Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

Mark your calendars for Saturday, June 28, 2025, when the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, plays host to an electrifying welterweight clash between Niko Price and rising star Jacobe Smith. Slated for the early preliminary card at 10:30 PM ET / 7:30 PM PT, this matchup kicks off the evening’s action at UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira, promising fireworks right from the opening bell.

Venue and Timing

• Event: UFC 317 – Topuria vs Oliveira
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, United States
• Date & Time: June 28, 2025, Early Prelims at 10:30 PM ET / 7:30 PM PT

Fighters and fight fans alike will flood into the iconic T-Mobile Arena—a venue celebrated for hosting some of MMA’s most memorable nights—with the atmosphere already crackling by the time Price and Smith step into the Octagon.

The Contenders

Jacobe Smith (Blue Corner)

• Undefeated Record: 10-0-0
• Finishes: 8 KOs, 7 first-round stoppages
• UFC Debut: January 11, 2025
• Hometown: Muskogee, Oklahoma
• Style: Freestyle striker with a 71% significant strike accuracy and 88% takedown success

Jacobe Smith has stormed through the welterweight division since his UFC debut, dispatching Preston Parsons via a first-round knockout in merely 1:13. The 29-year-old’s blend of precision striking, relentless pressure, and gas-tank cardio has quickly made him one of the most dangerous prospects on the roster.

Niko Price (Red Corner)

• Professional Record: 16-8-0
• Finishes: 10 KOs, 3 submissions
• UFC Debut: December 31, 2016
• Hometown: Cape Coral, Florida
• Style: Unorthodox brawler known for wild exchanges, 43% significant strike accuracy, and a knack for stirring highlight-reel moments

Veteran Niko Price brings nearly a decade of UFC experience into this bout. Despite setbacks against the likes of Robbie Lawler and Themba Gorimbo, Price remains a perennial fan favorite for his explosive power and unpredictable style. At 35, he is hungry to reestablish himself in the division and derail Smith’s meteoric rise.

Betting Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Jacobe Smith at approximately -1600 (FanDuel)
• Underdog: Niko Price at roughly +750 (FanDuel)

Smith’s rapid ascent and flawless record have made him the heavy betting favorite. Price, meanwhile, offers significant value for bettors willing to wager on his experience and one-punch knockout upside.

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This early prelim showdown sets the tone for UFC 317, pitting a flawless phenom against a seasoned veteran. Will Smith’s precision and power continue to overwhelm, or can Price unleash the veteran’s magic and pull off a massive upset? Stay tuned—this fight promises to be a high-octane curtain-raiser.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Jacobe Smith – The Undefeated Powerhouse

Age: 29 | Country: United States (Muskogee, OK) | Fighting Style: Freestyle Striker

Background & Recent Form
Jacobe Smith burst onto the UFC scene in January 2025 and quickly established himself as a top prospect. His professional record sits at a perfect 10-0-0, with 8 wins by knockout—7 of those coming in the first round. Although he has just one UFC bout to his name (a 1:13 first-round KO of Preston Parsons), Smith’s résumé outside the Octagon is equally fearsome: five consecutive first-round stoppages highlight his heavy hands, lightning reflexes, and killer instinct.

Strengths

• Elite Striking Accuracy (71%): Smith lands more than seven out of ten significant strikes he throws, overwhelming opponents before they can mount offense.
• Explosive Power & Pace: With a 70-second average to find the finish in stoppage victories, he never lets foes settle into the fight.
• Bulldog Takedown Offense (88%): Should the striking exchange stall, Smith converts almost nine out of ten takedown attempts, demonstrating impressive wrestling for a striker.
• Cardio & Fight IQ: Despite his knockout focus, Smith’s gas tank and fight IQ allow him to mix levels and stay composed when the finish doesn’t come immediately.

Weaknesses

• Unproven Ground Defense: A 0% takedown defense suggests he has faced few wrestlers; how he handles elite grapplers remains a question mark.
• Moderate Striking Defense (53%): While potent on offense, he absorbs nearly half the significant strikes thrown at him—an experienced power puncher like Price could exploit this.
• Submission Game: With zero career submissions, Smith may lack nuance on the mat if the fight stalls on the ground.

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Niko Price – The Veteran Brawler

Age: 35 | Country: United States (Cape Coral, FL) | Fighting Style: Unorthodox Freestyle

Background & Recent Form
A UFC mainstay since December 2016, Niko Price carries a 16-8-0 record built on thrilling bouts and highlight-reel knockouts. His last five fights span three defeats (Temba Gorimbo, Robbie Lawler, Philip Rowe) and two unanimous decision victories (Alex Morono, Alex Oliveira). Known as “The Hybrid,” Price’s unpredictability and wild exchanges have made him both a fan favorite and a risky wager.

Strengths

• Explosive Power (10 KOs): Price has ended 62% of his wins by knockout, capable of flattening foes with a single shot.
• Durability & Heart: Despite facing elite strikers, he has shown resilience—bouncing back from early KOs to grind out decision wins.
• Submission Savvy (3 Subs): Unlike Smith, Price can threaten submissions, adding complexity to ground scrambles.
• Takedown Defense (53%): He defends more than half the takedown attempts, making him difficult to ground and pound.

Weaknesses

• Inconsistent Striking Accuracy (43%): He lands fewer than half of his significant strikes, often missing wild swings.
• Low Takedown Offense (30%): Price’s wrestling is functional but not a reliable path to victory, limiting his ability to dictate where the fight goes.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities (49% Sig Strike Def.): He absorbs over half of his opponent’s significant strikes, making him susceptible to heavy hitters like Smith.
• Aging Attributes: At 35, his reflexes and recovery may lag behind the younger Smith, especially in a high-octane early prelim setting.

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Matchup Outlook
Smith brings youth, precision, and finishing prowess against Price’s veteran savvy, one-punch power, and grappling versatility. If Smith lands early, Price’s glass jaw could crack under pressure. Conversely, if Price weathers the storm and drags the fight into deep waters, his diverse finishing arsenal and takedown defense could frustrate the rookie. This stylistic clash—undefeated phenom versus seasoned brawler—sets the stage for a riveting welterweight showdown.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Jacobe Smith (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: -1600
  • Caesars: -2000
  • DraftKings: -1800
  • BetMGM: -1400 ← Best value on the favorite
  • BetOnline.ag: -1800
  • BetRivers: -1667

• Niko Price (Underdog)

  • FanDuel: +750
  • Caesars: +1000 ← Top pick for underdog bettors
  • DraftKings: +1000 ← Also excellent
  • BetMGM: +775
  • BetOnline.ag: +900
  • BetRivers: +950

Jacobe Smith is a heavy favorite across the board, with current lines ranging from -1400 (BetMGM) to -2000 (Caesars). Niko Price sits firmly on the underdog side, with the juiciest payouts at +1000 on Caesars and DraftKings.

Who’s the Underdog? Who’s the Favorite?

• Favorite: Jacobe Smith
  Smith’s perfect 10-0 record and devastating finishing rate have pushed him into overwhelming favorite status.
• Underdog: Niko Price
  Price’s veteran savvy and one-punch power earn him respect in the odds, but he remains a significant underdog versus the unbeaten phenom.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Favorite (Smith): BetMGM at -1400 offers the shallowest juice on Smith, meaning slightly better returns on your risk.
• For Underdog (Price): Caesars or DraftKings at +1000 are the clear winners. A $1,000 wager here returns $2,000 total if Price scores the upset.

Line Movement and Big Swings

1. Smith’s Line Movement

   • Early lines at FanDuel and BetOnline.ag hovered around -1600.
   • Caesars initially opened at -1400, then plunged to -2000 as heavy action flooded in.
   • DraftKings moved from -1600 to -1800, while BetMGM held firm at -1400—the softest juice on Smith.

2. Price’s Line Movement

   • FanDuel opened around +750, briefly dipped to +680 before settling back at +750.
   • Caesars and DraftKings both started +800 / +900 and climbed to +1000.
   • BetOnline.ag’s line swung between +900 → +800 → +1000 → +900, illustrating bettors chasing the underdog.

The most dramatic swing occurred on Caesars where Smith’s odds crashed from -1400 to -2000 in under 48 hours. Price’s best bump came on Caesars and DraftKings, climbing to +1000, indicating sharp money on the upset.

Payout Scenarios

• Betting Jacobe Smith

  • At -1600, a $1,000 bet wins $62.50 profit (returns $1,062.50 total).
  • At -1400 (BetMGM), a $1,000 bet wins $71.43 profit (returns $1,071.43 total).

• Betting Niko Price

  • At +1000 (Caesars/DraftKings), a $1,000 bet wins $1,000 profit (returns $2,000 total).
  • Even at +750, a $1,000 stake nets $750 profit (returns $1,750 total).

Implied Win Probabilities

• Jacobe Smith: Mid-90% range
• Niko Price: Single-digit percentage

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With Smith commanding overwhelming favorite status and Price offering eye-popping underdog value, the odds tell two stories: one of a flawless phenom expected to steamroll newcomers, and one of a veteran with the power to pull off a massive upset. Whether you back the favorite at minimal juice or chase the underdog for a double-your-money payday, understanding the line movement and shopping for the best odds will be key to maximizing your return.