Mitch Ramirez vs Mike Davis UFC Odds & Prediction

Mitch Ramirez vs Mike Davis Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, July 12, 2025, fight fans will turn their attention to Nashville’s renowned Bridgestone Arena for the UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira Preliminary Card, and one of the most intriguing matchups under the bright lights is Mitch Ramirez vs Mike Davis. Scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM UTC (5:00 PM local time), this Lightweight clash features a clear favorite in Mike Davis (–900 to –1,000 across major sportsbooks) taking on the daring underdog Mitch Ramirez (+525 to +650), with each man aiming to climb the divisional ladder and make a statement early in the evening.

Mike Davis, hailing from Hudson, United States, carries an 11-3-0 professional record into this bout, including 7 knockouts and 2 submissions, showcasing his all-around finishing ability. Since making his UFC debut in April 2019, Davis has earned a reputation as a heavy hitter who can end fights abruptly, which explains why Caesars and DraftKings list him as such a prohibitive favorite. Despite a setback in his most recent outing—a unanimous decision loss to Fares Ziam in February—Davis remains a top-tier prospect in the division, blessed with a 72.5-inch reach, a sturdy 155.5-pound frame, and a knockout rate that demands respect from every opponent.

On the opposite side of the Octagon stands Mitch Ramirez, an emerging force with an 8-2-0 record, highlighted by 5 knockouts, 2 submissions, and an astonishing 75% first-round finish rate. Although Ramirez made his UFC debut only in March 2024, he wasted no time electrifying audiences with rapid-fire striking and relentless pressure, tallying an average fight time of just over eight minutes across his career. Standing at 71 inches tall with a 71-inch reach, Ramirez brings a relentless pace and impeccable takedown accuracy (100% in UFC competition) to challenge Davis’s striking advantage.

While Davis is heavily favored to secure another emphatic victory—his odds hovering around –900 suggest a significant disparity in public expectation—Ramirez offers lucrative value as a +600 underdog. Bettors drawn to high-reward scenarios will note Ramirez’s penchant for early stoppages and his ability to nullify opponents through explosive takedowns and ground control. Conversely, risk-averse gamblers may lean toward Davis, whose power striking and experience in five-round settings create a textbook blueprint for success.

As the Preliminary Card opener unfolds in Music City, both fighters have everything to gain: Davis seeks to reassert his status as a top-ten contender, while Ramirez aims to spring the upset and announce himself as a legitimate threat in the Lightweight division. With contrasting styles—Davis’s raw knockout power versus Ramirez’s high-octane grappling—and starkly different odds lines, this bout promises to deliver a high-stakes, high-action affair that sets the tone for the night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mitch Ramirez vs Mike Davis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Mike Davis: The Heavy Hitter

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA with a heavy emphasis on power striking and gritty wrestling
• Physical Attributes: 6’0” (72 in) height, 155.5 lb fighting weight, 72.5 in reach, 41 in leg reach
• UFC Debut: April 27, 2019
• Overall Record: 11-3-0 (7 KOs, 2 submissions)

Recent Form
Over his last five outings, Davis has alternated between emphatic finishes and competitive decisions:

1. Feb 2025: Loss vs Fares Ziam – Unanimous Decision (3 rd round, 5:00)
2. Mar 2024: Win vs Natan Levy – Submission (2 nd round, 1:43)
3. Oct 2022: Win vs Viacheslav Borshchev – Unanimous Decision (3 rd round, 5:00)
4. Jan 2021: Win vs Mason Jones – Decision (3 rd round, 5:00)
5. Oct 2019: Win vs Thomas Gifford – KO/TKO (3 rd round, 4:45)

Strengths

• Finishing Power: 64% of wins by knockout; Davis carries one-punch stoppage capability into every exchange.
• Experience & Durability: Four UFC campaigns under his belt, showing he can weather early storms and adapt late.
• Wrestling Base: Though his official takedown numbers aren’t public, Davis has shown the ability to mix level changes to set up power shots and avoid extended grappling scrambles.

Weaknesses

• Susceptible to Volume Strikers: In fights where opponents maintain a high pace and varied attack (striking and grappling), Davis has been out-landed and worn down over three rounds.
• Questionable Cardio at Threshold: His only UFC decision loss came after three full rounds, hinting that if he fails to secure a finish early, he may lag behind in strike differential and pace.
• Grappling Defense: While never dominated, he has shown vulnerability against slick submission artists who pressure him on the mat.

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Mitch Ramirez: The High-Octane Underdog

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA with a relentless wrestling and ground-and-pound approach
• Physical Attributes: 5’11” (71 in) height, 155.5 lb fighting weight, 71 in reach, 42.5 in leg reach
• UFC Debut: March 16, 2024
• Overall Record: 8-2-0 (5 KOs, 2 submissions)

Recent Form
Ramirez has only one UFC appearance to date—a tough debut against veteran Thiago Moises—but his broader résumé features a string of first-round finishes on the regional scene:

1. Mar 2024: Loss vs Thiago Moises – KO/TKO (3 rd round, 0:15)
2. Pre-UFC (2021–2023): Seven straight wins, six by first-round stoppage against regional foes and Contender Series opponents

Strengths

• Takedown Mastery: 100% takedown accuracy in UFC competition; every level change results in a trip to the mat.
• Fast Finisher: 75% of career wins come inside the first round; his aggressive start often catches opponents cold.
• Cardio & Pace: An average fight time of 8:15 reflects both his willingness to engage constantly and his conditioning to push throughout three rounds.
• Striking Efficiency: 42% significant strike accuracy shows he lands with intent, choosing quality over volume.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 36% of opponent significant strikes land, indicating holes in head movement or footwork against seasoned punchers.
• Inexperience at UFC Level: One fight in the Octagon, and it ended via knockout—Ramirez has yet to prove himself over a full three-round distance against top-caliber foes.
• Grappling Defense Unknown: With 0% takedown defense recorded, there’s little data on how he handles elite wrestlers countering his shots.

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Matchup Outlook
Davis’s raw power and veteran savvy clash with Ramirez’s relentless wrestling onslaught. If Davis can keep the fight standing and sap Ramirez’s energy with heavy shots, he’ll likely emerge victorious. Conversely, if Ramirez enforces his takedowns early and maintains top pressure, he could smother Davis’s offense and earn a decisive stoppage or dominant decision. This stylistic contrast underpins the intrigue of this Preliminary Card highlight in Nashville.

Odds & Line Movement Breakdown

Current Betting Odds

As of June 30, 2025, the market paints a stark contrast between the two Lightweights:

• Mike Davis (Favorite)

  • Caesars: –900
  • BetUS: –800
  • DraftKings: –1000
  • BetOnline.ag: –800

• Mitch Ramirez (Underdog)

  • Caesars: +600
  • BetUS: +525
  • DraftKings: +650
  • BetOnline.ag: +575

Across major sportsbooks, Davis is a prohibitive favorite with odds ranging from –800 to –1000, indicating heavy public and sharp money backing. Conversely, Ramirez sits as a sizable underdog between +525 and +650, offering significant upside for risk-tolerant bettors.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Ramirez: DraftKings at +650 delivers the highest potential payout.
• For Davis: BetUS and BetOnline.ag both list –800, yielding the most favorable juice for the favorite.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at each book’s odds history reveals subtle but telling shifts:

• Mike Davis

  • Caesars remained steady at –900.
  • BetUS slipped from –900 to –800, suggesting some late support for the underdog.
  • DraftKings moved from –950 to –1000, then back to –1000, reflecting heavy early favorite money.
  • BetOnline staggered between –900, –950, –900, finally easing to –800.

• Mitch Ramirez

  • Caesars held firm at +600.
  • BetUS dropped from +575 to +525, indicating money on Davis early, then rebounded.
  • DraftKings climbed from +625 to +650, as underdog tickets pushed Ramirez’s payout higher.
  • BetOnline oscillated +600 → +650 → +600 → +575, mirroring broader market indecision.

Key Swing: Ramirez’s line on DraftKings improved by 25 points (from +625 to +650), while Davis’s worst-case line softened by 100 points on BetUS/BetOnline (from –900 to –800). These swings underscore a degree of confidence in Ramirez’s upside and some hesitation around Davis’s absolute dominance.

Payout & Implied Chances

If you were to wager $1,000:

• Betting Mike Davis at –800 (BetUS/BetOnline.ag):

  • Payout: $1,125 total ($1,000 stake + $125 profit)
  • Implied Probability: ~89%

• Betting Mitch Ramirez at +650 (DraftKings):

  • Payout: $1,650 total ($1,000 stake + $650 profit)
  • Implied Probability: ~13%

While Davis commands roughly an 89–90% implied chance of victory, Ramirez sits around 12–15%. The wide gap explains the lopsided lines and highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of backing the underdog.

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By targeting +650 on DraftKings for Ramirez or –800 on BetUS/BetOnline.ag for Davis, bettors can maximize their expected return relative to current market pricing. Whether you favor the overwhelming favorite or seek a lucrative upset, understanding these line movements and payout scenarios is crucial for crafting a savvy UFC wager.