Winner: Joshua Van
Confidence Score: 68Joshua Van holds significant advantages in both wrestling and defensive metrics that are highly relevant in this flyweight title matchup. His takedown accuracy (64%) and takedown defense (81%) are well above division averages and notably superior to Tatsuro Taira's takedown defense (45%) and accuracy (47%). Van's ability to stuff takedowns and maintain control on the feet is a major factor against Taira, who relies on grappling and submissions. While Taira has an edge in submission wins and a slightly higher significant strike accuracy (60% vs. 57%), Van's striking defense (58%) and higher volume of KO wins (8) suggest he is more durable and effective in prolonged exchanges. Additionally, Van is younger, has proven five-round stamina with a longer average fight time, and has recently defeated similar high-level opposition, showing strong form. Historically, fighters with Van's profile (high takedown defense, freestyle striking, and youth) have a winning edge in title fights against grapplers with weaker takedown defense. While Taira is dangerous early, Van's defensive wrestling and striking output should allow him to dictate the pace and avoid the ground, leading to a likely decision or late stoppage win.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Prochazka vs Ulberg can be found on the Prochazka vs Ulberg event page.
