Tarin vs Kareckaite: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite Fight Analysis

Introduction

Get ready for an electrifying preliminary showdown on Saturday, February 28, 2026, when Regina Tarin makes her UFC debut against seasoned contender Ernesta Kareckaite. This catchweight bout is set to open the card at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh, live from Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. The action kicks off at 22:00 UTC, bringing together fans in the heart of CDMX and viewers worldwide for an early evening dose of flyweight excitement.

Ernesta Kareckaite enters as the clear betting favorite, trading around –170 across top sportsbooks such as DraftKings, BetUS, and Caesars. The 26-year-old Lithuanian brings a professional record of 6–1–1 into the Octagon, showcasing a well-rounded skill set highlighted by a 42% significant striking accuracy and an impressive 67% takedown success rate. With two first-round finishes and a track record of high-pace, three-round wars, Kareckaite is expected to push the pace and test the UFC newcomer on the feet and in grappling exchanges.

On the opposite side of the odds board sits Mexico’s own Regina Tarin, a 21-year-old prospect making her first appearance under the UFC banner. Pushing +142 to +155 in the American odds formats, Tarin is the underdog with everything to prove. Although her professional record in MMA remains blank in the UFC annals, she arrives with regional credentials and the backing of a hometown crowd hungry for the next Mexican star. While her official UFC stats currently stand at zeroes across striking and grappling metrics, Tarin’s youth, coaching camp reports, and local support suggest she could surprise on Opening Night.

Why This Fight Matters

• Local Flavor: Regina Tarin debuts in front of a passionate Mexico City audience, carrying the hopes of a nation known for producing UFC champions.
• Experience vs. Upside: Ernesta Kareckaite’s UFC résumé features a split-decision win over Nicolle Caliari and only one loss (unanimous decision to Dione Barbosa). Tarin’s blank slate presents unpredictability.
• Styles Make Fights: Kareckaite’s balanced striking and wrestling base will collide with Tarin’s ambition and raw athleticism. Expect Kareckaite to dictate the pace, while Tarin will look to land early, game-changing strikes.

Betting Outlook

• Favorite: Ernesta Kareckaite (–170)
  • Consistent odds across BetMGM (–185), FanDuel (–184), and BetRivers (–195).
  • Elite takedown defense (83%) and significant strike defense (48%).
• Underdog: Regina Tarin (+142)
  • Best value at Caesars (+143) and DraftKings (+142).
  • Youthful energy and the “home-field” edge can’t be discounted.

As the preliminary card unfolds in the Arena CDMX, keep an eye on this intriguing catchweight clash. Will the veteran Kareckaite showcase her well-rounded MMA game, or will Tarin shock the world with a highlight-reel debut? Strap in for a fast-paced, three-round spectacle to ignite UFC Fight Night in Mexico City.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Ernesta Kareckaite Profile

Age: 26
Country: Lithuania
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a strong wrestling and grappling base

• Record: 6-1-1 (UFC 1-1-0)
• UFC Tenure: Debuted May 4, 2024
• Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):
  1. Jan. 11, 2025: Win vs. Nicolle Caliari – Split Decision
  2. May 4, 2024: Loss vs. Dione Barbosa – Unanimous Decision
  3. Earlier in career: Draw on regional circuit

Statistical Strengths:

• Takedown Accuracy (67%) & Takedown Defense (83%) – Kareckaite excels in wrestling exchanges, both initiating successful takedowns and stifling opponent’s shots.
• Cardio & Durability – Two three-round fights in the UFC demonstrate her gas tank and ability to maintain pace through 15 minutes.
• Finishing Instincts: Two first-round finishes in eight pro fights highlight her ability to seize openings early.

Statistical Vulnerabilities:

• Significant Strike Accuracy (42%) – While respectable, this leaves room for opponents to outland or counter her output.
• Significant Strike Defense (48%) – Kareckaite has absorbed nearly as many strikes as she defends, suggesting room for improvement against high-volume strikers.

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Regina Tarin Profile

Age: 21
Country: Mexico
Fighting Style: Upside-laden prospect with a presumed striking pedigree supported by a well-rounded grappling toolkit

• Record: 0-0-0 (UFC Debut)
• UFC Debut: Feb. 28, 2026 (Catchweight 126 lb)
• Regional Momentum: While official pro numbers aren’t published in UFC stats, Tarin arrives undefeated in regional promotions with notable stoppages that earned her this call-up.

Observed Strengths:

• Youth & Athleticism – At 21, Tarin boasts explosive movement, quick reflexes and an optionality in range management that can trouble veterans.
• Local Support & Intangibles – Fighting at Arena CDMX in front of a passionate home crowd often elevates performance, and Tarin will feed off that energy.
• Power Potential – Early footage and gym reports point to heavy hands and a willingness to engage.

Potential Weaknesses:

• Inexperience at UFC Level – Transitioning from regional promotions to the world’s biggest stage brings factors—cage size, global audience, five-star pressure—that can impact game plans.
• Unknown Grappling Metrics – With no official takedown or submission data, it’s unclear how Tarin will respond to sustained wrestling pressure.
• Striking Defense – Early footage shows room to tighten her guard against counters from seasoned strikers.

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Head-to-Head Synopsis

• Experience Edge: Kareckaite’s two-fight UFC sample is backed by eight pro outings, including high-pressure decisions. Tarin’s UFC debut means she must acclimate on the fly.
• Wrestling vs. Youthful Aggression: Kareckaite will likely look to exploit her 67% takedown success to neutralize Tarin’s stand-up, whereas Tarin must keep the fight upright—using angles and power—to prevent being dragged into grappling scrambles.
• Cardio & Pace: Kareckaite’s average fight time sits at 15:00, indicating she can maintain a consistent pace. Tarin’s gas tank at five-minute rounds remains untested at this level.

This clash of seasoned grappler versus promising hometown striker sets the stage for a classic styles matchup. The question: can Tarin’s youthful explosiveness and home-field fervor overcome Kareckaite’s proven wrestling and UFC-seasoned durability?

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Ernesta Kareckaite (Favorite): Ranges from –164 (BetOnline) to –195 (BetRivers), with most books at –170.
• Regina Tarin (Underdog): Varies between +142 (BetUS, DraftKings) and +155 (BetRivers).

At BetOnline.ag you can back Kareckaite at the softest number (–164), while the juiciest price on Tarin sits at +155 with BetRivers. If you’re siding with the favorite and want to maximize your return, locking in –164 at BetOnline.ag is the sharpest play. Conversely, Tarin bettors should shop around Bovada (+153) and BetRivers (+155) for the best value.

Line Movement Analysis

Ernesta Kareckaite

• BetUS opened Kareckaite at –185 two days out, dipped to –180, then swung as high as –160 before settling back to –170.
• DraftKings saw a similar roller-coaster: –170 → –180 → –198 → –175 → –170.
• Caesars eased from –190 to –170 over 24 hours.
These swings suggest early money tempered the line upward (more bearish on Kareckaite) before late sharp bets pushed it back to the favorite’s comfort zone. The net shift from –185 to –170 indicates public confidence balancing with sharp interest.

Regina Tarin

• Bovada’s line moved from +158 → +163 → +153 → +150 → +153.
• BetUS dropped Tarin from +154 to +142 in the final 12 hours.
• DraftKings trimmed +142 → +150 → +164 → +145 → +142.
The underdog’s price softened as bettors backed Tarin in her home country; that contraction from +160 to +142 shows growing respect for her power upside.

Payout Scenarios

• $1,000 on Ernesta Kareckaite at –170:
  • Profit: $588.24
  • Total Return: $1,588.24

• $1,000 on Regina Tarin at +142:
  • Profit: $1,420
  • Total Return: $2,420

If you can find Kareckaite at –164, a $1,000 wager nets $609.76 (total $1,609.76). And if you snag Tarin at +155, $1,000 turns into $2,550 total.

Implied Win Probabilities

• Kareckaite (–170): ~63% chance to win
• Tarin (+142): ~41% chance to win

Best Betting Strategy

1. Shop for Odds: Differences of a few points on the line can swing hundreds in profit.
2. Early vs. Late: Early lines favored Kareckaite heavily; late money has crept toward the young Mexican hopeful.
3. Value Play: If you believe Kareckaite’s wrestling edge is overstated, +142 on Tarin is attractive. Conversely, if you trust Kareckaite’s proven takedown defense and cardio, betting her at –164 is the sharpest favorite play.

By monitoring these line moves and shopping for the best price, you can maximize your edge whether you’re backing the veteran or the rookie with a point to prove.