Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura UFC Odds & AI Pick

Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura fight analysis

Introduction

The preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira on Saturday, July 12, 2025, will showcase a pivotal Women’s Flyweight clash between veteran contender Lauren Murphy and rising Brazilian talent Eduarda Moura. Scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM UTC (5:00 PM CDT) at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, this bout pits gritty experience against explosive finishing ability. With the flyweight division in constant flux, the winner of this encounter could vault themselves into the divisional Top 15 conversation—and set up a key stepping-stone toward higher-profile matchups down the line.

Eduarda Moura enters as a heavy favorite across the board, with American sportsbooks listing her odds around –650 (FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars). The 30-year-old Brazilian has compiled an impressive 11-1-0 professional record since debuting in 2023, boasting nine finishes (four knockouts, five submissions) and a jaw-dropping 100% takedown defense in the UFC. A decorated jiu-jitsu specialist, Moura’s aggressive grappling combined with developing striking has overwhelmed opponents like Veronica Hardy and Montserrat Conejo, earning her a reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous submission threats.

Opposite her stands 39-year-old American veteran Lauren Murphy, listed as the underdog at approximately +420 (FanDuel, BetMGM, BetOnline.ag). Murphy holds a seasoned 16-6-0 ledger, including eight knockouts and one submission victory. A former title challenger who has faced elite competition—Jessica Andrade, Valentina Shevchenko and Miesha Tate among them—Murphy brings a well-rounded, physically imposing style to the Octagon. Known for her iron chin, relentless pressure, and ability to land power shots, she has proven adept at extending fights to decision—her average fight time sits at 14:35, compared to Moura’s 10:19.

Fight Context & Stakes

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira
• Date: July 12, 2025
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee
• Card: Preliminary (Event Stage IV)
• Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight (125 lb)

Murphy, who made her UFC debut in August 2014, aims to halt Moura’s meteoric rise and re-establish herself among the division’s elite. A win would serve as redemption for Murphy’s two-fight skid, including a split decision loss to Denise Gomes and a unanimous decision setback against Jessica Andrade. For Moura, a victory over such a respected veteran validates her rapid ascent and showcases her ability to handle high-pressure, cage-control veterans. This matchup is a litmus test for both fighters: can Murphy’s veteran savvy and power withstand Moura’s submission prowess and pace?

As the prelims kick off in Nashville, fight fans around the globe will be tuned in to see whether Eduarda Moura continues her dominance or if Lauren Murphy can defy the odds and engineer one of the most significant upsets of the night. Expect a high-intensity chess match on the feet, potential scrambles on the ground, and critical grappling exchanges that could decide who emerges with the momentum—and rankings—on their side.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Lauren Murphy (United States)

Background

• Age: 39
• Country: United States (Anchorage, Alaska)
• Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder with heavy hands and solid wrestling base
• UFC Record: 16-6-0

Lauren “Lucky” Murphy is a veteran of the Women’s Flyweight division, having debuted in the UFC in August 2014. Over nearly a decade in the Octagon she has faced top-tier opponents—Valentina Shevchenko, Jessica Andrade and Miesha Tate—showcasing her durability and well-rounded skill set. Standing 65 inches tall with a 67-inch reach, Murphy relies on heavy power strikes and relentless pressure to break opponents down.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jan. 21, 2023: Loss vs. Jessica Andrade (Decision – Unanimous)
• July 16, 2022: Win vs. Miesha Tate (Decision – Unanimous)
• Sept. 25, 2021: Loss vs. Valentina Shevchenko (KO/TKO, R4)
• June 12, 2021: Win vs. Joanne Wood (Decision – Split)
• Oct. 24, 2020: Win vs. Liliya Shakirova (Submission, R2)

Murphy is coming off a two-fight skid, most recently a unanimous decision loss to Andrade. Despite setbacks, she continues to demonstrate boxing prowess and the ability to control distance against high-level foes.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Knockout power (8 KO wins) makes her dangerous in every exchange
  • High durability and cage IQ allow her to survive early onslaughts
  • Solid takedown defense (70%) helps keep the fight standing
  • Experience versus elite competition gives her strategic adaptability

• Weaknesses:

  • Striking accuracy (39%) lags behind division average, leading to missed opportunities
  • Slower pace (avg. fight time 14:35) can be a liability against fast starters
  • Limited submission pedigree (1 submission win) makes her vulnerable on the mat
  • Age (39) may impact cardio and recovery against younger opponents

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Eduarda Moura (Brazil)

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil (Riachuelo, Sergipe)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with evolving striking
• UFC Record: 11-1-0

Eduarda “Debinha” Moura burst onto the UFC scene in November 2023. At 66 inches tall with a 67-inch reach, she blends aggressive grappling entries with developing striking, forcing opponents into scramble situations where her submission game shines.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Nov. 16, 2024: Win vs. Veronica Hardy (Decision – Unanimous)
• June 8, 2024: Loss vs. Denise Gomes (Decision – Split)
• Nov. 4, 2023: Win vs. Montserrat Conejo (KO/TKO, R2)

Moura suffered a narrow split-decision loss to Denise Gomes but rebounded emphatically against Veronica Hardy, showcasing improved striking defense and control.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Perfect takedown defense (100%) neutralizes wrestling threats
  • High finishing rate: 9 of 11 wins by KO/TKO or submission (7 first-round finishes)
  • Striking accuracy (50%) and defense (53%) indicate sharp offensive timing
  • Submission arsenal (5 wins) makes her a constant threat on the ground

• Weaknesses:

  • Inexperience (only 3 UFC bouts) could be exposed by veteran savvy
  • Average fight time (10:19) suggests early gas tank depletion if fight drags on
  • Take-down accuracy (35%) is solid but may struggle against elite wrestlers who press pace
  • Striking defense still below elite levels—vulnerable to power punches

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Both fighters bring contrasting arsenals to the Octagon: Murphy’s veteran power and resilience versus Moura’s submission prowess and finishing urgency. This clash of styles will test whether experience and iron chin can withstand relentless grappling pressure and elite-level submission threats. Expect a critical battle for position, with each athlete seeking to assert their game plan from the opening bell.

Odds & Betting History Breakdown

Current Betting Odds

• Eduarda Moura (Favorite)
  • FanDuel: –650
  • BetMGM: –650
  • BetUS: –600
  • DraftKings: –625
  • BetRivers: –670
  • BetOnline.ag: –600
  • Caesars: –650

• Lauren Murphy (Underdog)
  • FanDuel: +420
  • BetMGM: +475
  • BetUS: +425
  • DraftKings: +455
  • BetRivers: +460
  • BetOnline.ag: +425
  • Caesars: +460

Eduarda Moura is a commanding favorite across the board, with consensus odds clustering between –600 and –650. In contrast, Lauren Murphy is the clear underdog, priced from +420 up to +475. The widest gap (over 1,100 points) underlines the market’s confidence in Moura’s grappling prowess and finishing ability.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at each book’s movement reveals subtle shifts in market sentiment:

• Eduarda Moura

  • BetMGM: Opened around –625, then shortened to –650
  • BetUS & BetOnline.ag: Drifted between –600 and –650 before settling at –600 (BetUS) and –600 (BetOnline.ag)
  • DraftKings: Moved from –625 → –650 → back to –625

• Lauren Murphy

  • BetMGM: Started at +450, climbed to +475
  • BetUS: Shifted from +450 down to +425
  • DraftKings: Fluctuated between +455 and +470, currently +455
  • BetOnline.ag: Swung from +465 → +425 → +475

While no book has shown a dramatic reversal, these modest swings suggest occasional sharp money on both sides—slightly boosting Murphy’s price at BetMGM (+475) and briefly softening Moura’s price to –600 on BetUS and BetOnline.ag.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 on either athlete at today’s best available lines, your returns would be:

• Eduarda Moura at –600 (BetUS / BetOnline.ag)
  • Total Return: $1,167
  • Implied Chance: ~86%

• Lauren Murphy at +475 (BetMGM)
  • Total Return: $5,750
  • Implied Chance: ~17%

These figures highlight the stark contrast: backing the favorite yields a modest profit, while a successful underdog bet pays handsomely but reflects a lower probability.

Best Betting Value

• For the Favorite:
  • BetUS and BetOnline.ag both offer –600, the most generous price on Moura.

• For the Underdog:
  • BetMGM stands out with +475 on Murphy, giving fans the highest upside on the upset.

In summary, the market has firmly established Moura as the likely winner, but for those seeking value and a big payday, Murphy at BetMGM is the clear choice. Whether you play it safe with the overwhelming favorite or chase the underdog’s upside, the mismatched lines promise an intriguing betting puzzle ahead of this Women’s Flyweight showdown.