Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson UFC Odds & Analysis

Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson Fight Analysis

Introduction

On February 28, 2026, fight fans will be treated to an electrifying women’s bantamweight clash on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh, held at the Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. As the octagon lights shine on one of the most dynamic divisions in women’s MMA, two formidable strikers—Ailin Perez and Macy Chiasson—will lock horns in a pivotal showdown that could reshape the division standings and propel the victor toward a top-five ranking.

Fight Details

• Date & Time: February 28, 2026 | 10:00 PM UTC (Local time in CDMX)
• Venue: Arena CDMX, México D.F., CDMX, Mexico
• Division: Women’s Bantamweight (135 lbs)
• Card Placement: Preliminary Card (under UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh)

With both athletes coming off impressive winning streaks and eyeing a breakthrough performance, this matchup promises high-level striking exchanges, grappling scrambles, and strategic warfare. Notably, Ailin Perez enters this bout as the betting favorite across leading sportsbooks, while Macy Chiasson will look to capitalize on her power and resilience as the underdog.

Betting Outlook

According to the latest odds compiled on February 16, 2026, Ailin Perez holds the advantage on the moneyline at approximately -165 (BetRivers, DraftKings, BetUS, BetOnline.ag), implying that bettors must wager $165 to win $100 on Perez. In contrast, Macy Chiasson sits at around +134 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 wager on Chiasson would yield $134 in profit—cementing her role as the underdog.

• Favorite: Ailin Perez (–165)
• Underdog: Macy Chiasson (+134)

This disparity reflects Perez’s superior striking accuracy (55% significant strike accuracy), takedown success (47% accuracy), and unbeaten run of five consecutive victories, while Chiasson brings knockout power, grappling prowess, and a desire to rebound after two close decision losses in her last two outings.

What’s At Stake

A victory for Ailin Perez would bolster her climb toward the elite tier of the women’s bantamweight division, potentially moving her inside the top five and setting up a high-profile matchup against a contender like Ketlen Vieira or Yana Santos. Conversely, an upset win for Macy Chiasson could revitalize her career trajectory, snapping her two-fight skid and establishing her as a dark-horse threat, given her 46% striking defense and 73% takedown defense metrics.

In the following sections, we will delve deeper into each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, recent form, key statistics, and strategic game plans. Whether you’re analyzing this as a bettor, die-hard fan, or casual viewer, this breakdown will provide invaluable insights into what to expect when the octagon door closes in Mexico City.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Ailin Perez

Age: 31
Country: Argentina (CABA)
Fighting Style: Kung Fu
Record: 12-2-0 (4 KOs, 2 Submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jan. 18, 2025: •Win• (Unanimous Decision) vs. Karol Rosa
• Sept. 28, 2024: •Win• (Submission, R1 – 3:52) vs. Daria Zheleznyakova
• June 1, 2024: •Win• (Unanimous Decision) vs. Joselyne Edwards
• Nov. 18, 2023: •Win• (Unanimous Decision) vs. Lucie Pudilova
• July 15, 2023: •Win• (Unanimous Decision) vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith

Ailin Perez has surged through the bantamweight ranks with an unblemished five-fight winning streak, showcasing a versatile arsenal rooted in her traditional Kung Fu background. Her combination of fluid footwork and pinpoint striking has neutralized athletes with longer reach, allowing her to control distance and dictate the pace.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (55%): Top-tier precision, landing more than half of her significant strikes.
• Takedown Offense (47%): Solid wrestling entries, often mixing level changes with strikes.
• Durability & Stamina: Average fight time of 12:18 demonstrates her ability to sustain output deep into the third round.
• First-Round Finishes: Four first-round stoppages signal dangerous opening bursts.

Weaknesses

• Reach Disadvantage (6" shorter wingspan): Vulnerable to fighters who keep her at the end of their jab.
• Takedown Defense (67%): While respectable, Chiasson’s offensive wrestling prowess could exploit gaps.

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Macy Chiasson

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: MMA (Strike-Wrestling Hybrid)
Record: 11-5-0 (4 KOs, 3 Submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Oct. 4, 2025: •Loss• (Unanimous Decision) vs. Yana Santos
• May 31, 2025: •Loss• (Unanimous Decision) vs. Ketlen Vieira
• June 29, 2024: •Win• (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, R2 – 1:58) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
• Mar. 16, 2024: •Win• (Submission, R1 – 3:54) vs. Pannie Kianzad
• Sept. 10, 2022: •Loss• (KO/TKO, R3 – 2:21) vs. Irene Aldana

Macy Chiasson arrives seeking to halt a two-fight skid marked by narrow decision defeats. Her power—evident in three first-round finishes—and wrestling pedigree make her a constant threat against opponents who underestimate her grappling.

Strengths

• Reach & Height Advantage: Standing 71" with a 72" reach, she can out-jab many bantamweights and control range.
• Takedown Defense (73%): Strong sprawl rate keeps her upright against wrestlers.
• Finishing Instincts: Seven career stoppages in 11 wins, with three first-round finishes indicating fast starts.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (46%): Below-average head movement and guard discipline, leaving her open to precise counters.
• Takedown Offense (37%): Less efficient wrestling initiations could be negated by elite scramble artists.
• Average Fight Time (10:36): Early finishes suggest potential gas tank issues in deeper waters.

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Head-to-Head Outlook

This clash pits Perez’s surgical striking and takedown mix against Chiasson’s physicality, reach, and finishing power. Perez must close the distance, avoid Chiasson’s long jab, and capitalize on clinch exchanges. Conversely, Chiasson needs to keep the fight linear, land heavy shots early, and exploit Perez’s reach deficit. The victor will be the fighter who best enforces her game plan while minimizing the opponent’s strengths.

Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of February 16, 2026, the moneyline across major sportsbooks stands in favor of Ailin Perez:

• Ailin Perez: –165 (BetRivers), –162 (DraftKings), –160 (BetUS, BetOnline.ag)
• Macy Chiasson: +134 (BetUS), +136 (DraftKings), +132 (BetRivers), +140 (BetOnline.ag)

• Favorite: Ailin Perez (–165)
• Underdog: Macy Chiasson (+140)

The gap of roughly 300 points on the American line underscores Perez’s status as the betting favorite. For bettors seeking maximum value on the underdog, BetOnline.ag currently offers the best payout at +140, while BetUS and BetOnline.ag both share the shortest juice for Perez at –160.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Reviewing the odds history reveals notable shifts over the past week:

• Perez (BetOnline.ag):
  • Feb 12: –135 → –133 → Feb 13: –135 → –145 → Feb 16: –160
• Chiasson (BetOnline.ag):
  • Feb 12: +115 → +113 → Feb 13: +115 → +125 → Feb 16: +140

Key takeaways:

• Perez’s line has moved 30 cents toward the favorite (–135 to –165), suggesting significant early money backing her.
• Chiasson’s line has drifted from +115 to +140, indicating bookmakers are lengthening her odds to balance action.
• The biggest swing occurred on February 16, as late bettors poured money onto Perez, pushing Chiasson’s price higher.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• For Ailin Perez: BetUS or BetOnline.ag at –160 offers the lowest vig and thus the best payout margin.
• For Macy Chiasson: BetOnline.ag at +140 yields the highest return on an underdog wager.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you staked $1,000:

• Betting on Ailin Perez at –160
  – Profit: $625
  – Total Return: $1,625

• Betting on Macy Chiasson at +140
  – Profit: $1,400
  – Total Return: $2,400

Based on these lines, the implied probability of victory is roughly 62% for Perez and 42% for Chiasson. While Perez is the clear favorite, Chiasson’s longer odds translate into a compelling risk-reward ratio if you believe she can exploit her reach and finishing power.

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Whether you’re playing the favorite’s superior technical striking or backing the underdog’s upset potential, knowing where lines have moved—and where value sits—is crucial. With Perez’s odds shortening and Chiasson’s lengthening, now is the time to lock in the best price before the lines tighten further as fight night approaches.