Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista UFC 321 Odds & AI Pick

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Fight Analysis

Event Overview

The highly anticipated Bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista is set to light up the main card of UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane on Saturday, October 25, 2025. The bout is scheduled to begin at 18:00 UTC (local time) inside the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. As one of the featured matchups on the main card, this contest promises fireworks and pivotal implications for the division’s title picture.

The Contenders

• Favorite:
  • Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0), ranked #2 in the UFC Bantamweight standings. Known for his enviable grappling pedigree, relentless pace, and pinpoint striking accuracy (57% significant strike accuracy), Umar enters this fight as the overwhelming favorite across every major sportsbook, with American odds between -420 and -480.
• Underdog:
  • Mario Bautista (16-2-0), ranked #8 in the division. A dynamic submission artist with six career submission wins and a respectable striking output (49% accuracy), Bautista is listed at +330 to +350 on the moneyline. Though he enters as the underdog, his finishing instincts—five first-round stoppages—mean he can never be counted out.

Key Storylines

1. Resume & Momentum:

   • Nurmagomedov is riding momentum following a unanimous decision victory over former title challenger Cory Sandhagen in August 2024. Despite a lone blemish—a unanimous decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili in January 2025—Umar’s well-rounded skill set and superior takedown defense (79%) make him a consensus pick.
   • Bautista rebounded from his June 2025 defeat to Patrick Mix with a split-decision win over former champion José Aldo in October 2024. His path is clear: continue to prove his mettle against top-tier grapplers and work his way back into title contention.

2. Styles Make Fights:

   • Umar’s wrestling base and relentless pressure contrast sharply with Mario’s more submission-oriented, counter-striking approach. Can Bautista manage distance, land takedown attempts of his own (33% success rate), and avoid Nurmagomedov’s ground-and-pound? Or will Umar’s takedown defense and high work rate dominate the action?

3. UFC Betting Implications:

   • With Nurmagomedov installed as an overwhelming favorite, bettors must weigh value on the underdog versus safety on the chalk pick. A modest wager on +330 (Bautista) could yield substantial returns if an upset materializes, while Nurmagomedov at -435 (BetRivers) represents lower risk but slimmer profit.

This Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista showdown encapsulates everything fans love about the UFC: elite grappling, technical striking, and high stakes inside one of the world’s premier fight venues. Whether you’re a bettor hunting value or a fan seeking elite-level bantamweight action, this fight is not to be missed.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Umar Nurmagomedov Profile

Age: 29
Country: Russia (Republic of Dagestan)
Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded grappling and striking)
Record: 18-1-0

Recent Form

• Jan. 2025: Decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili (Unanimous, 5R)
• Aug. 2024: Win over Cory Sandhagen (Decision – Unanimous, 5R)
• Mar. 2024: Win vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Decision – Unanimous, 3R)
• Jan. 2023: KO/TKO win vs. Raoni Barcelos (Round 1 – 4:40)
• Jun. 2022: Win vs. Nate Maness (Decision – Unanimous, 3R)

Having dispatched top contenders with clinical precision, Nurmagomedov bounced back from his lone UFC defeat to Dvalishvili in January 2025. He has shown growth in late-round pressure and defensive wrestling.

Strengths

• Takedown Defence (79%): Elite ability to stuff opponents’ takedowns and keep the fight standing or initiate scrambles.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (57%): Lands well over half of his attempted power and precision strikes, pressuring foes at range.
• Well-Rounded Grappling: Seven submission wins in 18 victories demonstrate slick transitions and back-control prowess.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time (13:48) shows comfort in championship-distance battles and finishing stronger in later rounds.

Weaknesses

• Moderate KO Power: Only 2 stoppages via strikes; less reliance on one-punch knockouts means more decisions when opponents defend takedowns effectively.
• Takedown Offense (40%): While solid, his takedown success rate can be challenged by elite wrestlers with strong sprawl-and-brawl tactics.
• Limited First-Round Finishes (5): Relies on attrition and grinding opponents rather than quick endings, which could invite early aggression.

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Mario Bautista Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle (submission-oriented)
Record: 16-2-0

Recent Form

• Jun. 2025: Loss to Patrick Mix (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 2024: Win over José Aldo (Decision – Split, 3R)
• Jan. 2024: Win vs. Ricky Simon (Decision – Unanimous, 3R)
• Aug. 2023: Win vs. Damon Blackshear (Decision – Unanimous, 3R)
• Mar. 2023: Submission win vs. Guido Cannetti (Round 1 – 3:18)

Bautista has rebounded impressively from his Mix setback, stringing together key wins over former champion Aldo and top wrestler Simon. He enters this bout battle-tested in three-round wars.

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal (6 wins): Skilled at isolating limbs and working chokes; his grappling chains threaten at any moment.
• First-Round Stoppages (5): Demonstrates explosive starts and finishing instincts early in the fight.
• Significant Strike Defence (56%): Able to slip and counter nearly six out of ten incoming strikes, creating openings for his offense.
• Versatile Striking (49% accuracy): Good combination work, mixing kicks and punches to set up takedowns or clinch entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defence (68%): Vulnerable to heavy wrestlers—Nurmagomedov’s 79% defence could neutralize Bautista’s ground game.
• Take-Down Accuracy (33%): One third success on his own takedowns means he must rely on striking or scramble opportunities.
• Durability in Deep Rounds: Average fight time (9:43) indicates many early finishes; may gas against a relentless pace or high-output wrestler.
• Decision Outcomes: Four of last five fights have gone to the judges, suggesting less finishing consistency as competition ramps up.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Grappling vs. Grappling: Nurmagomedov’s superior takedown defence and wrestling base could stifle Bautista’s submission entries.
• Striking Exchanges: While Umar holds the edge in accuracy and volume, Bautista’s counter-punching and defence make him a dangerous out-counter threat.
• Cardio & Pace: In a potential late-round chess match, Nurmagomedov’s championship-round experience and endurance may tip the scales.

This matchup blends two contrasting Bantamweight profiles—Umar’s championship-caliber MMA toolkit against Bautista’s submission-driven freestyle approach—setting the stage for a classic test of wrestling control, finishing instincts, and strategic depth.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of October 13, 2025, the Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista bantamweight showdown is drawing sharply contrasting moneylines across the top sportsbooks:

• Umar Nurmagomedov (Favorite)

  • BetRivers: -435
  • Bovada: -450
  • BetOnline.ag: -420
  • FanDuel: -480

• Mario Bautista (Underdog)

  • BetRivers: +330
  • Bovada: +335
  • BetOnline.ag: +350
  • FanDuel: +330

Umar Nurmagomedov is the heavy favorite in every market, while Mario Bautista carries underdog status. For maximum value, BetOnline.ag currently offers the best lines on both fighters—-420 on Umar (smallest negative) and +350 on Bautista (largest positive).

Line Movement Analysis

Both fighters have experienced notable swings in their moneylines over the past week, reflecting shifting bettor sentiment and key news in the division.

Mario Bautista (+330 → +355 → +335 → +350)

• Early on October 10, Bautista opened around +280/+300 at Bovada and FanDuel.
• A surge of support from value hunters on October 13 pushed his price out to +355 at multiple books.
• Large sharp-money bets then trimmed the line back, settling at +335 on Bovada and +350 at BetOnline.ag.

This volatility suggests there is still disagreement on Bautista’s upset potential. Those looking for a big payday should lock in a +350 price before late shifts.

Umar Nurmagomedov (-360 → -490 → -450)

• Umar’s price began around -360 to -400 on October 10.
• Heavy early action on Nurmagomedov drove his odds out to -490 mid-day October 13.
• Adjustment by sportsbooks brought him back to -435 at BetRivers and -450 at Bovada, with -420 at BetOnline.ag remaining the most favorable.

The line skew indicates serious backing for Umar, but the best opportunity to back the favorite is at the -420 mark before it drifts further.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you wager $1,000 on each fighter at the current best available odds:

• Mario Bautista (+350) at BetOnline.ag

  • Total Return: $1,000 stake + $3,500 profit = $4,500
  • Implied Win Probability: ~22%

• Umar Nurmagomedov (-420) at BetOnline.ag

  • Total Return: $1,000 stake + $238 profit = $1,238
  • Implied Win Probability: ~80%

No deep math needed—just know that Bautista’s underdog money can multiply your stake dramatically, while Nurmagomedov’s chalk pick protects your bankroll with a high likelihood of a modest payout.

Betting Takeaway

• Underdog Value: If you believe in Bautista’s submission threats and early finishing upside, +350 at BetOnline.ag represents significant upside.
• Favorite Stability: For a safer play on Nurmagomedov’s dominant grappling and striking, -420 locks in the smallest vig and highest implied win rate.
• Line Momentum: Keep an eye on further line shifts—if Umar drifts beyond -450 or Bautista climbs above +350, it may be time to pull the trigger.

With contrasting odds and clear line movement, the Nurmagomedov vs Bautista betting market offers strategic angles for both risk-averse and high-upside bettors. Good luck!