UFC Bukauskas vs Bellato Odds, Analysis & Picks

Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato fight analysis

Date & Venue: Saturday, May 16, 2026 • Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Event: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa – Main Card
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lb)

The highly anticipated Light Heavyweight showdown between Modestas Bukauskas and Rodolfo Bellato is set to kick off the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa main card on Saturday, May 16, 2026, at the state-of-the-art Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas. This contest marks an intriguing stylistic clash as two hungry strikers—each looking to resurrect their own momentum—meet under the bright lights of Sin City. At BetOnline.ag, Bukauskas enters as the slight favorite at –130, while Bellato carries the underdog tag at +110, indicating an evenly poised battle where one punch or slick takedown could swing the outcome.

As a grizzled veteran of seventeen professional fights, Modestas Bukauskas (19-7-0) brings a well-rounded arsenal to the octagon. The 31-year-old Lithuanian kickboxer boasts 11 knockout victories and a takedown accuracy north of 67%, underscoring his ability to mix punches with effective level changes. Despite a recent setback—a third-round TKO loss to Nikita Krylov in January—Bukauskas has demonstrated resilience throughout his UFC tenure, dispatching former contenders like Paul Craig and Marcin Prachnio via knockout and submission, respectively. His average fight time of 9:40 suggests comfort in both explosive finishes and grinding exchanges.

On the opposite side, Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1) is a 30-year-old Brazilian striker who has rattled off nine first-round stoppages across his 17-fight career. Bellato’s 60% significant strike accuracy and 94% takedown defense paint the picture of an aggressive yet disciplined athlete who can keep the fight standing or defend grappling attempts with ease. After suffering a trio of defeats in 2025, including a unanimous decision loss to Jim Crute, Bellato recaptured his form with a first-round KO of Luke Fernandez in March, proving that his power remains elite in the division.

With both competitors standing 75 inches tall and boasting similar reach dimensions, this bout is expected to play out in the pocket. Bukauskas may look to exploit Bellato’s vulnerability to leg kicks and clinch work, while Bellato will aim to dictate distance with crisp jab-lead combinations and hunt the knockout blow early. Conditioning and fight IQ will be critical late in the second and third rounds, should the bout avoid an early finish.

In this breakdown, we’ll dive deeper into each fighter’s technical strengths and weaknesses, recent form, and strategic blueprint. Whether you’re backing the favorite to bounce back after his Krylov loss or siding with the underdog looking to upset the odds, this Modestas Bukauskas vs. Rodolfo Bellato tilt promises fireworks at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Allen vs Costa can be found on the Allen vs Costa event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Modestas Bukauskas Profile

Age: 31 • Country: Lithuania • Fighting Style: Kickboxer
Record: 19-7-0 (UFC 5-4)
Key Metrics:

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 43%
• Significant Strike Defense: 51%
• Takedown Accuracy: 67%
• Takedown Defense: 79%
• Avg. Fight Time: 9:40

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

1. Jan. 24, 2026 – Loss vs. Nikita Krylov (KO/TKO, R3 4:57)
2. Sep. 6, 2025 – Win vs. Paul Craig (KO/TKO, R1 5:00)
3. May 10, 2025 – Win vs. Ion Cutelaba (Decision – Split)
4. Feb. 22, 2025 – Win vs. Rafael Cerqueira (KO/TKO, R1 2:12)
5. Jul. 27, 2024 – Win vs. Marcin Prachnio (Submission, R3 3:12)

Strengths:

• Takedown Offense: At 67% accuracy, Bukauskas mixes powerful leg kicks with level changes to keep opponents guessing.
• Finishing Ability: 11 knockouts and 8 first-round finishes highlight his ever-present power.
• Cardio & Pace: An average fight time near ten minutes shows comfort in longer scrambles and late-round pressure.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Precision: A 43% connect rate suggests Bukauskas can be predictable in his combinations against technical strikers.
• Takedown Defense: While respectable at 79%, elite wrestlers may still expose him on the mat.
• Vulnerability to Power Shots: The KO loss to Krylov exposed a chin susceptible to well-timed counters in the late rounds.

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Rodolfo Bellato Profile

Age: 30 • Country: Brazil • Fighting Style: MMA Striker
Record: 13-3-1 (UFC 4-3)
Key Metrics:

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 60%
• Significant Strike Defense: 47%
• Takedown Accuracy: 35%
• Takedown Defense: 94%
• Avg. Fight Time: 9:20

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

1. Mar. 7, 2026 – Win vs. Luke Fernandez (KO/TKO, R1 2:42)
2. Sep. 27, 2025 – Loss vs. Navajo Stirling (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Jun. 14, 2025 – Loss vs. Paul Craig (Could Not Continue, R1 4:59)
4. May 17, 2025 – Loss vs. Paul Craig (Decision, late cancellation)
5. Feb. 8, 2025 – Loss vs. Jim Crute (Decision – Majority)

Strengths:

• Striking Efficiency: A remarkable 60% significant-strike accuracy allows Bellato to land clean, fight-ending shots.
• Takedown Defense: At 94%, elite wrestlers struggle to drag him down, enabling him to keep the fight standing.
• Explosive Power: Nine first-round finishes underscore his one-punch knockout threat early in the fight.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: Conceding 53% of incoming significant strikes means he can be out-paced or picked apart by volume strikers.
• Wrestling Offense: A 35% takedown rate limits his ability to change levels and mix in ground attacks.
• Durability Late: Three consecutive losses in 2025 suggest potential cardio or mental lapses in deep waters.

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Comparative Analysis

This clash pits Bukauskas’ wrestling-infused kickboxing against Bellato’s pure knockout power. Bukauskas will look to grind out rounds with takedown chains and heavy leg kicks, exploiting Bellato’s average striking defense. Conversely, Bellato aims to maintain distance, pepper in jabs, and finish early—banking on his 60% accuracy and 94% takedown defense to neutralize Bukauskas’ wrestling. The key battle lies in the clinch and late-round exchanges: can Bellato weather the storm and land a fight-ender, or will Bukauskas impose his will with grappling and heavy leather as the rounds progress? This stylistic puzzle will define the outcome in Las Vegas.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Modestas Bukauskas: –130 (favorite)
• Rodolfo Bellato: +110 (underdog)
• Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag

At BetOnline.ag, Bukauskas opens as a moderate favorite with American odds of –130, while Bellato stakes his claim as the underdog at +110. The line gap reflects the oddsmaker’s view that Bukauskas has roughly a 56.5% chance to win, whereas Bellato sits near 47.6% implied probability.

Line Movement & Trends

Since the odds were posted on May 8, 2026, there has been no significant line movement at BetOnline.ag. Both fighters’ numbers have held steady, indicating balanced early action on each side. In the absence of any sharp swings—such as a shift from –150 to –120 or +120 to +100—bettors can infer that public and sharp money have been roughly even.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite (Modestas Bukauskas): His wrestling-infused striking and 67% takedown accuracy make him the safer play in the eyes of bookmakers.
• Underdog (Rodolfo Bellato): Despite his status, Bellato’s 60% striking accuracy and nine first-round finishes present real upset potential.

The relatively narrow spread (just 20 cents in vig-adjusted probability) suggests a highly competitive matchup. Bettors looking for value may lean toward Bellato’s underdog price, while risk-averse punters might back Bukauskas to rebound from his recent loss.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

BetOnline.ag stands out here as the exclusive source of quoted odds and offers:

• Competitive lines with minimal juice.
• Early release of markets nearly two weeks in advance.
• Stable odds with no dramatic shifts, limiting the risk of late line squash.

If you shop lines across multiple books, look for any slight variations around –125/–135 for Bukauskas or +105/+115 for Bellato to maximize value.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you wager $1,000 on either fighter today:

• Modestas Bukauskas (–130): You’d profit $769 and receive $1,769 total back.
• Rodolfo Bellato (+110): You’d profit $1,100 and receive $2,100 total back.

Implied probabilities (no math breakdown):

• Bukauskas ~56.5%
• Bellato ~47.6%

With these figures in mind, consider your risk tolerance and where you see value. The absence of major line swings suggests this is a true 50-50 affair in the marketplace, so shop around and lock in the best price before the fight night action heats up.