Winner: Azamat Murzakanov
Confidence Score: 68Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated at 16-0 with a high knockout rate (12 KOs, 10 first-round finishes) and a significantly better average fight time (7:51 vs. Costa's 12:46), indicating superior finishing ability. His significant strike defense (61%) and takedown defense (88%) are both higher than Paulo Costa's (49% and 80%, respectively), which is critical against a power striker like Costa. Murzakanov also absorbs less damage and has shown strong resilience and fight IQ, while Costa has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, all by decision, suggesting a decline in his ability to impose his style at a high level. Historically, undefeated fighters with high KO rates and strong defensive stats in the light heavyweight division have a high win rate against older, volume-based strikers who are coming off losses. While Costa is dangerous and can land big shots, Murzakanov's durability, power, and defensive edge make him the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Prochazka vs Ulberg can be found on the Prochazka vs Ulberg event page.
