Hermansson vs Rodrigues UFC 317 Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues fight analysis

Event Overview

On Saturday, June 28, 2025, two of the UFC’s most entertaining Middleweights collide at UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira, hosted inside the renowned T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Although not slated as a title fight, the clash between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues carries significant divisional implications: both men are looking to rebound after recent setbacks and re-establish themselves in one of the UFC’s deepest weight classes. This bout is expected to air on the main card, giving fight fans front-row access to a stylistic chess match that pits Hermansson’s veteran savvy against Rodrigues’ explosive power.

• Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Event: UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira
• Bout: Middleweight (185 lb)

Fighters at a Glance

Gregory Rodrigues

• Country: Brazil
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 16-6-0
• Fighting Style: Grappler
• Notable Attributes: 10 Knockout wins, 7 First-Round finishes, 53% Significant Strike Accuracy

Jack Hermansson

• Country: Norway
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 24-8-0
• Fighting Style: MMA All-Rounder
• Notable Attributes: 11 Knockout wins, 6 Submission victories, 56% Significant Strike Defense

Odds and Betting Lines

Heading into fight week, Gregory Rodrigues has emerged as the clear favorite across the major sportsbooks. As of the latest odds aggregation:

• FanDuel: -205
• BetOnline.ag: -185
• BetRivers: -186
• DraftKings: -192

In contrast, Jack Hermansson enters as the underdog:

• FanDuel: +158
• BetOnline.ag: +160
• BetRivers: +148
• DraftKings: +160

Rodrigues’ status as a favorite reflects not only his devastating knockout power (10 of his 16 wins have come by strikes) but also the momentum he built before a fourth-round stoppage loss to Jared Cannonier in February. Hermansson, though slightly older, brings a wealth of experience, having shared the octagon with top contenders like Sean Strickland and Roman Dolidze. His underdog tag (+158 to +160) signals that bookmakers respect Rodrigues’ finishing ability, while also acknowledging that Hermansson’s well-rounded skill set and championship-caliber resume could easily tilt the scales.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup is more than just a bounce-back opportunity. For Rodrigues, a victory cements his status as a rising contender in the Middleweight Division and puts him in striking distance of a top-five opponent. For Hermansson, a win at age 36 defies the narrative of decline and reinforces his position as a perennial gatekeeper who can derail emerging talent.

Expect fireworks on the feet—Rodrigues’ 53% strike accuracy vs. Hermansson’s 56% defense—but don’t overlook the grappling exchanges: Rodrigues boasts a 38% takedown accuracy with an 89% takedown defense rating, while Hermansson counters with 30% takedown accuracy and an 81% defense. This clash of styles—power vs. experience, offense vs. durability—will be one of the most compelling reasons to tune in to UFC 317’s main card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Gregory Rodrigues: The Explosive Grappler

Age: 32
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Grappler with heavy knockout power

Background & Recent Form
Gregory Rodrigues burst onto the UFC scene in June 2021 and quickly amassed a 16-6-0 professional record. In his last five outings, Rodrigues has alternated between dominant finishes and tough setbacks:

• Feb. 2025 vs. Jared Cannonier – Loss (KO/TKO, Round 4, 0:21)
• July 2024 vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Feb. 2024 vs. Brad Tavares – Win (KO/TKO, Round 3, 0:55)
• Aug. 2023 vs. Denis Tiuliulin – Win (KO/TKO, Round 1, 1:43)
• Jan. 2023 vs. Brunno Ferreira – Loss (KO/TKO, Round 1, 4:13)

This pattern illustrates Rodrigues’ penchant for stoppages—seven of his victories come in the first round—and his vulnerability to being finished himself when he overcommits.

Strengths

• Power & Precision: 10 of 16 wins by knockout and a 53% significant strike accuracy make Rodrigues a nightmare on the feet.
• Takedown Defense: An impressive 89% takedown defense rate enables him to keep fights standing, where he punishes opponents.
• Fast Finisher: Seven first-round exits, average fight time of 8:52, underscores his explosive offensive bursts.

Weaknesses

• Durability Concerns: Three of his six losses came via KO/TKO, indicating potential holes in his striking defense (51% significant strike defense).
• Inconsistency Against Top Tier: Losses to Jared Cannonier and Brunno Ferreira suggest trouble when facing elite power strikers.

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Jack Hermansson: The Seasoned Technician

Age: 36
Country: Norway
Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder with strong wrestling base

Background & Recent Form
A UFC veteran since 2016, Jack Hermansson carries a 24-8-0 slate and a wealth of experience against high-caliber opposition. His last five fights demonstrate his gritty, five-round cardio but also expose occasional lapses:

• Feb. 2024 vs. Joe Pyfer – Win (Unanimous Decision, 5 Rounds)
• Dec. 2022 vs. Roman Dolidze – Loss (KO/TKO, Round 2, 4:06)
• July 2022 vs. Chris Curtis – Win (Unanimous Decision)
• Feb. 2022 vs. Sean Strickland – Loss (Split Decision, 5 Rounds)
• May 2021 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan – Win (Unanimous Decision)

Hermansson’s record indicates he thrives in drawn-out grappling battles but can be undone by heavy hitters.

Strengths

• Endurance & Durability: Averages 11:33 fight time, regularly goes the distance in five-rounders.
• Well-Rounded Skill Set: Six submission wins complement 11 knockouts; his 56% strike defense frustrates opponents.
• Experience Factor: Having faced top contenders like Strickland and Dolidze, Hermansson brings veteran savvy to late rounds.

Weaknesses

• Striking Offense: At 45% significant strike accuracy, he lacks the one-punch power to consistently deter elite strikers.
• Takedown Offense: A 30% takedown accuracy means he sometimes fails to capitalize on groundwork opportunities.
• Age-Related Wear: At 36, questions loom about his ability to absorb prolonged heavy shots and recover between exchanges.

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Comparative Analysis

• Striking: Rodrigues holds the edge in power (10 KOs) and precision (53% vs. 45%), but Hermansson’s superior defense (56% vs. 51%) may blunt the Brazilian’s offense.
• Grappling: Rodrigues’ takedown defense (89%) counters Hermansson’s takedown attempts (30%), suggesting few prolonged ground scrambles.
• Cardio & Durability: Hermansson’s five-round experience could play a major role if the fight extends past two rounds, whereas Rodrigues tends to fade after early bursts.

This clash pits Rodrigues’ explosive finishing ability against Hermansson’s seasoned durability and well-rounded game—setting the stage for a classic power-versus-experience showdown at UFC 317.

Odds & Betting Trends

Current Betting Lines

As of June 16, 2025, Gregory Rodrigues is the clear favorite across the board, while Jack Hermansson sits firmly in the underdog role. Here’s how the major sportsbooks line up:

• FanDuel
– Rodrigues: -205
– Hermansson: +158

• BetOnline.ag (Best for Rodrigues)
– Rodrigues: -185
– Hermansson: +160

• BetRivers
– Rodrigues: -186
– Hermansson: +148

• DraftKings (Best for Hermansson)
– Rodrigues: -192
– Hermansson: +160

Difference & Underdog Spotlight
• Rodrigues is a 1.6-to-1 favorite on average, reflecting his devastating knockout power and high takedown defense.
• Hermansson, the 1.6-to-1 underdog, appeals to bettors who believe his veteran savvy and durability can derail Rodrigues’ early offense.
• Best Sportsbook to Back Rodrigues: BetOnline.ag at -185 (smallest favorite margin gives you the highest potential win for a favorite).
• Best Sportsbook to Back Hermansson: DraftKings (and BetOnline.ag) at +160, offering the juiciest payout on the underdog.

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Line Movement & Trends

A close look at the odds history reveals meaningful swings over the past two weeks:

Gregory Rodrigues

• June 1 (FanDuel): -215 → June 16: -205
• June 10 (DraftKings): -198 → June 12: -192 → later June 12: -180

Rodrigues’ line has risen (i.e., become a smaller favorite) from -215 to around -185/-192 at many books. This suggests some money has come in on Hermansson, or sharp bettors taking value on the veteran.

Jack Hermansson

• June 1 (FanDuel): +164 → June 16: +158
• June 6 (BetRivers): +150 → June 16 (BetRivers): still +148
• June 10 (DraftKings): +164 → June 12: +160 → later June 12: +150

Hermansson’s line has improved (become less of an underdog) at some books but worsened at others. The biggest swing was on DraftKings, from +164 down to +150 and back up to +160—a 14-point swing in one week.

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Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

If you wager $1,000 at today’s best lines:

• Backing Gregory Rodrigues at -185 (BetOnline.ag)
– Payout: $1,000 bet returns $1,541 total (your $1,000 + $541 profit)
– Implied Probability: ~65% chance to win

• Backing Jack Hermansson at +160 (DraftKings / BetOnline.ag)
– Payout: $1,000 bet returns $2,600 total (your $1,000 + $1,600 profit)
– Implied Probability: ~39% chance to win

Whether you’re chasing a high-value underdog payout or seeking the relative safety of the favorite, these lines show a clear market split. Rodrigues commands respect as the 65% favorite, while Hermansson offers massive upside at 2.6-to-1. Remember that line movement indicates sharp money is at work—monitor the odds right up until fight time to capture the best value.