Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

## Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Fight Analysis

The heavyweight clash between **Jhonata Diniz** and **Alvin Hines** is set to ignite the octagon on **Saturday, June 28, 2025**, live from the **T-Mobile Arena** in **Las Vegas, Nevada**. Slated for the **Early Preliminary Card** of UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira, the bout is scheduled to kick off at **22:30 UTC** (roughly **6:30 PM ET / 3:30 PM PT**), and will be broadcast on UFC Fight Pass. Fight fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating this intriguing matchup as the Brazilian favorite squares off against the American debutant.

### Fight Overview

- **Event:** UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira  
- **Date & Time:** June 28, 2025 – Early Prelims at 22:30 UTC  
- **Venue:** T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV  
- **Broadcast:** UFC Fight Pass  

### The Favorite: Jhonata Diniz

A **-300** to **-310** favorite across major sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars), **Diniz** enters this bout with a formidable **8-1-0** professional record. Known for his explosive striking and early finishes, the 33-year-old kickboxer from Curitiba, Brazil has recorded **7 knockouts**, including **6 first-round stoppages**, and boasts an average fight time of just **8 minutes, 52 seconds**. Since making his UFC debut in April 2024, Diniz has demonstrated precision in his striking (53% significant strike accuracy) and resilience in defense (50% significant strike defense), while maintaining a perfect takedown defense (69%). On paper and on the odds boards, he’s expected to handle Hines quickly—either by overwhelming stand-up offense or forcing a late rally.

### The Underdog: Alvin Hines

All roads lead to tough tests when you debut in the UFC, and **Alvin Hines** embraces that challenge as a **+230** to **+249** underdog at most books (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers). Hailing from Deer River, Minnesota, the 33-year-old heavyweight is making his octagon debut with an unblemished 0-0-0 record. Though he lacks professional MMA experience in the UFC, Hines brings an unquantified blend of power and athleticism. Without any official striking or grappling metrics in the promotion, he represents an **unknown commodity**—a wild card that could test Diniz’s veteran savvy if he survives the early onslaught.

### What’s at Stake

- **For Diniz:** Reinforcing his position as a rising contender in the heavyweight division with another emphatic finish. A victory here keeps him on a fast track toward ranked opponents and opens the door to a possible top-15 debut.
- **For Hines:** A successful UFC debut against a proven killer would be a career-defining upset and immediately earn him respect (and perhaps a contract bonus). A loss, however, would underscore the steep learning curve facing UFC newcomers.

As the countdown to UFC 317 continues, the contrasting trajectories of **Jhonata Diniz** and **Alvin Hines** set the stage for a classic heavy-hitting mismatch. Will Diniz’s veteran precision and finishing ability prevail, or can Hines shock the world with a stunning debut? Fans won’t want to miss a second of this heavyweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

## Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

As we build up to the heavyweight tussle between **Jhonata Diniz** and **Alvin Hines**, it’s critical to understand what each man brings into the octagon. Below is a detailed look at their backgrounds, recent form and key strengths and vulnerabilities.

### Jhonata Diniz Profile

**Age:** 33  
**Country:** Brazil  
**Fighting Style:** Kickboxing  
**UFC Record:** 8-1-0

#### Recent Form  
- Nov. 16, 2024 vs Marcin Tybura – **Loss** (TKO, Doctor’s Stoppage, R2)  
- Aug. 10, 2024 vs Karl Williams – **Win** (Unanimous Decision, R3)  
- Apr. 27, 2024 vs Austen Lane – **Win** (KO/TKO, R2)  

Diniz burst onto the UFC scene in April 2024 and quickly established himself as one of the division’s most dangerous early-round finishers. After stopping Lane in just over two minutes and following up with a decision victory over Williams, he ran into veteran Marcin Tybura in November and suffered his first career defeat via doctor’s stoppage.

#### Strengths  
- **Explosive Power:** 7 of his 8 career wins have come by knockout, including six first-round stoppages.  
- **Striking Efficiency:** 53% significant strike accuracy, making him one of the more precise heavyweights.  
- **Defensive Awareness:** 50% significant strike defense and 69% takedown defense, showcasing smart footwork and takedown avoidance.  
- **Finishing Instinct:** Average fight time of 8:52 reflects his ability to close distance and extract finishes early.

#### Vulnerabilities  
- **Limited Grappling Offense:** 0% takedown accuracy suggests a virtually non-existent wrestling attack—Diniz must keep the fight upright.  
- **Questionable Durability:** The doctor’s stoppage loss to Tybura raises questions about his ability to withstand heavy elbows or strikes in the clinch.  
- **Cardio Depth:** While early bursts are his hallmark, a three-round pace against elite technicians could expose his gas tank.

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### Alvin Hines Profile

**Age:** 33  
**Country:** United States  
**Fighting Style:** (Pro Debut – Style Unspecified)  
**UFC Record:** 0-0-0

#### Recent Form  
- **No prior UFC bouts** – Making his octagon debut on June 28, 2025

As an unheralded heavyweight prospect out of Deer River, Minnesota, Hines enters the UFC with an unblemished professional record on regional circuits. While no official UFC statistics exist for him, his late addition to this card indicates confidence from matchmakers in his raw power and athletic upside.

#### Strengths  
- **Unknown Upside:** Hines’s complete lack of UFC data makes him a wild card—opponents cannot fully game-plan for his tools.  
- **Youthful Conditioning:** Debuting fighters often bring peak cardio and relentless pace, catching veterans off-guard.  
- **Heavy Hands:** Oddsmakers’ respect (+230 to +249 underdog) implies legitimate knockout power.

#### Vulnerabilities  
- **Inexperience at Elite Level:** Stepping in against a seasoned finisher like Diniz is a tall order; cage rust or nerves could hamper performance.  
- **Undefined Skill Set:** Without measurable striking or grappling percentages, Hines’s technical gaps (defense, takedowns, ground transitions) remain untested.  
- **Game-Plan Execution:** Debutants often struggle to implement strategy under UFC lights—expect potential pacing issues or lapses in defense.

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In this heavyweight showdown, Diniz’s proven finishing ability and precision striking clash with Hines’s unknown athletic arsenal and debutant energy. For bettors and fight fans, the question becomes: will Diniz’s veteran savvy and knockout prowess prevail, or will Hines shock the world with a disciplined debut performance?  

## Odds Overview & Historical Line Movement

As fight night approaches, the betting markets have settled on clear favorites and underdogs for **Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines**. Below we break down the current odds, review significant line swings, and illustrate potential payouts if you were to wager $1,000 on either fighter.

### Current Betting Odds

- **Jhonata Diniz** (Favorite)  
  - Range: **–300** to **–310**  
  - Best Price: **–299** (BetOnline.ag)  
- **Alvin Hines** (Underdog)  
  - Range: **+230** to **+249**  
  - Best Price: **+249** (BetOnline.ag)

Across major books—FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars and BetRivers—Diniz consistently sits between –300 and –310, making him a strong favorite with implied win probabilities in the mid-70% range. Hines is priced between +230 and +249, marking him as a true long shot (roughly 29% implied chance).

**Best Sportsbook to Back Diniz:** BetOnline.ag (–299)  
**Best Sportsbook to Back Hines:** BetOnline.ag (+249)

### Line Movement & Trends

A look at the pre-fight odds history reveals notable shifts:

- **Jhonata Diniz**  
  - Early on BetOnline.ag (June 16): **–650**  
  - Rapid move to as short as **–180** (June 17) as early sharp bets poured in  
  - Steady drift back to **–299** as the public balanced action across the card  
  - DraftKings line tightened from **–218** (June 22) to **–305** (June 24), signaling heavy late money on Diniz  

- **Alvin Hines**  
  - Opened at **+425** to **+450** on BetOnline.ag (June 16) as an unproven debutant  
  - Collapsed to **+155** by June 19 as smart money tested the line  
  - Rebounded to **+249** by fight week, reflecting some late public enthusiasm for the underdog  
  - DraftKings saw Hines slide from **+180** (June 22) to **+245** (June 24), indicating a surge in Diniz wagers  

Overall, the swings suggest sharp early bettors found value on both sides—loading up on Hines as a massive underdog, then pivoting heavily to Diniz as the favorite. By fight week, the favorite’s price stabilized while Hines remains a tempting long shot.

### Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you placed a **$1,000** bet today:

- **On Diniz at –300** (BetMGM, Caesars):  
  - **Profit:** $333  
  - **Total Payout:** $1,333  
  - **Implied Win Probability:** ~75%  

- **On Hines at +249** (BetOnline.ag):  
  - **Profit:** $2,490  
  - **Total Payout:** $3,490  
  - **Implied Win Probability:** ~29%  

Whether you back the Brazilian knockout artist at a modest return or chase a high-upside payday on the American debutant, understanding where to shop for the best odds and how those lines have moved gives you an edge. Good luck, and may your parlay hit the mark on fight night!