Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele Fight Analysis
Introduction
On Saturday, May 2, 2026, fight fans will descend upon the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, for an action-packed night of UFC competition headlined by Della Maddalena vs. Prates. However, all eyes on the Preliminary Card will be locked in on the lightweight clash between rising Australian prospect Dom Mar Fan and gritty American contender Kody Steele. Scheduled to begin at approximately 8:00 AM AEST (May 2, 2026, 00:00 UTC) on the UFC Fight Night Prelims, this bout promises fireworks as each fighter looks to make a statement early in their UFC careers.
Event Details
- Event: UFC Fight Night – Della Maddalena vs. Prates
- Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia
- Date & Time: May 2, 2026, 8:00 AM (AEST) / May 1, 2026, 10:00 PM (ET)
- Card Position: Preliminary Card, Lightweight Division
The Favorite: Kody Steele
American orthodox striker Kody Steele (7-1-0) enters this matchup as the clear betting favorite, with the majority of sportsbooks listing him around -185 (American odds). A Feb. 8, 2025 UFC debutant, Steele has showcased a balanced skill set highlighted by his impressive 52% significant strike defense and a perfect 100% takedown defense, allowing just one takedown attempt against him so far. With 4 knockouts, 1 submission victory, and an average fight time of 12 minutes and 4 seconds, Steele has proven he can control the pace and keep opponents guessing whether he’ll close the show with strikes or outlast them to a decision. His lone blemish—a unanimous decision loss to Zhu Rong—came in his debut, but Steele has since learned and adapted, stringing together a three-fight win streak that included a dominant outing in his most recent performance.
The Underdog: Dom Mar Fan
Standing across the Octagon is Australian upstart Dom Mar Fan (9-2-0), a 25-year-old rookie in UFC with a flawless undefeated camp record. Making his promotional debut on Jan. 31, 2026, Mar Fan out-worked Sangwook Kim over three hard-fought rounds to secure a unanimous decision win. Despite limited UFC experience, Mar Fan has a well-rounded arsenal—his 56% striking accuracy and 50% takedown success rate demonstrate versatility in both stand-up exchanges and ground control. While most books list him as the underdog at +155, the home-court advantage and his strong submission pedigree (3 submission wins) make him a dangerous opponent for anyone willing to overlook the Australian’s rapid ascent.
Why This Fight Matters
- Stylistic Contrast: Steel’s technical striking defense versus Mar Fan’s aggressive volume and takedown threats.
- Momentum vs. Hometown Hero: Steele’s redemption arc after his lone loss clashes with Mar Fan’s shark-hungry debut streak.
- Lightweight Division Implications: A win for Steele solidifies his status as a top-15 prospect. A victory for Mar Fan could catapult the Aussie into immediate contender talk.
As bettors weigh the -185 favorite against the +155 underdog, the stakes are high for both camps. Will Kody Steele’s ironclad defense and power production prove too much, or will Dom Mar Fan’s well-rounded approach and hometown energy shock the world? Stay tuned for an explosive clash in Australia’s Octagon spotlight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Prates event page.
Matchup Overview
As the UFC Fight Night Prelims kick off in Perth, Western Australia, the lightweight division gets a compelling preview in the clash between Kody Steele and Dom Mar Fan. On paper, this bout pits Steele’s ironclad defense and power against Mar Fan’s precision striking and grappling versatility. Both fighters are newcomers to the Octagon, eager to build momentum and stake their claim in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions.
Kody Steele Profile
- Age: 29
- Country: United States
- Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Striking
- UFC Record: 0-1-0 (Pro Record: 7-1-0)
Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)
- Feb. 8, 2025 – Loss vs. Zhu Rong (Decision – Unanimous) [UFC Debut]
- Dec. 14, 2024 – Win vs. Luke Thompson (KO – Round 2) [Regional Promotion]
- Aug. 30, 2024 – Win vs. Michael Harris (Submission – Rear-Naked Choke, R1)
Following a flawless 7-0 run on the regional circuit, Steele fell short in his UFC debut against the technically sound Zhu Rong. Prior to that setback, he had demonstrated finishing ability with four knockouts and one submission victory, showcasing power in both stand-up and grappling exchanges.
Dom Mar Fan Profile
- Age: 25
- Country: Australia
- Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA
- UFC Record: 1-0-0 (Pro Record: 9-2-0)
Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)
- Jan. 31, 2026 – Win vs. Sangwook Kim (Decision – Unanimous) [UFC Debut]
- Nov. 22, 2025 – Win vs. Hiroshi Tanaka (Submission – Arm-Triangle, R2)
- Sep. 5, 2025 – Loss vs. Carlos Silva (Decision – Split)
Mar Fan burst onto the UFC scene with a methodical three-round win over Sangwook Kim, securing all three judge’s scorecards. His pro record reflects resilience—bouncing back from two early-career losses to run off nine victories, including three by submission.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Kody Steele
-
Strengths
- Takedown Defense (100%) – No opponent has successfully taken him down in UFC competition.
- Significant Strike Defense (52%) – Effectively avoids and counters incoming strikes.
- Finish Rate – 5 of 7 wins inside the distance demonstrate power in both striking and grappling.
-
Weaknesses
- Takedown Offense (14%) – Struggles to secure takedowns, limiting ground control.
- Striking Accuracy (33%) – Below-average connect rate may require higher output to find success.
- Experience Under Pressure – His lone UFC outing exposed him to extended, technical striking.
Dom Mar Fan
-
Strengths
- Striking Accuracy (56%) – One of the highest rates in the lightweight prelim slate.
- Takedown Accuracy (50%) – Can mix level changes effectively to keep opponents guessing.
- Age & Activity – At 25, youthful gas tank and already five fights in the past two years.
-
Weaknesses
- Takedown Defense (67%) – Vulnerable to wrestlers who pressure and chain-wrestle.
- Significant Strike Defense (44%) – Allows opponents to land nearly half of their attempts.
- Power Production – Only one knockout, suggesting less one-punch finishing threat.
This stylistic and statistical breakdown reveals two contrasting paths to victory. Steele will look to shut down offense, clinch the center, and land at range, while Mar Fan aims to overwhelm with accuracy and mix in takedowns to exploit defensive holes. Expect a tactical chess match that could erupt at any moment in front of the fervent Perth crowd.
Odds & Betting Breakdown
Current Betting Odds
- Favorite: Kody Steele (–185 to –192)
- Underdog: Dom Mar Fan (+150 to +160)
Across major sportsbooks, Steele sits as a clear favorite:
- Caesars, BetOnline.ag, BetUS: –185
- BetRivers: –186
- DraftKings: –192
Meanwhile, Mar Fan is offered as the underdog:
- BetRivers: +150
- Caesars: +155
- BetUS: +154
- BetOnline.ag & DraftKings: +160
Best Books to Back Each Fighter
- For Kody Steele, the most attractive line is –185 at Caesars, BetOnline.ag, and BetUS.
- For Dom Mar Fan, the top payout is +160 at BetOnline.ag and DraftKings.
Line Movement & Market Trends
Since opening bets on April 25–26, both fighters have seen noticeable shifts:
- Steele: Opened around –175 to –180; has been steadily shortened to –185 at most books (–192 at DraftKings), indicating heavier action or sharp money on his side.
- Mar Fan: Opened at +146 to +150; has drifted out to as high as +160. This movement suggests bettors are cautious on the Australian despite his home-town edge.
The swing of roughly 10–15 cents on both sides reflects a market leaning toward Steele’s proven defense and finishing ability, while Mar Fan’s line has ticked outward as oddsmakers balance action.
Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances
If you staked $1,000:
- On Kody Steele (–185): You’d net about $540 in profit, for a total return near $1,540.
- On Dom Mar Fan (+160): You’d pocket $1,600, for a total payout of $2,600.
In simple terms, Steele’s odds imply he’s the stronger favorite (roughly a 65% chance to win), while Mar Fan’s underdog tag hints at around a 38% shot. These probabilities aren’t exact science—vig and book management adjust the true odds—but they give a clear edge to Steele on the moneyline.
What This Means for Bettors
- Value on Mar Fan: +160 offers a big payday if the Aussie can leverage his striking accuracy and takedown mix against Steele’s defense.
- Safety on Steele: –185 reflects a high-probability play, especially if you trust his 100% takedown defense and ability to control the distance.
Ultimately, your choice comes down to risk appetite: lock in the favorite at a moderate return, or swing for the fences with Dom Mar Fan’s home-field momentum and superior odds.
AI Pick: Dom Mar Fan
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Dom Mar Fan, or see all the AI picks for Della Maddalena vs Prates. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
