Pantoja vs Kara-France Odds & AI Pick | UFC 317 Title Fight

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France fight analysis

Introduction

Get ready for one of the most anticipated Flyweight Title showdowns of 2025, as Champion Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) defends his belt against surging contender Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) on Saturday, June 29, 2025, at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This pivotal headliner on the UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira card will see the Brazillian maestro Pantoja taking on the Kiwi knockout artist Kara-France under the bright lights of Sin City.

• Event: UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira
• Date & Time: Saturday, June 29, 2025 • Main Card (approx. 10:00 PM ET)
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, United States
• Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lb) – Title Fight

The Favorite and the Underdog

According to the latest odds across major U.S. sportsbooks, Alexandre Pantoja enters this fight as a solid favorite, with prices ranging from -235 to -278 (American odds format). The Brazilian champion’s blend of high-level wrestling, slick submission wizardry, and ever-improving striking arsenal makes him a tough puzzle for any flyweight to solve.

On the flip side, Kai Kara-France is very much the underdog, sitting at +200 to +215 on the moneyline. Despite the ‘dog tag, Kara-France has proven time and again he belongs among the division’s elite. Known for his explosive front-leg kicks, heavy-handed boxing, and iron chin, the 32-year-old New Zealander has finished 12 opponents by knockout and secured 13 first-round stoppages in his career.

Stakes and Storylines

For Pantoja, this marks his first title defense since capturing the flyweight strap on December 7, 2024, via a slick second-round submission of Kai Asakura in Rio de Janeiro. He has since remained unbeaten in five consecutive UFC outings, showcasing a career-high 50% significant strike accuracy and a 47% takedown success rate. At 35 years old, Pantoja’s window to cement his legacy is wide open, and his technical MMA approach—marked by 11 submission wins and a near-12½ minute average fight time—makes him a consummate champion.

Kara-France, meanwhile, is on a mission to inject his trademark swagger into title contention. After rebounding from a split decision defeat to reigning champion Brandon Moreno in July 2022, he edged back into title talks with a sensational first-round knockout of former bantamweight king Cody Garbrandt at UFC 296. His aggressive style, combined with a 65% significant strike defense rate and an 88% takedown defense, gives him the tools to frustrate and potentially counter Pantoja at range.

As fight night approaches, this clash of contrasting skill sets—Pantoja’s grappling and submission acumen vs. Kara-France’s explosive striking and pace—sets the stage for a high-stakes chess match with world title glory on the line. Who will emerge victorious and etch their name in flyweight history? Stay locked in as we break down every angle of this epic showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Alexandre Pantoja (Champion)

Age: 35
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA

Recent Form

Pantoja has been on a torrid run, winning his last five UFC bouts in impressive fashion:

• Dec. 7, 2024: Def. Kai Asakura via Submission (R2, 2:05)
• May 4, 2024: Def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (5×5)
• Dec. 16, 2023: Def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (5×5)
• July 8, 2023: Def. Brandon Moreno via Split Decision (5×5)
• July 30, 2022: Def. Alex Perez via Submission (R1, 1:31)

Pantoja’s consistency has vaulted him from perennial contender to reigning flyweight monarch. He’s survived high-pressure striking exchanges, locked down grappling specialists, and showcased a submission arsenal few in the division can match.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (50%): Pantoja lands half of his significant strikes—well above the division average—allowing him to pick his shots and control distance.
• Takedown Offense (47%): Nearly one in two takedown attempts succeed, enabling him to dictate where the fight goes and mix up levels.
• Submission Prowess: With 11 career sub victories, he can finish from top control or scramble, forcing opponents to remain defensively mindful at all times.
• Cardio & Fight IQ: An average fight time of 12:39 shows he can push a relentless pace for three to five rounds, adjusting game plans on the fly.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (68%): Opponents have found some success reversing positions or stifling his takedown attempts, which could open him to counter-strikes if he overcommits.
• Strike Defense (50%): Half of the strikes thrown at him land, suggesting slower head movement and vulnerability to sudden combinations—especially explosive challengers.

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Kai Kara-France (Challenger)

Age: 32
Country: New Zealand
Fighting Style: Kickboxing-based striker

Recent Form

Kara-France has alternated highs and lows over his last five outings but enters UFC 317 on a 1–2 skid following a highlight KO:

• Aug. 17, 2024: Def. Steve Erceg via KO/TKO (R1, 4:04)
• June 3, 2023: Lost to Amir Albazi via Split Decision (5×5)
• July 30, 2022: Lost to Brandon Moreno via KO/TKO (R3, 4:34)
• March 26, 2022: Def. Askar Askarov via Unanimous Decision (5×5)
• Dec. 11, 2021: Def. Cody Garbrandt via KO/TKO (R1, 3:21)

His two knockout wins of high-level opposition showcase his power; his decision losses underline areas for improvement against technical grapplers and volume strikers.

Strengths

• Significant Strike Defense (65%): He successfully blocks or avoids nearly two-thirds of his opponent’s heavy shots, making him a difficult target for high-output fighters.
• Takedown Defense (88%): One of the division’s best—he shuts down wrestling attempts and keeps fights in his preferred striking domain.
• Explosive Power: With 12 KO wins and 13 first-round stoppages on his résumé, Kara-France can end fights abruptly with kicks or overhand rights.
• Chin & Durability: He has absorbed significant punishment and remained dangerous late into fights.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (40%): Landing only two out of five significant strikes leaves too many shots missing, which could play into Pantoja’s counter-striking and grappling entries.
• Takedown Offense (33%): When forced out of his comfort zone, he struggles to secure takedowns and finish clinch exchanges, potentially ceding top position.
• Cardio in Deep Rounds: Although his early bursts are fearsome, sustained pace over five rounds has occasionally slowed his output and power.

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This title fight is a classic stylistic chess match: Pantoja’s precision, wrestling and submission chain-wrestling versus Kara-France’s iron chin, defensive wizardry and knockout dynamite. Each man brings elite tools—and exploitable flaws—to the cage. Who capitalizes? Read on as we dissect every phase of this Flyweight Title spectacular.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

Heading into UFC 317, Alexandre Pantoja is the clear favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Kai Kara-France slots in as the underdog. Below is a snapshot of the most competitive moneylines:

• Alexandre Pantoja (Favorite)
– Caesars: –250
– DraftKings: –265
– BetRivers: –278
– BetMGM: –250
– FanDuel: –265
– BetOnline.ag: –235 ← Most bettor-friendly line for the champion

• Kai Kara-France (Underdog)
– Caesars: +205
– DraftKings: +215 ← Highest payout on the challenger
– BetRivers: +210
– BetMGM: +200
– FanDuel: +200
– BetOnline.ag: +200

Line Differential: On average, Pantoja is installed at roughly –255, implying a strong ~72% chance of victory, while Kara-France’s +205 tag suggests about a 33% shot. The gap of nearly 460 “cents” between favorite and underdog underscores how the betting market views Pantoja’s well-rounded attack and championship experience as a substantial edge.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:
– If you believe in the underdog upset, DraftKings’ +215 on Kara-France yields the highest return.
– For backing the champion, BetOnline.ag’s –235 offers the shallowest juice, maximizing your net profit on a Pantoja wager.

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Line Movement & Market Activity

An examination of each fighter’s odds history reveals subtle but telling shifts:

Alexandre Pantoja

• Caesars opened at –250, dipped to –270 on June 11, then firmed back to –250 by June 16.
• DraftKings moved from –245 → –258 → –250 → –245 → –250, showing early confidence in the champion before leveling.
• BetOnline.ag tightened from –260 (June 6) to –240 (June 15), indicating late action on Pantoja.

Kai Kara-France

• Caesars began at +185, leapt to +215 (June 11) and settled at +205—a swing of 30 points that hints at heavy money chasing the underdog.
• DraftKings alternated between +200 and +210, finally landing at +205, suggesting retailers adjusted to balance book liability.
• BetOnline.ag trimmed Kara-France from +220 to +205, reflecting bullish bets on his striking upside.

Key Takeaway: The most significant moves occurred on the underdog line at Caesars (+185 → +215) and the champion line at BetOnline.ag (–260 → –240). These swings illustrate that both public bettors and sharp money have taken stances on each camp—underdog backers early and champion supporters late.

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Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at today’s best lines:

• $1,000 on Kai Kara-France at +215
– Profit: $2,150
– Total Return: $3,150

• $1,000 on Alexandre Pantoja at –235
– Profit: $425
– Total Return: $1,425

Based on those prices, Pantoja carries roughly a 72% implied probability, while Kara-France sits near 33%. Whether you side with the seasoned champion or bank on the dynamic underdog’s power, the line movement and current odds paint a vivid picture of market sentiment heading into this Flyweight Title clash.