UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

# Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira fight analysis

## Event Overview  
Mark your calendars for Saturday, June 29, 2025: the UFC’s T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, will play host to **UFC 317**, headlined by a **Lightweight Title** showdown between undefeated contender **Ilia Topuria** and former champion **Charles Oliveira**. This bout is scheduled to start at approximately 10:00 PM ET (subject to the completion of preliminary and co-main events) and promises to deliver five rounds of high-stakes action under the bright lights of the Fight Capital of the World.

## The Favorite: Ilia Topuria  
- **Record**: 16-0-0  
- **Age**: 28  
- **Hometown**: Born in Germany, fighting out of Georgia  
- **Fighting Style**: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with evolving striking prowess  
- **Key Stat Line**:  
  - **First Round Finishes**: 9  
  - **Average Fight Time**: 10:14  
  - **Takedown Defence**: 93%  
  - **Significant Strike Defense**: 64%  

Ilia Topuria enters this matchup as the **clear betting favorite**, with odds sitting around **–425 to –480** across major sportsbooks (Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings). At just 28 years old and riding an unblemished 16-fight win streak in the UFC lightweight division, Topuria has blitzed through opponents with a combination of relentless pressure, slick submissions and ever-improving striking. His trademark is a suffocating pace—fresh off highlight-reel knockout victories over former champions Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski—making him a rising star who looks destined for gold.

## The Underdog: Charles Oliveira  
- **Record**: 35-10-0  
- **Age**: 35  
- **Hometown**: State of São Paulo, Brazil  
- **Fighting Style**: Elite Jiu-Jitsu with knockout power  
- **Key Stat Line**:  
  - **Wins by Submission**: 21 (UFC record)  
  - **Average Fight Time**: 07:38  
  - **Takedown Accuracy**: 40%  
  - **Significant Strike Accuracy**: 55%  

Despite a recent split decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan, Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira remains one of the most dangerous lightweights on the planet. A former undisputed champion and holder of the UFC’s all-time submission record, Oliveira enters this fight as the **underdog** at approximately **+275 to +350**. His experience—boasting 45 professional MMA bouts and victories over the likes of Justin Gaethje and Beneil Dariush—gives him a wealth of tools to exploit any opening, whether on the feet or the mat. At 35, Oliveira’s veteran savvy and submission arsenal make him a perpetual threat, even against undefeated phenoms.

## Betting Snapshot  
- **Topuria**: –425 (DraftKings) | –480 (BetRivers)  
- **Oliveira**: +330 (DraftKings) | +340 (BetRivers)  

As fight night approaches, lines have steadily shifted in favor of the rising Georgian star, reflecting both Topuria’s momentum and the question marks surrounding Oliveira’s chin and cardio against relentless pressure.

With so much at stake—a chance for Topuria to cement his legacy with a title, and for Oliveira to reclaim championship glory—this lightweight clash promises fireworks, strategic grappling exchanges, and potentially fight-ending pivots. Whether you’re backing the unbeaten challenger or banking on the seasoned submission wizard, **UFC 317’s** main event is poised to be a defining chapter in the history of the 155-pound division.  

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

# Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

## Ilia Topuria Profile  
**Age:** 28  
**Country:** Born in Germany, fighting out of Georgia  
**Fighting Style:** Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with growing striking acumen  

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):**  
- **Oct. 26, 2024** – Def. Max Holloway (KO/TKO, R3 1:34)  
- **Feb. 17, 2024** – Def. Alexander Volkanovski (KO/TKO, R2 3:32)  
- **June 24, 2023** – Def. Josh Emmett (Decision – Unanimous, 5 Rnd)  
- **Dec. 10, 2022** – Def. Bryce Mitchell (Submission, R2 3:10)  
- **Mar. 19, 2022** – Def. Jai Herbert (KO/TKO, R2 1:07)  

**Strengths:**  
- **Undefeated Momentum:** A flawless 16-0 professional record, featuring nine first-round finishes, underscores Topuria’s relentless pace and killer instinct early in fights.  
- **Elite Takedown Defense:** Boasting a staggering 93% takedown defense, he frustrates wrestlers and keeps the fight where he wants it—standing or in scramble positions.  
- **Defensive Striking:** His 64% significant strike defense rate is among the division’s best, allowing him to avoid big shots and counter effectively.  

**Weaknesses:**  
- **Striking Output & Accuracy:** At 47% significant strike accuracy, Topuria can be wasteful when he presses forward, potentially opening him to counters from precise strikers.  
- **Championship Experience:** Despite high-profile wins, this will be his first UFC title fight, and the five-round championship pace could test his cardio in deep water.

---

## Charles Oliveira Profile  
**Age:** 35  
**Country:** São Paulo, Brazil  
**Fighting Style:** World-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with growing knockout power  

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):**  
- **Nov. 16, 2024** – Def. Michael Chandler (Decision – Unanimous, 5 Rnd)  
- **Apr. 13, 2024** – Lost to Arman Tsarukyan (Decision – Split, 3 Rnd)  
- **June 10, 2023** – Def. Beneil Dariush (KO/TKO, R1 4:10)  
- **Oct. 22, 2022** – Lost to Islam Makhachev (Submission, R2 3:16)  
- **May 07, 2022** – Def. Justin Gaethje (Submission, R1 3:22)  

**Strengths:**  
- **Submission Arsenal:** With 21 career submission wins (a UFC all-time record), Oliveira is a constant threat on the mat—capable of chaining joint locks and chokes in scrambles.  
- **Striking Efficiency:** His 55% significant strike accuracy and 10 career KOs reveal improved power and precision, allowing him to hurt top-level opponents standing up.  
- **Experience & Fight IQ:** A 45-fight professional résumé, including title runs and high-pressure main events, gives “Do Bronx” the savvy to adapt when things go off script.

**Weaknesses:**  
- **Takedown Defense:** At just 56% takedown defense, he can be forced to wrestle against his will—dangerous against a bully like Topuria.  
- **Chin & Cardio Concerns:** Absorbing heavy shots from power punchers (e.g., Islam Makhachev) and going deep in fights could leave Oliveira vulnerable late in five-round wars.  

---

## Comparative Analysis  
- **Age & Durability:** Topuria’s youth (28 vs. 35) and flawless health give him a durability edge. Oliveira’s mileage and past knockout losses introduce risk in prolonged striking exchanges.  
- **Grappling vs. Wrestling:** Topuria’s takedown defense neutralizes much of Oliveira’s ground game, but Oliveira’s submission creativity still poses danger in any clinch or scramble.  
- **Striking Dynamics:** Topuria applies relentless pressure; Oliveira packs the more accurate punch. If Oliveira can counter effectively and drag the fight to deep waters, he may expose Topuria’s relative inexperience in championship five-round bouts.  

This clash of styles—pressure wrestler versus submission savant—creates a chess match where timing, pace and adaptation will determine who leaves T-Mobile Arena with lightweight gold.  

# Betting Odds and Line Movement

## Current Odds Overview  
As of June 16, 2025, the betting markets have firmly established **Ilia Topuria** as the **favorite** and **Charles Oliveira** as the **underdog** in the UFC 317 main event. Here’s a snapshot of their money-line across six leading sportsbooks:

- **Ilia Topuria (Favorite)**  
  - Caesars: **–400**  
  - FanDuel: **–460**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **–450**  
  - BetRivers: **–480**  
  - DraftKings: **–425**  
  - BetMGM: **–425**  

- **Charles Oliveira (Underdog)**  
  - Caesars: **+275**  
  - FanDuel: **+320**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **+350**  
  - BetRivers: **+340**  
  - DraftKings: **+330**  
  - BetMGM: **+310**  

Topuria’s line averages around –440 at most books, indicating strong confidence from oddsmakers and sharp bettors that his relentless pressure and unblemished 16-0 record will carry him to gold. Oliveira, despite being one of the most decorated submission artists in UFC history, checks in as a +330 to +350 longshot—his most generous offer coming from **BetOnline.ag** at **+350**.

## Line Movement and Notable Swings  
A review of the odds history reveals a steady drift in favor of Topuria, especially over the past two weeks:

- On June 4, **Caesars** opened Topuria at **–380**; by June 16 that had lengthened to **–400**.  
- **FanDuel** moved Topuria from **–400** to as steep as **–530** on June 15, before settling at **–460**.  
- **DraftKings** saw the biggest swing in Topuria’s favor, from **–360** (June 1) to **–440** (June 15) and now **–425**.  

Conversely, Oliveira’s price first ticked upward (more generous for bettors) as underdog interest waned, then trimmed back slightly as value hunters found a soft spot:

- **FanDuel**: **+285** → **+360** → **+320**  
- **BetOnline.ag**: **+280** → **+355** → **+350**  
- **DraftKings**: **+285** → **+340**  

These swings indicate a two-tiered market: early money on Topuria drove his price down sharply, while late bettors looking for value on Oliveira have pulled the underdog off its worst levels.

## Best Sportsbook for Value  
- **For Topuria**: The most attractive line is **–400** at **Caesars**, where you risk $400 to win $100.  
- **For Oliveira**: The top underdog price is **+350** at **BetOnline.ag**, offering $350 profit on every $100 wagered.

Those pursuing maximum return on an upset should lock in Oliveira at BetOnline.ag’s +350 before any further line compression.

## Hypothetical $1,000 Bets & Implied Chances  
- **$1,000 on Topuria at –425**  
  - Profit: **$235**  
  - Total Return: **$1,235**  
  - Implied Win Probability: **~81%**

- **$1,000 on Oliveira at +350**  
  - Profit: **$3,500**  
  - Total Return: **$4,500**  
  - Implied Win Probability: **~22%**

Whether you believe Topuria’s unbeaten ascent or Oliveira’s veteran savvy will prevail, these figures illustrate the risk-reward profiles handily. If you’re chasing the title favorite, a conservative Caesars wager yields modest but highly probable gains. If you’re hunting an upset, BetOnline.ag’s +350 line on Oliveira delivers a life-changing payday should the former champion reclaim glory.

With line movement flattening in recent days, the market seems to be settling—now is the time to make your move before these prices shift again under fight-week action.