Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas Fight Analysis

Mark your calendars for June 21, 2026, as the Flyweight division heats up on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi, live from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This pivotal matchup pits two contrasting trajectories against one another: the unbeaten Brazilian rising star Andre Lima and the hard-hitting Peruvian veteran Kevin Borjas. With Lima installed as a commanding favorite on the odds board (–700 at BetOnline.ag) and Borjas firmly cast in the underdog role (+500), this bout promises a stylistic clash that could have major implications for both men’s standings in the ultra-competitive 125-pound division.

Fight Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Kape vs Horiguchi
• Date & Time: June 21, 2026, Main Card slot
• Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
• Division: Flyweight (125 lb)
• Odds: Andre Lima (–700) vs Kevin Borjas (+500)

Setting the Stage

Andre Lima enters the octagon sporting a perfect 11–0 professional record, boasting five first-round finishes and an imposing 60% significant striking accuracy, alongside a 75% takedown success rate. At just 26 years old, the Bahia, Brazil native has already demonstrated a polished blend of kickboxing pedigree and grappling savvy that allows him to dictate pace and position. His average fight time hovers just over 13 minutes, underscoring his ability to grind out decisions or hunt finish opportunities when the moment arises.

In contrast, Kevin Borjas (10–5) has built his resume on raw power and finishing instincts, recording eight knockouts and five first-round stoppages throughout his career. The 28-year-old from Lima, Peru remains a threat whenever he unleashes his hands, yet his path has been marred by inconsistency—particularly against higher-caliber foes who can neutralize his offense and expose defensive gaps. His 44% striking accuracy and 0% takedown success to this point suggest a one-dimensional attacker, albeit one capable of explosively turning a fight with a single shot.

Favorite vs. Underdog Narrative

Oddsmakers have made Andre Lima the prohibitive favorite, reflecting his unbeaten slate, technical versatility, and momentum since debuting in March 2024. Lima’s ability to mix long-range combinations with timely level changes has frustrated opponents and positioned him as one of the brightest talents at 125 pounds. Meanwhile, Kevin Borjas steps in as the quintessential underdog: a dangerous finisher who must land early, disrupt Lima’s rhythm, and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges to punch above his +500 price tag.

As we countdown to fight night, bettors and fans alike will be weighing the Brazilian’s wave of momentum against Borjas’s bull-in-a-china-shop style. Will Lima extend his perfect record with another masterful performance, or can Borjas shock the world with an upset on the grand stage of the UFC Apex? The answers will unfold when the cage door closes on June 21.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Kape vs Horiguchi can be found on the Kape vs Horiguchi event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

As we build toward fight night, it’s crucial to understand not just the head-to-head matchup, but each athlete’s unique background, recent form and key strengths and vulnerabilities.

Andre Lima Profile

Age: 26
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Kickboxer with pro-level grappling transitions
UFC Debut: Mar. 23, 2024
Record: 11-0-0

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

• Mar. 15, 2025 vs Daniel Barez – Win by Submission (R3, 3:05)
• Sept. 7, 2024 vs Felipe Dos Santos – Win by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)
• June 1, 2024 vs Mitch Raposo – Win by Split Decision (3 Rounds)
• Mar. 23, 2024 vs Igor Severino – Win by DQ (R2, 2:52)

Strengths

• High Striking Accuracy (60%): Lima lands 3 out of every 5 significant strikes, allowing him to dictate range and punish opponents at distance.
• Strong Takedown Offense (75%): Elite level-change timing enables him to mix stand-up with ground control, keeping foes guessing.
• Well-Rounded Defense: Defends 58% of incoming strikes and 75% of takedown attempts—his ability to shut down counters and scrambles frustrates aggressive opponents.
• Versatility: Comfortable grinding through full 15-minute fights (avg. fight time 13:11) or hunting finishes in early rounds (4 first-round stoppages).

Weaknesses

• Moderate Finishing Rate: With 5 KOs in 11 wins and no official submission finishes, his stoppage ceiling may be lower against elite grapplers or iron-chinned strikers.
• Reliance on Volume: His average fight time suggests a willingness to outwork rather than overwhelm, which could open him up to heavy hits if he overextends.

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Kevin Borjas Profile

Age: 28
Country: Peru
Fighting Style: Power striker / brawler
UFC Debut: Nov. 11, 2023
Record: 10-5-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Feb. 28, 2026 vs Imanol Rodriguez – Loss by Decision
• Aug. 23, 2025 vs Sumudaerji – Loss by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)
• Mar. 29, 2025 vs Luis Rodriguez – Win by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)
• May 4, 2024 vs Alessandro Costa – Loss by KO/TKO (R2, 1:35)
• Nov. 11, 2023 vs Joshua Van – Loss by Unanimous Decision (3 Rounds)

Strengths

• Heavy Hitting Power: 8 of his 10 career wins have come by knockout, and he boasts 5 first-round stoppages—he can end a fight in an instant.
• Finishing Instincts: Borjas maintains pressure, hunting openings to land fight-ending blows, especially early on.
• Takedown Defense (71%): While not a wrestler, he uses his base and underhooks effectively to keep battles standing.

Weaknesses

• Low Striking Accuracy (44%): Less than half of his significant strikes connect, leading to wasted energy and open counters.
• Zero Takedown Offense (0%): Offers no grappling threat, making him one-dimensional and easier to game-plan against.
• Susceptible to Volume Attackers: His 49% strike defense means opponents who swarm and mix levels—like Lima—can exploit defensive lapses.
• Inconsistency: A 1–4 run in his last five UFC bouts highlights struggles to adjust when pressured by technical fighters.

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By contrasting Lima’s precision and well-rounded toolkit with Borjas’s “all-or-nothing” power approach, this matchup shapes up as a classic chess match versus sledgehammer scenario. Understanding each fighter’s profile is key for both casual fans and bettors looking to predict how this clash of styles will unfold.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Understanding the latest betting odds and how they’ve shifted over time is crucial for anyone looking to wager on Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas. Below we break down the current lines, historical moves, potential payouts, implied probabilities, and where to get the best value.

Current Odds Overview

• Andre Lima: –700 (BetOnline.ag)
• Kevin Borjas: +500 (BetOnline.ag)

With Lima installed as a heavy favorite at –700, you must risk $700 to win $100. Borjas, the underdog at +500, returns $500 on every $100 wagered. The substantial gap underscores how oddsmakers view Lima’s unbeaten record and well-rounded skill set versus Borjas’s one-dimensional power game.

Line History and Movement

• Andre Lima at BetOnline.ag
  • June 10, 2026, 15:01 UTC: –800
  • June 11, 2026, 08:01 UTC: –700

• Kevin Borjas at BetOnline.ag
  • June 10, 2026, 15:01 UTC: +575
  • June 10, 2026, 19:00 UTC: +525
  • June 11, 2026, 08:01 UTC: +500

Noticeable movement:

• Lima eased from –800 to –700, indicating some wagering activity backing Borjas or profit-taking on the favorite.
• Borjas shortened from +575 to +500, suggesting bettors are willing to back the underdog at a slightly better price than initially offered.

These shifts show growing confidence in Borjas’s upset potential or a recalibration of Lima’s perceived invincibility.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

• Betting on Andre Lima (–700)
  • Profit: ($1,000 ÷ 700) × 100 ≈ $143
  • Total Return: $1,143

• Betting on Kevin Borjas (+500)
  • Profit: ($1,000 ÷ 100) × 500 = $5,000
  • Total Return: $6,000

Whether you’re chasing steady returns on the favorite or a massive payday on the underdog, these figures help you size your bet according to your risk tolerance.

Implied Probabilities

• Andre Lima (–700): Implied win probability ≈ 88%
• Kevin Borjas (+500): Implied win probability ≈ 17%

These probabilities reflect the market’s assessment of each fighter’s likelihood to win. While Lima’s chances appear overwhelming, Borjas’s +500 line still admits a realistic—if long-shot—upset scenario.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

Currently, BetOnline.ag offers the sharpest lines for this matchup and has displayed fluid adjustments reflecting real-time betting flow. If you seek the most competitive odds, especially on Borjas’s improving +500 underdog price, BetOnline.ag stands out for both reliability and value.

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By tracking these numbers—current lines, historical shifts, potential returns, and implied probabilities—you’ll be better equipped to decide whether to back the Brazilian phenom or take a calculated risk on the Peruvian knockout artist. Choose your side, size your wager, and enjoy the fight!