Winner: Shem Rock
Confidence Score: 65Shem Rock holds significant advantages in grappling and physical attributes. He has a 4-inch arm reach and 4.5-inch leg reach advantage, which historically in the lightweight division gives a measurable edge in striking exchanges and defensive grappling. His takedown defense is outstanding at 80%, which is critical against opponents with lower takedown accuracy like Al Selwady (31%). Shem Rock's primary finishing method is submission (9 wins), and Al Selwady has shown vulnerability on the ground, with a low takedown defense (20%) and only 2 submission wins. While Al Selwady has more knockouts, Shem Rock absorbs less damage (56% strike defense vs. 59%) and is more accurate with his significant strikes (42% vs. 35%). Both fighters are coming off a loss, but Shem Rock's size, defensive metrics, and grappling threat are likely to be the difference-maker, especially since fighters with similar profiles to Rock have won the majority of recent comparable matchups at lightweight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Evloev vs Murphy can be found on the Evloev vs Murphy event page.
