Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis Odds & AI Pick | UFC 328

Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis Fight Analysis

Fight Details

On Saturday, May 9, 2026, featherweights Pat Sabatini and William Gomis will square off on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland, live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The bout is scheduled to begin at approximately 9:00 PM UTC (5:00 PM ET), kicking off what promises to be an explosive night of high-stakes MMA action.

Setting the Stage

This contest pits a seasoned submission specialist against a dynamic knockout artist. In the blue corner, William Gomis (15–3–0) enters as the underdog with opening moneylines at +170 (BetMGM/BetOnline.ag), while in the red corner sits veteran grappler Pat Sabatini (21–5–0), marked as the favorite at –210 (BetMGM) and –200 (BetOnline.ag). The odds reflect Sabatini’s reputation for relentless takedowns and slick Brazilian jiu-jitsu, contrasted by Gomis’s heavy hands and improving wrestling arsenal.

Why You Should Care

1. Styles Make Fights – Sabatini boasts 12 career submission victories and an average fight time under 10 minutes, showcasing his ability to impose grappling control from the opening bell. Gomis counters with 7 knockouts on his resume and a sturdy 61% significant strike defense, making him more than capable of keeping the fight upright and landing fight-ending blows.
2. Recent Form – Sabatini arrives riding a four-fight winning streak, with three unanimous decision victories and a highlight-reel submission over Jonathan Pearce last October. Gomis, meanwhile, is 2–2 in his last four outings but rebounded emphatically with a dominant unanimous decision win over Robert Ruchala last September.
3. Key Metrics – At 35 years old, Sabatini leverages a 51% takedown accuracy and 50% takedown defense, while Gomis, just 28, counters with a higher significant strike accuracy (50%) and a takedown defense rate of 72%. This clash of offensive grappling against defensive wrestling will decide where the fight is won.

Early Prediction

With ample cardio, top-tier jiu-jitsu and a penchant for early finishes (eight first-round stoppages), Pat Sabatini starts as the logical pick for bettors looking to back the favorite on the prelims. However, William Gomis’ status as the underdog at +170 presents value for bettors who believe the Frenchman’s power and evolving wrestling can keep the fight standing long enough to earn him a knockout or surprise decision.

Whether you’re a casual fan tuning in for UFC 328 or a seasoned bettor looking for sharp lines on the Early Prelims, Sabatini vs. Gomis promises contrasting skillsets, high stakes and potentially fight-ending moments from bell to bell. Don’t miss our full breakdown below to uncover the best angles, prop bets and live-round opportunities.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Chimaev vs Strickland can be found on the Chimaev vs Strickland event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Pat Sabatini: The Submission Specialist

Age: 35 | Country: United States | Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Background & Recent Form:
Pat Sabatini (21–5–0) made his UFC debut in February 2021 and has since established himself as one of the featherweight division’s top grapplers. Over his last five outings, Sabatini is 4–1, with a signature submission win over Jonathan Pearce (Oct. 2024) and unanimous decision victories against Joanderson Brito (Apr. 2025) and Chepe Mariscal (Nov. 2025). His only setback came in November 2023, when Diego Lopes scored a first-round TKO.

• 2025-11-15 W Decision (Unanimous) vs Chepe Mariscal
• 2025-04-05 W Decision (Unanimous) vs Joanderson Brito
• 2024-10-12 W Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) vs Jonathan Pearce
• 2023-11-11 L KO/TKO (Head Kick & Punches) vs Diego Lopes
• 2023-06-17 W Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) vs Lucas Almeida

Strengths:

• Elite Grappling: 12 submission wins and 51% takedown accuracy make Sabatini a constant threat to drag opponents to the mat.
• Finishing Instincts: Eight first-round finishes showcase his ability to capitalize early.
• Pace & Cardio: An average fight time of just over nine minutes indicates he can maintain a relentless pace from bell to bell.
• Striking Accuracy: 60% significant strike accuracy—among the highest in the division—allows him to set up takedowns or ground transitions effectively.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense: At 50%, he can be vulnerable to opponents with strong wrestling credentials.
• Striking Defense: A 51% significant strike defense suggests openings in his stand-up exchanges, especially against aggressive punchers.

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William Gomis: The Knockout Artist

Age: 28 | Country:** France | Fighting Style:** Striker / Wrestling Blend

Background & Recent Form:
William Gomis (15–3–0) debuted in the UFC in September 2022 and has shown rapid progression as a knockout threat. In his last five bouts, he is 4–1, with a unanimous decision win over Robert Ruchala (Sep. 2025) and a third-round KO of Yanis Ghemmouri (Sep. 2023). His split decision loss to Hyder Amil in March 2025 remains his sole defeat in that span.

• 2025-09-06 W Decision (Unanimous) vs Robert Ruchala
• 2025-03-01 L Decision (Split) vs Hyder Amil
• 2024-09-28 W Decision (Split) vs Joanderson Brito
• 2023-09-02 W KO/TKO (Punches) vs Yanis Ghemmouri
• 2023-04-22 W Decision (Split) vs Francis Marshall

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: Seven knockout wins and a 61% significant strike defense make him a dangerous counter-puncher.
• Durability: His ability to absorb strikes and maintain composure allows him to weather early grappling attempts.
• Wrestling Defense: At 72%, his takedown defense is above average, enabling him to keep the fight standing.
• Youth & Athleticism: At 28, he brings fresh legs and explosive movement to the cage.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Offense: A 38% takedown accuracy suggests limited wrestling setup versus elite grapplers.
• Ground Threat: With only one submission victory, he may struggle to impose offense if the fight hits the mat.
• Cardio in Deep Waters: A 14:33 average fight time indicates he has tended to go the distance—an area Sabatini could exploit with gnarly top pressure.

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Styles Clash & Key Questions

This matchup boils down to Sabatini’s elite jiu-jitsu and relentless pace versus Gomis’s knockout power and takedown defense. Can Sabatini impose a wrestling-heavy game plan, or will Gomis keep the fight upright and land fight-ending strikes? Bettors should weigh Sabatini’s submission prowess against Gomis’s striking accuracy and durability to find value in this dynamic featherweight collision.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, the featherweight showdown between Pat Sabatini and William Gomis is priced as follows:

• Pat Sabatini: –210 (BetMGM), –200 (BetOnline.ag)
• William Gomis: +170 (BetMGM), +170 (BetOnline.ag)

These lines make Sabatini the clear favorite, while Gomis slots in as the underdog. The 370-point gap (–200 vs. +170) underscores the oddsmakers’ confidence in Sabatini’s grappling pedigree and experience edge. For bettors seeking the best number on the favorite, BetOnline.ag currently offers the superior line at –200 (vs. –210 at BetMGM). For backing the underdog, both BetMGM and BetOnline.ag sit level at +170, so shop your preferred interface.

Line Movement & Big Swings

Examining the odds history reveals significant swings over the last 72 hours—an indicator of money flowing in on both fighters:

• Pat Sabatini (BetOnline.ag):
  • May 1 12:49 PM – –270
  • May 1 1:00 PM – –240
  • May 2 1:01 AM – –205
  • May 2 8:20 AM – –200

• William Gomis (BetOnline.ag):
  • May 1 12:49 PM – +230
  • May 1 1:00 PM – +205
  • May 2 1:01 AM – +175
  • May 2 8:20 AM – +170

Key takeaways:

1. Sabatini’s line trimmed from –270 to –200: a 70-cent adjustment reflecting money on Pat.
2. Gomis’s line shortened from +230 to +170: a 60-cent move signaling confidence in William’s power and takedown defense.

Both fighters saw their odds compress toward the center, an unusual pattern suggesting heavy action on each side. Sharp bettors may interpret this as balanced steam, but casual fans should note the implied market respect for Gomis’s value at +170.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re deciding where to place a $1,000 wager, here’s what your return would look like:

• Betting Pat Sabatini at –200 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Profit: $500 • Total Payout: $1,500
  • Implied Win Probability: ~67%

• Betting William Gomis at +170 (any sportsbook):
  • Profit: $1,700 • Total Payout: $2,700
  • Implied Win Probability: ~37%

With a roughly 67% chance implied on Sabatini and 37% chance on Gomis, bettors must decide if the value lies in backing the favorite’s grappling mastery or gambling on the Frenchman’s power and ever-improving wrestling defense.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Sabatini): BetOnline.ag at –200
• Underdog (Gomis): BetMGM or BetOnline.ag at +170

Shop these lines, monitor for further late-breaking shifts, and lock in your bet before odds tighten any further. Good luck!