Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano: UFC Odds & Analysis

Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano fight analysis

When: Saturday, February 21, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Where: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Event: UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez – Preliminary Card

Introduction

The welterweight showdown between Ramiz Brahimaj and Punahele Soriano opens the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, February 21, 2026, at the Toyota Center in Houston. Scheduled for three 5-minute rounds, this clash pits two seasoned 32-year-olds with contrasting styles and profiles. Brahimaj, making his fifth appearance of the year, enters as the odds-on favorite across every major sportsbook, while Soriano—despite his explosive power and impressive finishing rate—will fight in the role of the underdog. Fight fans and bettors alike will tune in to see whether Brahimaj’s dominant grappling can neutralize Soriano’s knockout arsenal, or if Soriano can land the big shot that changes the trajectory of this pivotal UFC welterweight matchup.

Betting Odds & Favorites

• Ramiz Brahimaj (–135 to –140)
  As of February 14, Brahimaj sits firmly on the favored side of the moneyline. BetOnline, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada and BetUS all list Brahimaj between –130 and –140, reflecting the market’s confidence in his elite submission game and superior ground control.
• Punahele Soriano (+110 to +118)
  Soriano enters as the plus-money underdog, with odds averaging +114 across top books. His 7 KO victories and 8 first-round finishes make him an alluring upset play for bettors seeking underdog value.

Why This Fight Matters

• Stylistic Contrast: Brahimaj (13–5–0) is a submission specialist with 12 career tap-outs, averaging a 07:32 fight time and a 48% takedown defense rate. Soriano (12–4–0) counters with 55% significant strike accuracy and raw knockout power that’s ended 58% of his wins inside the distance.
• Career Trajectories: A win for Brahimaj cements his ascent in the deep welterweight division, positioning him for potential top-15 contention. Soriano, coming off two unanimous decision victories and a highlight KO over Uros Medic in January 2025, looks to rebound from back-to-back losses at 170 lb and reestablish himself on the UFC map.
• Local Impact & Venue: The Toyota Center, a state-of-the-art arena in downtown Houston, brings a passionate Texas crowd hungry for early fireworks. As part of the Strickland vs Hernandez fight night, this undercard bout carries heightened attention from both live attendees and the global UFC audience streaming on ESPN+.

This Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano opener promises high-level wrestling exchanges, sudden submission attempts, and the ever-present threat of a one-punch knockout. With Brahimaj’s ground prowess favored on paper and Soriano’s striking upside lurking, the stage is set for an adrenaline-packed welterweight battle that could define each man’s path in the UFC. Good luck to all bettors—may the sharpest analysis prevail.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Strickland vs Hernandez can be found on the Strickland vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Ramiz Brahimaj Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States (Bronx, NY)
Fighting Style: MMA grappler with elite submission pedigree

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs Austin Vanderford (Submission, R2 – 2:24) – Oct. 4, 2025
• Win vs Billy Goff (Submission, R1 – 3:16) – May 31, 2025
• Win vs Mickey Gall (KO/TKO, R1 – 2:55) – Nov. 16, 2024
• Loss vs Themba Gorimbo (Decision – Unanimous, 3 Rounds) – May 18, 2024
• Win vs Micheal Gillmore (Submission, R1 – 2:02) – Feb. 26, 2022

Ramiz Brahimaj has rattled off three straight victories since his lone decision loss in mid-2024. His ground game remains his calling card, amassing 12 submissions in 13 career wins. Brahimaj boasts a blistering rate of 11 first-round finishes, with an average fight time of just 07:32.

Strengths

• Submission Expertise: Secured 12 tap-outs, demonstrating top-tier Brazilian jiu-jitsu transitions and relentless top control.
• Takedown Defense (48%): Nearly half of opponents’ takedown attempts are thwarted, helping him dictate where the fight goes.
• Early Finisher: 11 of his 13 wins end before Round 2, pressuring foes to survive the early grappling storm.

Weaknesses

• Striking Efficiency: At 47% significant strike accuracy, he lacks the power and precision to consistently keep strikers at bay.
• Takedown Offense (39%): Below-average takedown success means he can struggle to impose his grappling on high-level wrestlers.
• Striking Defense (45%): Concedes over half of incoming significant strikes, making him vulnerable to explosive strikers if the fight stays standing.

---

Punahele Soriano Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Power striker with solid wrestling foundation

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs Nikolay Veretennikov (Decision – Unanimous, 3 Rounds) – Oct. 4, 2025
• Win vs Uros Medic (KO/TKO, R1 – 0:31) – Jan. 11, 2025
• Win vs Miguel Baeza (Decision – Unanimous, 3 Rounds) – Jun. 8, 2024
• Loss vs Dustin Stoltzfus (Submission, R2 – 4:10) – Dec. 2, 2023
• Loss vs Roman Kopylov (KO/TKO, R2 – 3:19) – Jan. 14, 2023

Soriano has bounced back from two defeats by reeling off three victories—demonstrating growth in durability and fight IQ. His 7 knockouts account for more than half his wins, and 8 first-round finishes underscore his one-punch knockout power.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (55%): Lands more than half of his significant strikes, making his punches both efficient and dangerous.
• Takedown Offense (48%): Nearly one in two takedown attempts succeeds, giving him the ability to mix in wrestling and change levels.
• Power Finisher: Boasts 58% KO/TKO rate, capable of ending fights abruptly with a single shot.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (40%): Allows 60% of opponents’ takedown attempts, a red flag against elite grapplers like Brahimaj.
• Striking Defense (48%): Absorbs almost half of incoming significant strikes, which could play into Brahimaj’s ground-and-pound game if he closes the distance.
• Average Fight Time (09:41): Longer fights expose him to grappling attrition and submission attempts later in rounds.

---

Stylistic Contrast & Key Takeaways

• Grappler vs. Power Striker: Brahimaj will look to drag Soriano to the mat, employ top control, and hunt submissions. Soriano’s task is to keep the fight upright, utilize his 55% strike accuracy, and land big shots early.
• Cardio & Pace: Brahimaj’s high‐pace ground transitions in early rounds could sap Soriano’s power. Conversely, Soriano’s cumulative striking volume and takedown ability could wear on Brahimaj if he can mix levels effectively.

This matchup hinges on whether Brahimaj’s wrestling advantages can neutralize Soriano’s knockout threat, or if Soriano can exploit Brahimaj’s striking vulnerabilities to secure a highlight‐reel finish.

Betting Odds & Odds History

Current Moneyline Odds

• Ramiz Brahimaj: –130 to –140

  • BetOnline.ag: –130 (best available)
  • Caesars: –140
  • DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada, BetUS: –130 to –135

• Punahele Soriano: +110 to +118

  • Caesars: +118 (best available)
  • DraftKings: +114
  • BetOnline.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada: +110 to +112

Favorite: Ramiz Brahimaj (minus odds)
Underdog: Punahele Soriano (plus odds)

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• To back Brahimaj, BetOnline.ag (–130) gives you the smallest juice and highest potential return on a favorite.
• To back Soriano, Caesars (+118) offers the juiciest underdog line on the board.

Line Movement & Major Swings

Ramiz Brahimaj

• Feb. 6: Opened at +146 on BetOnline.ag, implying underdog status.
• Feb. 7–9: Line shifted through +125 → +105 → –110 as bettors surged on Brahimaj’s grappling edge.
• Feb. 12–14: Settled at –130 on BetOnline.ag (–135 on other books), cementing his role as the consensus favorite.

Punahele Soriano

• Feb. 6: Opened at –171 on BetOnline.ag, heavily favored.
• Feb. 8–9: Odds climbed from –135 to even money and then into plus territory (+100), as market confidence swung toward Brahimaj.
• Feb. 12–14: Currently +110 to +118, flipping him to underdog across all major sportsbooks.

These swings—from Brahimaj opening as an underdog to becoming a solid favorite, and Soriano shifting from heavy favorite to underdog—highlight a strong betting consensus around Brahimaj’s skill set and recent form.

Potential Payout & Implied Probabilities

• If you bet $1,000 on Ramiz Brahimaj at –130:
  • Potential profit of $769 (payout of $1,769).
  • Implied win probability: ~57%.

• If you bet $1,000 on Punahele Soriano at +118:
  • Potential profit of $1,180 (payout of $2,180).
  • Implied win probability: ~46%.

Key Takeaways

• Sharp Money on Brahimaj: Early line movement indicates professional bettors identify his grappling as a decisive factor.
• Value on Soriano: Despite underdog status, Soriano’s best plus-money line at Caesars (+118) represents underdog value for those banking on his one-punch power.
• Market Efficiency: The drastic flip in odds—Brahimaj from +146 to –130, Soriano from –171 to +118—demonstrates heavy line action and evolving public perception over two weeks.

Whether you back the minus-money favorite or grab the plus-money underdog, understanding where the line began and where it stands now is critical. For maximum value, consider BetOnline.ag for Brahimaj and Caesars for Soriano. Good luck, and may your bankroll come out on top.