UFC 317: Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa Odds & AI Pick

Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa Fight Analysis

Event Details

The heavyweight showdown between Jhonata Diniz and Justin Tafa takes place on Saturday, June 29, 2025, as part of the UFC 317 card headlined by Topuria vs. Oliveira. The bout is slated for 2:00 AM ET (prelims) at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. Fight fans tuning in via pay-per-view or the UFC Fight Pass app can catch this explosive clash on the Preliminary Card, setting the tone for an action-packed evening of elite mixed martial arts.

Fighters at a Glance

| Fighter | Country | UFC Debut | Record (W–L–D) | KO Wins | Sub Wins | First-Rd Finishes | Avg Fight Time | |--------------------|--------------|--------------|----------------|---------|----------|-------------------|----------------| | Jhonata Diniz | Brazil | Apr. 27 2024 | 8–1–0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 08:52 | | Justin Tafa | New Zealand | Oct. 5 2019 | 7–5–0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 05:27 |

Betting Lines & Odds

• Favorite: Jhonata Diniz – various sportsbooks list him around –330 to –340 (American odds).
• Underdog: Justin Tafa – available at +240 to +270 on DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, and BetOnline.ag.

With Diniz installed as a heavy favorite, bettors have been quick to back the Brazilian kickboxer’s crisp striking, whereas Tafa’s underdog tag hints at value for those believing in his raw power and resilience.

Why This Fight Matters

This bout represents a pivotal moment for both men:

• Jhonata Diniz (33, Curitiba, Brazil) exploded onto the UFC scene less than a year ago and has rattled off two straight wins since suffering his only setback—a TKO via doctor’s stoppage against Marcin Tybura in November 2024. Diniz brings a kickboxing base, 79.5-inch reach, and a methodical pace, showcasing exceptional striking accuracy (53%) and stout takedown defense (69%). He’s a finisher—75% of his victories come by knockout, and he’s yet to be tested over three full rounds in the octagon.

• Justin Tafa (31, West Auckland, New Zealand) debuted in late 2019 and possesses explosive one-punch power—every UFC win has come by knockout, including five first-round stoppages. Despite a mixed 7–5 record, Tafa’s ability to land heavy shots early makes him a constant threat. His 54% significant strike accuracy and 47% defense underline his stand-up prowess, though he’s shown vulnerability in grappling exchanges.

The Narrative

• Diniz’s Ascendancy: Riding the momentum of back-to-back victories, Diniz is keen to prove that his rapid rise is no fluke. A win here would vault him closer to top-15 contention in one of the UFC’s most unpredictable divisions.
• Tafa’s Redemption: After dropping two straight, including a 35-second knockout loss to Tallison Teixeira in February, Tafa is desperate to remind fans and matchmakers alike of his finishing instincts. A signature upset would reignite his UFC career and secure a high-profile showdown next.

Conclusion

As the lights dim and the first bell rings in Las Vegas, the key question remains: can Justin Tafa channel his dynamic power and catch Jhonata Diniz off balance, or will Diniz’s technical striking and superior cardio dictate the pace and outcome? This Heavyweight thriller promises fireworks—betting lines favor Diniz, but in MMA, one clean shot can turn a favorite into an underdog in an instant.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

On Saturday, June 29, 2025, Jhonata Diniz and Justin Tafa collide in a pivotal heavyweight showdown on the UFC 317 preliminary card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The bout pitches Diniz’s technical kickboxing and rising trajectory against Tafa’s raw power and knockout pedigree. With Diniz installed as a heavy favorite (–330 to –340) and Tafa holding underdog odds (+240 to +270), this clash promises contrasting styles and a compelling narrative: will Diniz’s measured aggression prevail, or can Tafa’s one-punch explosiveness deliver an upset?

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Jhonata Diniz – The Brazilian Kickboxer

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Brazil (Curitiba)
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer
• Height / Reach: 6'4" (76") / 79.5" arm reach
• UFC Debut: April 27, 2024

Diniz burst onto the UFC scene in spring 2024 and quickly impressed with his technical striking, seven knockout victories, and disciplined approach. He combines a long reach with crisp leg kicks and counter-strikes, making him a difficult target for heavy hitters.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

1. Nov. 16, 2024: Loss vs. Marcin Tybura – TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) – R2, 5:00
2. Aug. 10, 2024: Win vs. Karl Williams – Decision (Unanimous) – R3, 5:00
3. Apr. 27, 2024: Win vs. Austen Lane – KO/TKO – R2, 2:12

After two impressive UFC victories, Diniz suffered his first setback against the seasoned Tybura, conceding a doctor’s stoppage in the second round. He has shown both durability and the ability to adjust, bouncing back with a unanimous decision over Karl Williams.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Technical Striking: 53% significant strike accuracy, sharp counters and leg kicks.
• Takedown Defense: Exceptional 69%, making it difficult to neutralize on the feet.
• Finishing Instincts: 7 KOs, 75% of wins by stoppage; six first-round finishes in career.

Weaknesses:

• Cardio Beyond Two Rounds: 08:52 average fight time suggests a tendency to slow in championship rounds.
• Limited Grappling Offense: 0% takedown accuracy – rarely threatens on the mat.
• Vulnerability to Damage: The doctor’s stoppage loss hints at susceptibility to heavy shots.

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Justin Tafa – The New Zealand Power Puncher

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: New Zealand (West Auckland)
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Height / Reach: 6'0" (72") / 74" arm reach
• UFC Debut: October 5, 2019

Tafa is all about power. Every one of his seven UFC victories has come by knockout, with five inside the opening round. His explosive arsenal makes him a constant threat early on, though opponents have occasionally weathered the storm and exposed lapses in his gas tank.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Feb. 8, 2025: Loss vs. Tallison Teixeira – KO/TKO – R1, 0:35
2. Mar. 23, 2024: Loss vs. Karl Williams – Decision (Unanimous) – R3, 5:00
3. Sept. 9, 2023: Win vs. Austen Lane – KO/TKO – R1, 1:22
4. June 24, 2023: Loss vs. Austen Lane – Could Not Continue – R1, 0:29
5. Feb. 11, 2023: Win vs. Parker Porter – KO/TKO – R1, 1:06

Tafa has oscillated between scorching first-round knockouts and abrupt defeats, most notably a 35-second loss to Teixeira. His last two outings ended in defeat, raising questions about his ability to adapt once early finishes go awry.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• One-Punch Power: 54% significant strike accuracy but each landed shot carries fight-ending potential.
• Fast Starters: 5 first-round finishes, capable of altering the bout’s trajectory in seconds.
• Durable Chin (Occasionally): Survived extended battles against Karl Williams in 2024.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Holes: 47% significant strike defense – susceptible to counters if he overcommits.
• Grappling Deficits: 0% takedown accuracy and only 53% takedown defense; vulnerable in scrambles.
• Cardio Concerns: 05:27 average fight time indicates diminished output beyond early exchanges.

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As these two heavyweights prepare to lock horns, the contrasting profiles set the stage for a classic striker’s duel. Diniz must impose his range and avoid Tafa’s knockout window, while Tafa needs a quick finish or risk being outpointed over distance. Expect fireworks from the opening bell.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of June 16, 2025, the Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa clash features a significant gap in perception between oddsmakers:

• Jhonata Diniz (Favorite):
  • DraftKings: –340
  • BetRivers: –335
  • BetOnline.ag: –330
  • FanDuel: –330

• Justin Tafa (Underdog):
  • DraftKings: +270
  • BetRivers: +240
  • BetOnline.ag: +270
  • FanDuel: +240

This means you must risk $340 at DraftKings to win $100 on Diniz, while a $100 wager on Tafa at +270 would yield $270 in profit. The clear underdog here is Justin Tafa, with his odds ranging from +240 to +270, whereas Jhonata Diniz commands a strong favorite status around –330 to –340.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Analyzing the odds history reveals a modest but noteworthy ebb and flow:

• Jhonata Diniz (DraftKings):
  • June 10: –310
  • June 12 (early): –340
  • June 12 (later): –310

• Justin Tafa (DraftKings):
  • June 10: +250
  • June 12 (early): +270
  • June 12 (later): +250

• BetOnline.ag Movements:
  • Diniz moved from –310 to –330 by June 14
  • Tafa ticked from +260 to +270

These swings indicate a surge of early backers on both fighters: bettors briefly pushed Diniz as low as –340 before a slight retreat, while Tafa peaked at +270 before dipping back. Overall, the market remains confident in Diniz’s striking edge, but there’s still solid support for Tafa’s upset potential.

Betting Payouts & Implied Probabilities

Putting $1,000 down on either man today would yield:

• Betting on Jhonata Diniz (–330 at BetOnline.ag):
  • Payout: ~$1,303 total return ($303 profit)
  • Implied Probability: ~77% chance to win

• Betting on Justin Tafa (+270 at DraftKings or BetOnline.ag):
  • Payout: $3,700 total return ($2,700 profit)
  • Implied Probability: ~27% chance to win

These figures underscore the stark contrast: backing Tafa offers a rich reward but lower likelihood; backing Diniz is far safer but provides a modest payout.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Underdog Value: DraftKings and BetOnline.ag both carry +270 on Justin Tafa, making them the top options for those chasing a big payday.
• Favorite Efficiency: If you lean toward Jhonata Diniz, BetOnline.ag’s –330 line is slightly better than the –340 at other books, squeezing out a few more dollars on a winning ticket.

In summary, the sharpest value on the underdog sits at +270, while the tightest favorite line is –330. Those seeking to maximize potential profit should shop around, but for straightforward best-odds play, DraftKings (for Tafa) and BetOnline.ag (for Diniz) are your go-to sportsbooks.