Talbott vs Lima Odds & AI Pick | UFC 317 Preview

Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima fight analysis

Event: UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira
Date & Time: Saturday, June 28, 2025 – 22:00 UTC (6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT)
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Card Placement: Early Preliminary Card
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lb)

Introduction

Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas promises fireworks from top to bottom when the Bantamweight division opens the early prelims with an intriguing stylistic clash. In one corner stands Felipe Lima, the Brazilian striker riding an unblemished 14-1 professional ledger and opening as a clear betting favorite (around –180 across major sportsbooks). Across the Octagon awaits American knockout artist Payton Talbott, carrying a 9-1 record and enticing underdog odds of roughly +150.

These two rising prospects will kick off the action on the UFC 317 early preliminary card—airing worldwide at 22:00 UTC—looking to make a statement in one of the UFC’s most talent-rich divisions. Lima, known for his diverse power and uncanny ability to mix leather with kicks, has already demonstrated finishing prowess in five first-round flurries and holds a solid 45% significant strike accuracy. Talbott, however, boasts a staggering 56% accuracy and seven knockout wins on his resume, showcasing one-punch power capable of turning any contest into a highlight reel.

Venue & Stakes

Held at the iconic T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas Strip, this bout may not headline the pay-per-view, but it carries enormous stakes for both men. A win for Lima would build on his back-to-back UFC finishes and vault him into immediate contention for top-15 rankings. Conversely, Talbott—fresh off a tough unanimous decision loss in his most recent outing—needs a spectacular showing to rebound and prove his stock belongs firmly in championship conversations.

Betting Landscape

Across leading bookmakers, bettors have firmly backed Lima, whose odds have fluctuated modestly from –160 to –185 as public money pours in on his striking pedigree and grappling defense (over 83% takedown defense). Meanwhile, Talbott’s line has drifted from +104 early market releases to current figures near +150, reflecting both the perceived gap in defensive metrics (Talbott allows 55% significant strikes) and his underdog trajectory. This line movement underscores the sharp money’s confidence in Lima’s all-around game, yet Talbott’s explosive power and youth offer a classic upset narrative.

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By the time the cage door locks behind them, all eyes will be on which stylistic formula prevails: Lima’s technical precision and takedown savvy, or Talbott’s raw power and finishing instincts. In the following sections, we’ll break down striking exchanges, grappling battles, and key moments that could decide this Bantamweight grudge match. Stay tuned as we dissect the paths to victory for each athlete and uncover where the betting value truly lies.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Background & Fighting Style

Felipe Lima (Blue Corner)

• Age: 27
• Hometown: Coari, Brazil
• Division: Bantamweight (135 lb)
• Style: Striker with an emphasis on powerful leg kicks and precision boxing
• Physicals: 5′6″ height, 68″ reach, 146 lb walk-around weight
• UFC Debut: June 22, 2024

Payton Talbott (Red Corner)

• Age: 26
• Hometown: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
• Division: Bantamweight (135 lb)
• Style: Explosive knockout artist—willing to engage and trade heavy strikes
• Physicals: 5′10″ height, 70.5″ reach, 135.5 lb walk-around weight
• UFC Debut: November 18, 2023

Recent Form

Felipe Lima has made an immediate impact since entering the UFC in mid-2024, riding a 2-fight winning streak:

1. Dec. 14, 2024 – Def. Miles Johns by Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
2. Jun. 22, 2024 – Def. Muhammad Naimov by Submission (Triangle, Round 3, 1:15)

Prior to his UFC tenure, Lima accumulated a 12-0 record—showcasing finishing versatility with 4 KOs and 3 submissions.

Payton Talbott has gone 3-1 in the Octagon, demonstrating dynamite power early and learning valuable lessons in defeat:

1. Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss to Raoni Barcelos by Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
2. Jun. 29, 2024 – Def. Yanis Ghemmouri by TKO (Punches, Round 1, 0:19)
3. Mar. 23, 2024 – Def. Cameron Saaiman by TKO (Punches, Round 2, 0:21)
4. Nov. 18, 2023 – Def. Nick Aguirre by Submission (Rear-Naked Choke, Round 3, 0:58)

Talbott’s lone setback came against slick wrestler Barcelos, exposing gaps in his defensive striking and grappling.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Felipe Lima

• Strengths:
  • Striking Defense (73%) – Lima avoids significant strikes at an elite rate, making him tough to tag cleanly.
  • Takedown Defense (83%) – Excellent sprawl and underhooks minimize wrestling exchanges.
  • Submission Savvy – Three career subs, including an adept triangle finish under fatigue.
• Weaknesses:
  • Average Finishing Heat – Only 5 first-round stoppages in 14 wins suggests a measured pace.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (45%) – Below the divisional average, indicating potential volume deficits.
  • Durability Under Fire – Has shown willingness to stand and trade, which can backfire against heavy hitters.

Payton Talbott

• Strengths:
  • Power Punching (56% Accuracy) – Lands more than half of his significant strikes, a top-tier figure in bantamweight.
  • Finishing Rate – Seven KOs in nine wins; one of the best knockout ratios in the division.
  • Aggression & Pace – Quick to press forward and force scrambles, overwhelming opponents early.
• Weaknesses:
  • Striking Defense (45%) – Allows a high volume of significant strikes, vulnerable to counters.
  • Takedown Defense (76%) – Acceptable but exploitable for well-versed wrestlers like Lima.
  • Cardio Concerns – Average fight time is 9:20; tends to gas if the bout stretches past two rounds.

This clash presents a classic striker vs. striker narrative with contrasting approaches: Lima’s technical counter-striking and grappling literacy against Talbott’s raw knockout power and forward tempo. As these 135-pounders collide, the keys will be whether Lima can temper Talbott’s early onslaught and drag him into deeper waters—or if Talbott detonates a highlight-reel finish before Lima can find his rhythm.

Odds & Betting Trends

Current Betting Lines

As of the latest updates across major sportsbooks, Felipe Lima is firmly installed as the betting favorite while Payton Talbott slogs in as the underdog:

• Felipe Lima

  • Caesars: –180
  • FanDuel: –174 (best favorite line)
  • BetRivers: –182
  • BetOnline.ag: –179

• Payton Talbott

  • Caesars: +150
  • FanDuel: +136
  • BetRivers: +143
  • BetOnline.ag: +154 (best underdog line)

On average, Lima sits around –179, while Talbott commands roughly +146. Lima’s shorter odds reflect the market’s confidence in his all-around game, whereas Talbott’s upside power and finishing upside make him the bettor’s long shot.

Line Movement & Big Swings

Examining the line history reveals some notable volatility, especially at BetOnline.ag:

• Felipe Lima opened at –124 on June 16, rocketed out to –185 by later that evening, and has since settled in the –178 to –182 range.
• Payton Talbott began at +104 that same afternoon, spiked to +160, then drifted to +154 as the sharp money shifted.

These wide swings—Lima moving nearly 60 cents from opener to peak and Talbott gaining over 50 cents—indicate heavy early action on both sides as bettors chased perceived value before public money hammered the favorite.

Payout & Implied Probability

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at their current best lines, here’s what you’d see:

• Betting on Lima at –174 (FanDuel):

  • Profit: $574.71
  • Total Return: $1,574.71
  • (Implied Win Probability: ~63%)

• Betting on Talbott at +154 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Profit: $1,540
  • Total Return: $2,540
  • (Implied Win Probability: ~39%)

While Lima’s payout is slimmer due to his status as a favorite, Talbott’s underdog odds offer a far larger upside on a single event—perfect for those seeking a high-reward play.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• Favorite Play: FanDuel’s –174 on Lima provides the most favorable entry for a standard favorite wager, shaving a few cents off the juice compared to Caesars or BetRivers.
• Underdog Play: BetOnline.ag’s +154 on Talbott is the standout underdog line, maximizing potential profit if the explosive Talbott pulls off an upset.

In summary, Lima remains the more likely winner according to the market, but Talbott’s line movement and sizable payoff make him an enticing contrarian option. Tail your choice to your risk tolerance: a lean towards Lima for steady, modest returns, or jump on Talbott for that rare bantamweight upset with serious payout potential.