Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio Odds & Analysis | UFC 328

Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio Fight Analysis

Introduction

The middleweight clash between Roman Kopylov and Marco Tulio is set to kick off the Early Preliminary Card at UFC 328, live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday, May 9, 2026, at 9:00 PM ET. This pivotal bout promises fireworks as two heavy-handed strikers collide in the Octagon, each looking to climb the divisional ladder and deliver their team an electrifying start to fight night.

Event Details

• Event: UFC 328 – Chimaev vs Strickland
• Date & Time: Saturday, May 9, 2026, at 9:00 PM ET (Early Prelims)
• Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, USA
• Card Position: Early Preliminary Card (first fight of the evening)

Betting Odds & Status

Heading into fight night, the oddsmakers have installed Marco Tulio as the favorite.

• Tulio Silva: –175 (BetOnline.ag)
• Roman Kopylov: +150 (BetOnline.ag)

These odds reflect Tulio’s recent run of first‐ and second‐round stoppages, coupled with his impressive 59% striking accuracy and 60% significant strike defense. Meanwhile, Kopylov enters as the underdog, despite a formidable 14–5 professional record and a 48% takedown accuracy that can make even the most durable strikers wary.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Styles Make Fights:

   • Marco Tulio (14–2, 10 KOs) is a pure striker from Uberlândia, Brazil, packing powerful leg kicks and crisp combinations. He’s finished 7 of his 14 wins in the first round and boasts a quick pace, with an average fight time of just 8:28.
   • Roman Kopylov (14–5, 12 KOs), hailing from Kemerovo Oblast, Russia, is a versatile fighter with heavy punches and a solid 48% takedown accuracy. His longer reach (75") and stout takedown defense (89%) make him a dangerous counterpuncher who can drag opponents into deep waters.

2. Career Resurgence on the Line:

   • After dropping decisions to Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodrigues, Kopylov needs a statement win to halt his skid and reassert himself in the middleweight top 15.
   • Tulio looks to bounce back from his lone UFC loss—a second‐round knockout to Christian Leroy Duncan—and maintain his momentum toward contender status.

3. Regional Impact & Atmosphere:

   • The Prudential Center has hosted numerous landmark UFC cards, and the passionate New Jersey crowd will be roaring behind both international talents. This atmosphere adds another layer of intensity to an already high‐stakes showdown.

As fight night approaches, all eyes will be on these two heavy hitters. Will the Brazilian slugger Marco Tulio live up to his favorite billing, or will the resilient Russian powerhouse Roman Kopylov pull off the upset? Stay tuned for a technical, explosive opening bout that could set the tone for UFC 328.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Chimaev vs Strickland can be found on the Chimaev vs Strickland event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

The middleweight clash between Marco Tulio and Roman Kopylov pits two heavy-handed finishers with contrasting skill sets. Tulio, the precision striker, looks to overwhelm his opponents early, while Kopylov’s well-rounded toolkit—featuring powerful wrestling and boxing—tests his foes’ durability over three hard-fought rounds.

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Marco Tulio Profile

Age: 31
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Pure Striker

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

• 11/08/2025: Loss vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (KO/TKO, R2, 3:20)
• 04/12/2025: Win vs. Tresean Gore (KO/TKO, R2, 3:16)
• 01/11/2025: Win vs. Ihor Potieria (KO/TKO, R1, 3:04)

Key Statistics:

• Record: 14–2–0
• KO Rate: 10 of 14 wins (71%)
• First-Round Finishes: 7
• Avg. Fight Time: 8:28
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 59%
• Significant Strike Defense: 60%
• Takedown Accuracy: 27%
• Takedown Defense: 0%

Strengths:

• Explosive Power: Tulio finishes 71% of his victories by knockout, often ending fights before the second round.
• Striking Precision: A 59% accuracy rate allows Tulio to land heavy combinations while minimizing wasted punches.
• Defensive Timing: At 60%, his significant strike defense frustrates opponents and creates counter-punching opportunities.

Weaknesses:

• Wrestling Deficit: A 27% takedown success rate and 0% takedown defense indicate Tulio is vulnerable if opponents force him into grappling exchanges.
• Durability Question Marks: His lone UFC loss came by KO, suggesting potential issues handling heavy hitters at range.

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Roman Kopylov Profile

Age: 33
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Boxing-Heavy Wrestler

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• 11/15/2025: Loss vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Decision – Unanimous)
• 07/19/2025: Loss vs. Paulo Costa (Decision – Unanimous)
• 01/11/2025: Win vs. Chris Curtis (KO/TKO, R3, 4:59)
• 06/01/2024: Win vs. Cesar Almeida (Decision – Split)
• 02/17/2024: Loss vs. Anthony Hernandez (Submission, R2, 3:23)

Key Statistics:

• Record: 14–5–0
• KO Rate: 12 of 14 wins (86%)
• First-Round Finishes: 1
• Avg. Fight Time: 12:01
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Significant Strike Defense: 52%
• Takedown Accuracy: 48%
• Takedown Defense: 89%

Strengths:

• Wrestling Prowess: Nearly half of Kopylov’s takedown attempts succeed, and he defends 89% of incoming shots, allowing him to control where the fight takes place.
• Finishing Power: With an 86% knockout rate, he can end fights with a single shot—especially in later rounds when opponents fatigue.
• Durability & Card-Stamina: An average fight time of 12 minutes and multiple decision victories demonstrate his capacity to push through three full rounds.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Efficiency: At 50% accuracy, Kopylov lacks the pinpoint precision of a pure striker, which could leave him open to counters.
• Slow Starts: Only one first-round finish and two recent decision losses suggest he can be outpaced early by aggressive opponents.
• Submission Susceptibility: A loss by submission indicates occasional lapses on the mat when facing strong grapplers.

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Tactical Breakdown

• Tulio’s Path to Victory: Keep the fight standing, unleash heavy leg kicks and straight punches, and seek an early stoppage before grappling exchanges begin.
• Kopylov’s Path to Victory: Drag Tulio into wrestling ties, tire out his opponent over multiple rounds, and capitalize on openings with late-fight power shots.

This clash of styles—striking dynamo vs. wrestle-boxer—makes UFC 328’s opener one of the most intriguing matchups on the card. Who will impose their game plan and secure a statement win?

Odds & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Marco Tulio is the clear favorite over Roman Kopylov on the UFC 328 early prelims.

• Marco Tulio Silva: –175 (BetOnline.ag)
• Roman Kopylov: +150 (BetOnline.ag)

With Tulio priced at –175, bettors must risk $175 to win $100, while Kopylov’s +150 line returns $150 on a $100 wager. The 150-point gap underscores Tulio’s standing as the betting market favorite, with Kopylov sliding into underdog territory despite his 14–5 pro record.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the line movement over the last 24 hours reveals steady support for Tulio and growing skepticism around Kopylov’s chances:

Marco Tulio Silva (–175)

• Apr 28, 12:11 ET: –135
• Apr 28, 12:19 ET: –150
• Apr 28, 18:38 ET: –154
• Apr 29, 08:00 ET: –175

Roman Kopylov (+150)

• Apr 28, 12:11 ET: +115
• Apr 28, 12:19 ET: +130
• Apr 28, 18:38 ET: +134
• Apr 29, 08:00 ET: +150

Key takeaways:

• Tulio’s line has moved from –135 to –175, a 40-cent shift, as money poured in on his precise striking and knockout history.
• Kopylov’s underdog odds drifted from +115 to +150, indicating fewer bets on the Russian and more confidence in Tulio’s finishing power.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

Based on current available lines, BetOnline.ag stands out:

• Competitive prices on both fighters
• Consistent line updates reflecting sharp money
• No-fee deposits and a solid reputation for fast payouts

For bettors seeking the best mix of odds and reliability on this bout, BetOnline.ag remains the top choice.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet & Implied Probabilities

If you’re backing either man with $1,000:

• $1,000 on Marco Tulio (–175) returns $1,571.43 total ($571.43 profit).
• $1,000 on Roman Kopylov (+150) returns $2,500 total ($1,500 profit).

While Tulio’s odds imply roughly a 64% chance to win, Kopylov’s +150 line suggests about a 40% chance. The overlap stems from the sportsbook’s built-in vigorish, but these figures give a quick read on how oddsmakers view each fighter’s path to victory.

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Whether you lean toward Tulio’s first-round knockout potential or Kopylov’s wrestling-heavy game plan, understanding the odds swings and potential payouts is crucial for making an informed wager on UFC 328’s opening bout.