds softened slightly from their most lopsided point (–220), suggesting books are balancing money from both sides. His takedown accuracy (63%) and submission résumé justify his under-60% implied probability.

Monitoring live odds on BetOnline.ag and DraftKings as fight night approaches will help you spot last-minute shifts—especially if significant public or sharp money comes in on either side. In a heavyweight bout where styles collide, these line movements could be the difference between a savvy winning wager and missing out on prime value.