Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez: Fight Odds & Analysis

Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez Fight Analysis

Introduction

Get ready for an electrifying showdown in the Women’s Flyweight division as Viviane Araujo takes on Tracy Cortez this Saturday, June 28, 2025, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This non-title bout is part of the stacked UFC 317 card headlined by “Topuria vs Oliveira” and is slated to begin at 10:00 PM ET (7:00 PM PT), promising fight fans a thrilling co-main event filled with striking exchanges, grappling battles, and high stakes on the line.

Fight Details

• Event: UFC 317 – Topuria vs Oliveira
• Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Division: Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs)
• Fight Order: Co-Main / Featured Bout
• Start Time: 10:00 PM ET (approximate)

The Favorite and the Underdog

According to current odds compiled from top sportsbooks, Tracy Cortez enters this matchup as the clear favorite, sitting around –265 on FanDuel, BetRivers, and DraftKings. Cortez (11-2-0) has built momentum with an aggressive, pressure-based style, showcasing a 48% significant strike accuracy and a solid 62% takedown defense across her UFC tenure. At 31 years old, the Phoenix native is hungry to rebound after her title-elimination loss to Rose Namajunas and prove she belongs in the Flyweight Top 5.

On the other side, Viviane Araujo is the underdog at approximately +200 odds. A veteran of 19 professional fights (13-6-0), Araujo carries a wealth of experience and four first-round finishes into the cage. The 38-year-old Brazilian boasts a well-rounded game—three knockout victories, four submissions, and an impressive 80% takedown defense—making her a dangerous threat wherever the fight goes. Despite dropping two of her last three bouts, her relentless pace and finishing instincts give her the tools needed to pull off a significant upset.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup represents a crossroads for both athletes:

• Cortez aims to reestablish her win streak and climb back toward title contention after a hard-fought loss to Namajunas. A victory here could push her back into the Top 5 and solidify her standing as one of the division’s most consistent performers.
• Araujo is looking to prove that age and recent setbacks haven’t diminished her finishing power. A win over a surging contender like Cortez would be the biggest of her career and likely vault her into the Top 10 conversation.

Whether you’re backing the strong, grappling-savvy pressure of Tracy Cortez or betting on the seasoned veteran power and submission arsenal of Viviane Araujo, this fight is poised to deliver fireworks. Stay tuned for our full breakdown, including style matchups, key statistics, and expert picks.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Tracy Cortez

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a pressure-based striking attack and slick scrambling defense.

Tracy Cortez made her UFC debut in November 2019 and has quickly become known for her technical striking, relentless pace, and improving grappling mix. Standing 65 inches tall with a 65.5-inch reach, she uses her frame to close distance, land volume striking, and neutralize opponents’ takedowns.

Recent Form

1. Loss vs. Rose Namajunas (July 2024) – Unanimous Decision
2. Win vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Sept. 2023) – Unanimous Decision
3. Win vs. Melissa Gatto (May 2022) – Unanimous Decision
4. Win vs. Justine Kish (Apr. 2021) – Split Decision
5. Win vs. Stephanie Egger (Oct. 2020) – Decision

Cortez enters this fight on a four-fight win streak before running into former champion Rose Namajunas. Her decision victories showcase strong cardio and consistency but also highlight a relative lack of stoppage power.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Striking Accuracy: 48% significant strike accuracy, landing nearly half of her attempts.
  • Takedown Threat: 46% takedown accuracy keeps opponents honest and opens up her striking.
  • Defense: 57% significant strike defense and 62% takedown defense allow her to weather offense and reset.
  • Cardio & Durability: Averaging 16:26 per fight, she’s built to go the distance and finish strong in later rounds.

• Weaknesses:

  • Finishing Instinct: Only 1 KO and 1 submission in 11 wins—she often relies on decisions.
  • Early Fight Urgency: Zero first-round finishes can give fast starters time to get comfortable.
  • Power Output: Lacks one-punch knockout power, which may limit damage against a durable veteran.

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Viviane Araujo

Background

• Age: 38
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Veteran MMA technician with a dangerous submission repertoire, steady striking, and wealth of experience.

Araujo debuted in UFC in May 2019 and brings a well-rounded skill set to the octagon. At 64 inches tall with a 68-inch reach, she often out-reaches opponents and mixes wrestling entries with jiu-jitsu transitions.

Recent Form

1. Win vs. Karine Silva (Nov. 2024) – Unanimous Decision
2. Loss vs. Natalia Silva (Feb. 2024) – Unanimous Decision
3. Win vs. Jennifer Maia (Oct. 2023) – Unanimous Decision
4. Loss vs. Amanda Ribas (Mar. 2023) – Decision
5. Loss vs. Alexa Grasso (Oct. 2022) – Unanimous Decision

Araujo has alternated between key wins and setbacks against high-level opponents. Her four first-round finishes in 19 fights underline her finishing ability, but recent decision losses suggest challenges maintaining pace against younger challengers.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Finishing Diversity: 3 knockouts, 4 submissions, and 4 first-round finishes—she can win on the feet or ground.
  • Takedown Defense: Elite 80% takedown defense frustrates wrestlers and keeps her in striking range.
  • Experience: Facing top contenders for years, she knows how to adjust mid-fight and exploit mistakes.

• Weaknesses:

  • Takedown Offense: 43% accuracy puts pressure on her striking to win rounds.
  • Striking Pace: Matches Cortez at 48% accuracy and 57% defense but averages slightly shorter fights (15:29), hinting at a slower work rate.
  • Age & Durability: At 38, she may struggle with the relentless pressure and volume striking Cortez applies over three rounds.

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Matchup Edge:
The striking metrics between Cortez and Araujo are near identical, but Cortez’s superior takedown offense and youth give her a slight edge in dictating where the fight takes place. Araujo’s submission prowess and takedown defense make her dangerous if the fight hits the mat—but she must inject urgency early or risk fading under sustained pressure.

Odds Breakdown and Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

Here’s a snapshot of the latest head-to-head lines for Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez across four major sportsbooks:

• Tracy Cortez (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: –265
  • BetOnline.ag: –210
  • BetRivers: –240
  • DraftKings: –230

• Viviane Araujo (Underdog)

  • FanDuel: +200
  • BetOnline.ag: +180
  • BetRivers: +180
  • DraftKings: +190

The gap between Cortez at –265 (FanDuel) and Araujo at +200 (FanDuel) represents a 465-point swing, reinforcing Cortez as the clear favorite and Araujo as the live dog with upset potential.

Best Sportsbook Value

• For backing the favorite, BetOnline.ag’s –210 on Cortez offers the best juice among major books.
• For backing the underdog, FanDuel’s +200 on Araujo is the most generous line available.

Line Movement and Historical Fluctuations

Tracy Cortez

• Opened around –235 at most shops on June 11.
• BetOnline.ag: swung from –240 → –235 → –225 → back to –240 as public money cycled in.
• DraftKings: ranged between –218 and –245, peaking at –245 on June 15 before settling at –230.
  These shifts show growing confidence in Cortez, with sharp money cushioning her into a stronger favorite.

Viviane Araujo

• Debuted around +180 on BetOnline.ag and BetRivers.
• Peaked at +205 on BetOnline.ag (June 10), then drifted back toward +190/+195 on DraftKings.
• FanDuel held firm at +200, suggesting a steady core of underdog backers.
  Araujo’s odds movement indicates sporadic support from bettors looking for value, but not enough to flip her underdog status.

Payout Scenarios and Implied Probabilities

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at today’s lines:

• $1,000 on Cortez (–265) returns $1,377 total. Implied win chance: ~73%.
• $1,000 on Araujo (+200) returns $3,000 total. Implied win chance: ~33%.

Whether you’re riding the steam on Cortez or chasing the plus-money value on Araujo, understanding these odds and line shifts is crucial to finding the best edge before fight night.