Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Odds & Picks

Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Fight Analysis

The welterweight clash between Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim is set to light up the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, as part of the main card of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira on Saturday, July 12, 2025. While the official broadcast window opens at 8:00 PM ET, this highly anticipated bout is expected to hit the Octagon around 9:30 PM ET (01:00 UTC on July 13), showcasing two radically different styles in the 170-pound division.

Event Details

• Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025
• Time (Local): Main card begins at 8:00 PM ET, Thompson vs Bonfim approximately 9:30 PM ET
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
• Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), UFC Fight Pass (International)

Betting Spotlight: Favorite vs. Underdog

Entering this matchup, Brazilian submission specialist Gabriel Bonfim holds the clear edge in the eyes of the sportsbooks. Across major U.S. bookmakers like Caesars, BetMGM, BetOnline, BetUS, and DraftKings, Bonfim is installed as the -400 to -425 favorite, reflecting:

• A 17-1-0 professional record with 13 submission victories
• Exceptional grappling metrics: 77% takedown accuracy and 73% takedown defense
• Fast finishes (8 first-round stoppages) and an average fight time under seven minutes

On the other side, veteran karate stylist Stephen Thompson, ranked #12 in the welterweight division, comes in as the +300 to +330 underdog. Thompson’s resume speaks volumes—17-8-1 with 8 KOs, a dazzling kicking arsenal, and near-decade-plus UFC tenure—but recent setbacks have tempered expectations:

• A three-fight skid, including a submission loss to rising star Shavkat Rakhmonov
• Declining takedown defense (63%) and strike defense (55%) against younger, heavier hitters
• A significant age gap (42 vs. 27) and a longer average fight duration (14:30) compared to Bonfim’s 6:48

Why This Fight Matters

1. Style Contrast: Thompson’s point-fighting karate meets Bonfim’s relentless Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Will “Wonderboy” keep distance and land sharp counters, or will Bonfim close the gap, drag Thompson to the mat, and impose his grappling will?
2. Career Trajectories: A win propels Bonfim toward top-15 contention in a crowded welterweight landscape, while Thompson fights to halt a career-defining losing skid and stay relevant in the title picture.
3. Age vs. Youth: At 42, Thompson relies on experience and timing; Bonfim, 27, brings youth, athleticism, and surging confidence after submitting high-caliber foes like Khaos Williams.

As fight night approaches, odds have shifted in Bonfim’s favor, peaking at -425 (DraftKings). Those looking to back an experience-driven upset can find Thompson at +330 or better. Whether you lean toward Bonfim’s grappling assault or Thompson’s seasoned striking, this bout promises fireworks and a clear window into each fighter’s path in the ultra-competitive welterweight division. Keep reading as we break down their skills, tactics, and potential game plans in the sections ahead.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson

Background

• Age: 42
• Hometown: Greenville, South Carolina, USA
• Fighting Style: Point-karate striker with a heavy emphasis on kicking combinations and lateral movement
• UFC Debut: February 4, 2012
• Record: 17-8-1

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Oct. 5, 2024 vs. Joaquin Buckley – Loss by KO/TKO (Round 3, 2:17)
2. Dec. 16, 2023 vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov – Loss by Submission (Round 2, 4:56)
3. Dec. 3, 2022 vs. Kevin Holland – Win by KO/TKO (Round 4, 5:00)
4. Dec. 18, 2021 vs. Belal Muhammad – Loss by Decision (Unanimous)
5. July 10, 2021 vs. Gilbert Burns – Loss by Decision (Unanimous)

Despite his storied career and highlight-reel kicking arsenal, Thompson has struggled to string together wins of late, going 1-4 over his last five outings.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (46%): Thompson lands a high percentage of his significant strikes, thanks to pinpoint distance management and feints.
• Elusive Movement: His lateral footwork and switch-stance karate base frustrate opponents and help him control the pace.
• KO Power: With 8 career knockouts, he still packs a heavyweight-caliber kick to the head and body.
• Experience: Over a decade in the UFC means he’s faced every style – from wrestlers to elite strikers – and knows how to adapt mid-fight.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense (55%): He absorbs more significant strikes than most top welterweights, opening him up to heavy counters.
• Grappling Vulnerability: A takedown defense of 63% and just 42% takedown accuracy leave him susceptible to wrestlers and aggressive grapplers.
• Durability Concerns: Recent KO and submission losses suggest fading chin and gas tank compared to his prime.
• Aging Curve: At 42, reaction time and recovery have slowed against younger, faster welterweights.

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Gabriel Bonfim

Background

• Age: 27
• Hometown: Brasília, Brazil
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker with elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu, heavy on submissions
• UFC Debut: January 21, 2023
• Record: 17-1-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Feb. 15, 2025 vs. Khaos Williams – Win by Submission (Round 2, 4:58)
2. July 13, 2024 vs. Ange Loosa – Win by Decision (Unanimous)
3. Nov. 4, 2023 vs. Nicolas Dalby – Loss by KO/TKO (Round 2, 4:33)
4. July 29, 2023 vs. Trevin Giles – Win by Submission (Round 1, 1:13)
5. Jan. 21, 2023 vs. Mounir Lazzez – Win by Submission (Round 1, 0:49)

Bonfim enters on a 4-1 run, showcasing a dominant ground game and improving striking chops since his lone TKO loss to Nicolas Dalby.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (77%) & Defense (73%): Elite level wrestling control lets him dictate where the fight takes place.
• Submission Prowess: 13 of his 17 wins are by submission, with 8 first-round finishes underlining his fast starts on the ground.
• Strike Defense (65%): Solid head movement and pressure limit opponents’ clear striking lanes.
• Pace & Aggression: An average fight time of 6:48 highlights his tendency to pursue finishes early and punish opponents before they find a rhythm.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (44%): A middling rate suggests that longer, technical strikers may evade his power punches and kicks.
• KO Power: Only 3 knockouts to his name; relies heavily on grappling transitions rather than one-punch knockout threats.
• Experience Level: With just two years in the UFC, he hasn’t faced the same caliber of veteran strikers as Thompson.
• Pressure Fighting Risks: Overcommitting to takedowns against an elusive counter-striker like Thompson could leave him open to sharp counters.

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This stylistic clash pits Thompson’s veteran karate kicking game and counter-striking IQ against Bonfim’s relentless grappling assault and submission artistry. In the sections ahead, we’ll explore how each man’s toolkit can exploit the other’s vulnerabilities and project possible game plans for fight night.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Gabriel Bonfim (Favorite): –400
  • Available at Caesars, BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS
• Stephen Thompson (Underdog): +310
  • Available at Caesars, BetMGM, BetUS, BetOnline.ag
• Best Underdog Price: +330 at DraftKings
• Best Favorite Price: –400 (tie among several books)

Bonfim’s status as a heavy favorite (–400) underscores the sportsbooks’ confidence in his grappling-first approach, while Thompson’s +310 tag reflects his uphill climb as a 42-year-old veteran facing a younger submission specialist.

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Line Movement & Big Swings

A look at the odds history reveals a clear drift toward Bonfim:

• June 24 (BetOnline.ag): Bonfim opened around –350, Thompson at +275
• June 27–29: Bonfim moved from –360 to –395 across major books; Thompson slid from +285 to +310
• As of June 30: Bonfim peaked at –425 on DraftKings; Thompson hit +330 on DraftKings

These shifts indicate heavier betting action on Bonfim, pushing his odds more negative as the event approaches. Thompson’s line has similarly grown longer, reflecting a steady decline in public money and sharp-money support.

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Implied Probabilities & Payouts

• Gabriel Bonfim (–400): ~80% implied win probability
  • A $1,000 wager returns $1,250 total ($250 profit + $1,000 stake)
• Stephen Thompson (+310): ~24% implied win probability
  • A $1,000 wager returns $4,100 total ($3,100 profit + $1,000 stake)
• Best Thompson Bet (+330 at DraftKings):
  • $1,000 returns $4,300 total ($3,300 profit + $1,000 stake)

Whether you back the dominant favorite for a modest payday or chase the sizable underdog payout, these odds illustrate the stark contrast in sportsbooks’ expectations.

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Picking the Best Sportsbook

• For Bonfim Bettors:
  • Shop around Caesars, BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, or BetUS to lock in –400 rather than the steeper –425 on DraftKings.
• For Thompson Supporters:
  • DraftKings leads the way at +330. Other major books cap out at +310, meaning DraftKings offers a 20-cent boost per dollar.

Line shoppers can squeeze extra value—especially on the underdog—by comparing odds across these five premier U.S. sportsbooks.

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What the Movement Tells Us

• Increased Confidence in Bonfim: Sharp money and public bettors alike have leaned into Brazil’s up-and-coming grappler, driving his odds down 75 cents in just one week.
• Again Faith Needed for Thompson: Thompson’s line widening signals skepticism about his ability to out‐strike or avoid takedowns from a physical younger opponent.

As we close in on fight night, odds may continue to shift. If you’re wagering, remember that even small price differences across books can substantially impact your final payout—especially on a five-figure bet.