Max Griffin vs Chris Curtis Fight Breakdown & AI Pick

Max Griffin vs Chris Curtis fight analysis

Fight Details

Mark your calendars for Saturday, July 12, 2025, when the UFC returns to Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira. Although this showdown opens the Preliminary Card, don’t let the undercard status fool you—Max Griffin vs Chris Curtis promises fireworks as two veteran welterweights battle for momentum in one of the division’s most competitive weight classes.

• Date: July 12, 2025
• Start Time (local): 7:00 PM ET (Prelims begin at 7:00 PM ET; Griffin vs Curtis slated as one of the opening bouts)
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
• Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), UFC Fight Pass (International)

Overview

This welterweight clash pits the seasoned grappler‐striker hybrid Chris “Warmaster” Curtis (31-12-0) against the relentless kickboxing specialist Max “Pain” Griffin (20-11-0). Both men are cage veterans with a combined 85 professional appearances, and they’re desperate to halt recent skid marks on their records:

• Chris Curtis arrives at 37 years old with a 1-4 run over his last five UFC outings. Known for heavy hands and relentless pressure, Curtis has finished 17 foes by knockout but remains dangerous on the mat thanks to 83% takedown defense.
• Max Griffin, at 39, is no stranger to wars. His last five fights feature three split decisions and a submission loss—proof that “Pain” always stays competitive. Griffin’s 9 knockouts and 41% takedown accuracy make him a dual threat, but his 70% takedown defense could be tested by Curtis’s wrestling.

Betting Landscape

Oddsmakers have installed Chris Curtis as a strong favorite across the board, with moneyline odds hovering around -320 (implying a 76% implied win probability). Max Griffin sits comfortably in the underdog role at approximately +250, offering value for bettors willing to back the veteran striker to pull off the upset.

• Favorite: Chris Curtis (–320 to –275 across major books)
• Underdog: Max Griffin (+220 to +270 across major books)

Why This Matters

A win here could pivot a fighter’s trajectory in the stacked welterweight division:

• Curtis needs a return to the win column to reassert himself as a top-15 contender and revive hopes of a ranked opponent next.
• Griffin must capitalize on this opportunity to avoid the looming threat of release; a high-profile upset would electrify the division and cement his relevance.

Expect a high‐pace, high‐intensity battle where Curtis will press forward with heavy leather and clinch wrestling, while Griffin looks to utilize his kickboxing arsenal—particularly leg kicks and counter‐strikes—to keep the bigger man at bay. Whoever dictates the range and enforces their game plan will likely walk away victorious.

Stay tuned as we dive deeper into the tactics, styles, and key metrics that will decide this pivotal welterweight tilt on July 12!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Max Griffin vs Chris Curtis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Chris “Warmaster” Curtis

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder with a heavy emphasis on forward pressure and knockout power
• Record: 31–12–0 (17 KO wins, 1 submission)

Curtis made his UFC debut on November 6, 2021, after accumulating a wealth of experience on the regional scene. Standing 5’10” with a 75.5” reach, he combines relentless boxing with tight clinch work. Despite his veteran status, Curtis remains dangerous in all phases—he defends 83% of takedown attempts and absorbs only 46% of opponent strikes.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. 2025-01-11: Loss vs Roman Kopylov (KO/TKO, R3, 4:59)
2. 2024-04-06: Loss vs Brendan Allen (Split Decision, R5)
3. 2024-01-20: Win vs Marc-André Barriault (Split Decision, R3)
4. 2023-06-10: Loss vs Nassourdine Imavov (Could Not Continue, R2)
5. 2023-04-08: Loss vs Kelvin Gastelum (Unanimous Decision, R3)

Curtis has struggled to string wins together, dropping four of his last five. His sole recent victory came via a razor-thin split decision, highlighting both his toughness and the narrow margins he’s been operating in.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Power Punching: 17 knockouts underscore a 52% significant strike accuracy—one of the highest figures in the division.
• Defensive Wrestling: 83% takedown defense neutralizes most grapplers, forcing opponents to engage in striking exchanges.
• Clinch Control: Heavy top pressure and ground-and-pound make him tough to handle against the cage.
• Vulnerabilities:
  • Offensive Wrestling: 0% takedown accuracy leaves him with limited grappling options when opponents circle away.
  • Durability Concerns: Recent KO loss to Kopylov and stoppage vs. Imavov expose a fading chin when burned up on points.

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Max “Pain” Griffin

Background

• Age: 39
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Kickboxing specialist with evolving grappling underpinnings
• Record: 20–11–0 (9 KO wins, 2 submissions)

Griffin debuted in August 2016 and has become known for high-volume leg kicks, crisp combinations, and an unyielding gas tank. At 5’11” with a 76” reach, he blends distance striking with opportunistic takedowns—landing 41% of his shots to the mat.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. 2024-12-07: Loss vs Michael Chiesa (Submission, R3, 1:56)
2. 2024-02-10: Win vs Jeremiah Wells (Split Decision, R3)
3. 2023-07-01: Loss vs Michael Morales (Unanimous Decision, R3)
4. 2022-10-29: Win vs Tim Means (Split Decision, R3)
5. 2022-03-26: Loss vs Neil Magny (Split Decision, R3)

Griffin has alternated wins and losses in five straight, with four of those going to decision. His resilience is evident—he has never been stopped inside the distance in his UFC career.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Striking Versatility: 49% significant strike accuracy paired with 58% defense allows him to both land and evade effectively.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 12:55 indicates he can maintain output deep into fights without gassing.
• Grappling Offense: 41% takedown success adds a secondary threat, keeping opponents wary of the mat game.
• Vulnerabilities:
  • Knockout Power: Only 9 KOs—strikes may lack fight-ending pop against granite-jawed pressure fighters.
  • Fence Work: Takedown defense at 70% is respectable but could be tested by Curtis’s relentless clinch entries.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics
Curtis will look to smother Griffin with forward pressure and heavy hands, forcing a brawl that plays to his power. Griffin, in turn, will rely on movement, leg kicks, and well-timed takedowns to disrupt Curtis’s rhythm. The clash of Curtis’s knockout pedigree versus Griffin’s volume striking and cardio sets the stage for a compelling tactical battle in Nashville.

Odds and Betting Line History

Current Betting Odds

As of June 30, 2025, oddsmakers have installed Chris Curtis as a strong favorite over Max Griffin:

• Chris Curtis: –320 (Caesars, FanDuel –310, BetMGM –275, BetUS –330, BetOnline.ag –330, BetRivers –305, DraftKings –325)
• Max Griffin: +250 (Caesars), +230 (FanDuel, BetRivers), +220 (BetMGM), +267 (BetUS), +270 (BetOnline.ag), +260 (DraftKings)

Key takeaways:

• Favorite: Chris Curtis (implied win probability ~76%).
• Underdog: Max Griffin (implied win probability ~29%).
• Best sportsbook for underdog value: BetOnline.ag at +270.
• Best sportsbook for favorite backing: BetMGM at –275 (smallest juice).

Line Movement & Swings

A look at the odds history shows significant line shifts over the past week:

Chris Curtis

• Opened around –260 on June 23 at BetOnline.ag
• Drifted to –285/–290 midweek as casual money leaned on Griffin
• Sharpened back to –320 (Caesars) and briefly touched –340 at BetUS on June 30, suggesting sharp bettors backing Curtis late

Max Griffin

• Initially listed near +220 at major books (Caesars, BetMGM)
• Climbed as high as +280 on BetOnline.ag on June 30, reflecting underdog support
• Settled back to the +250–+270 range by late Monday

These swings indicate a mix of casual underdog bets driving Griffin’s line up, followed by sharp money reloading on Curtis as fight week factors (age, pressure style) came into focus.

Potential $1,000 Payouts & Implied Chances

If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter at the current best prices:

• Chris Curtis (–320) at Caesars

  • Wager $1,000 to win $312.50 (payout $1,312.50 total)
  • Implied win probability: ~76%

• Max Griffin (+270) at BetOnline.ag

  • Wager $1,000 to win $2,700 (payout $3,700 total)
  • Implied win probability: ~27%

Best Betting Strategy

• Value on Underdog: Griffin’s price at +270 (BetOnline.ag) is the most generous across major books. If you believe his volume striking and cardio can stifle Curtis’s power, this odds level offers strong upside.
• Safe Play on Favorite: Curtis at –275 (BetMGM) yields a slightly better return than heavier lines, while still backing the consensus pick.

Monitor line movement through Wednesday and Thursday—significant late shifts often reveal where the sharp money lands, and can expose the final pockets of value before fight night.